Niall Lyons has six selections for this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, Arizona.
Waste Management Phoenix Open
The Waste Management Phoenix Open will be held at TPC Scottsdale, Arizona.
Scheffler, Koepka and Matsuyama have shared six of the last ten renewals of this event. With Simpson winning in 2020 that makes eight of the last ten winners here having won a major either before or after their victory at Phoenix.
The previous nine renewals tell somewhat of a different story in that regard, but maybe the increased intensity here with the escalation of the atmosphere at the 16th and around the course it takes a different type of character to win around here now.
TPC Scottsdale is second only to Augusta National in terms of how course history impacts future results, therefore looking to past form on this track often helps to narrow the field.
Taylor finished runner up in 2023 prior to going one better last year. Scheffler finished 7th before winning here two years on the spin.
Koepka was 3rd the year after winning. Fowler had two runner ups here before winning in 2019.
As ever when playing in the desert a nod to form at similar events such as the American Express or Shriners is wise.
Only two players have made the top 5 here in the last three years having finishing outside the top 25 in strokes gained off the tee for the week.
The winners in recent years have ranked 36th,26th, 8th, 6th and 44th in driving distance so although not necessary it surely helps to hit the ball far at Scottsdale.
There is no doubting the key part of the game here though and that's approach play and greens in regulation.
Taylor ranked 9th and 2nd in those statistics last year when winning. Scheffler ranked 1st and 3rd in those stats when winning in 2023 whilst the year before although he ranked 55th on approach, he still finished 11th in GIR.
His sub standard approach play was fixed with the putter ranking 2nd in the field that week.
Koepka ranked 2nd and 1st in approach/GIR, whilst Simpson ranked 1st and 6th.
It's a ball strikers golf course and the putting surfaces are as smooth and blemish free as they come.
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Waste Management Phoenix Open Tips
- 2pts each-way S.Burns 25/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1.5pts each-way Min Woo Lee 66/1 (1/5 8)
- 1pt each-way D.Thompson 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescore, Bet MGM
- 1pt each-way R.Hojgaard 66/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescore, Bet MGM
- 0.75pt each-way M.Schmid 250/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 0.75pt each-way J.Highsmith 250/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in the past four editions of this tournament.
Sam Burns at 25/1 (Eight Places)
Sam Burns finished 22nd last week at Pebble which was a fine effort given his irons weren't in the best shape throughout the week.
That has somewhat been a theme of late and although it isn't a big issue he will be slightly frustrated given how good his short game has been and he'll be looking to capitalise on a week where he has a good long game.
Pebble on a windy weekend may not be the best place to find his irons but this week should be perfect and given he has been 6th and 3rd the last two years here he has the potential to put it up to Scheffler.
If Scheffler performs this week he will be tough to beat there's no doubt but if any club may be the difference between him winning and not winning it might be the putter.
Scheffler has sorted out his issues in that department but still on any given week it may be the reason why he doesn't win.
Burns has the capability of eclipsing him with that particular club and it's for that reason why he's included.
He hit it really well off the tee last week at Pebble and a small improvement in approach play will see him with plenty of opportunities to score here.
He ranks 8th in the field in birdie or better percentage during the last 18 months and has enough desert form banked to make him an important player here this week.
Min Woo Lee at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Hideki Matsuyama would normally interest here and although I don't quite think the handicapper has the hold of him yet, he hit plenty of wayward shots last week to slightly put me off the scent.
Min Woo Lee is beginning to bubble and although he may be best suited to the Cognizant in a few weeks time, I'll attempt to get ahead of the curve by selecting him here in Arizona.
Min Woo is a special talent and if he happens to improve his iron play could become one of the elite golfers.
Signs in that department are good. For the events we have stats for he has gained on approach now six times in those seven events.
His irons were good in Dubai in January then last week at Pebble he ranked 8th for the week in approach play.
That is an ominous sign and he has the perfect ball flight for long irons and wedges to get close to these pins at TPC Scottsdale.
