Niall Lyons has five selections for this week's Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club.
Qatar Masters
The Qatar Masters will be held at Doha Golf Club, Qatar.
In 2020 and 201 this event moved from it's longtime home of Doha Club but this course has held every renewal of the event bar those two dating back to the late 1990s.
Sami Valimaki in 2023 was the latest player who is well versed in wind play to win at this venue and he joined a long list of Champions who have form in similar conditions and in particular links golf.
Paul Lawrie, Ernie Els and Henrik Stenson are three Open Champions who have won at this venue.
Garcia, Bjorn and Scott are three champions here who all blew great chances to win the Open also.
Pepperell, Grace and Wood make up another trio who have some fine links records and in conclusion we are looking to these types of players who are well equipped to score in tricky conditions.
In terms of the statistics it's difficult to pinpoint something concrete, but a solid tee