With little desert experience on the PGA Tour it is difficult to know how he'll get on, but theoretically he should make mince meat of the par 5s here.
He has everything to contend here and with this being his best spell of approach play in his career now is the time to put the money down.
Davis Thompson at 80/1 (Six Places)
Davis Thompson has had a somewhat lacklustre start to this season given his capabilities but his 58th place last week at Pebble maybe wasn't as bad as it looks.
He played very well off the tee but struggled a little with iron play at times, which is understandable given it was his first look at Pebble and experience usually pays dividends there.
He loves a low scoring event, as was evident in 2023 when he nearly won on tour straight out of the traps finishing second at the Amex which ties in nice with this desert track.
5th at Summerlin in October last year was another sign of his likeness for this type of test.
He hits a high ball which helps in desert conditions with firm enough greens and his work around the greens is very decent also.
He will need to see a little improvement with his iron play to go close here but it's not a lot needed and having finished 15th here last year he could fire once again on a course where previous form counts for plenty.
1pt each-way D.Thompson 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescore, Bet MGM
Rasmus Hojgaard at 66/1 (Six Places)
Hayden Springer is an interesting outsider having finished 6th at Torrey Pines and the mind wanders back to the John Deere last Summer where he opened with a 59.
Capable of going very low he may be best played in the top 10/20 markets. I'm happy to give Rasmus Hojgaard a go in his first event of the PGA Tour season as I feel Scottsdale could be a very welcome course for him.
A bomber off the tee and highly capable on approach Rasmus should give himself plenty of opportunities to score here and should the putter behave he could have a great start to his PGA Tour career.
He already has a run out in January finishing 14th in the Dubai Desert Classic, a field littered with big names.
He knows he's on the Ryder Cup march now and I don't think anything will stop him. It must be noted he came out on top against McIlroy in the Irish Open just over four months ago and he took the Irishman to the cliff edge in Dubai coming up just a hair short.
At 23 years of age the future is very bright for this powerhouse and one can not sleep on his chances in events such as this.
A lot will depend on the tournament favourite of course but maybe we'll see a future Ryder Cup type face off this weekend if Rasmus can take to this course on debut.
1pt each-way R.Hojgaard 66/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescore, Bet MGM
Matthias Schmid at 250/1 (Eight Places)
Wyndham Clark is an interesting one at 50/1+ and you'd think this talented sort couldn't be too far away from turning two poor efforts around.
When elite golfers such as him drift to these kind of numbers it's always worth paying attention. His long game being in bad nick last week is too much of a leap though and we'll leave him for another day.
Matthias Schmid missed the cut here on debut last year but there are reasons to suggest he could go much better this time around.
That missed cut was the 4th of 6th in a row to start off the 2024 campaign and he has certainly improved since.
5th and 3rd at the Black Desert and Summerlin are two very fine efforts on similar tests as this with 18 and 19 under being his scores there. He led at the halfway stage at the Shriners.
He was 4th with one round to go last time out at Torrey Pines before he succumbed to a 77 but his iron play was solid that week and should he turn up with a similar game this test should be much mores suitable.
Joe Highsmith at 250/1 (Eight Places)
One at triple figure prices I'm happy to include is Joe Highsmith. He struggled somewhat on his maiden season last year but finished in style with finished of 13-55-6-16-5-11 to secure his tour card for another year.
Highsmith is a very decent ball striker, as was evident in his last start at the Farmers where he hit the ball well off the tee and on approach but his short game was horrendous and he missed the cut by two shots.
Rounds of 64 and 65 a few weeks ago at the AMEX were bookended by rounds of 75 and 76. So there have been glimpses, most notably in the desert and finishing 6th at the Black Desert back in October is another positive.
Down the years here a handful of poor putters have managed a victory and with the snooker table type surfaces he has the chance to put his weakness on the back burner and let his long game do the talking.
If ever there is a place where he might outplay his odds it's here at Scottsdale.
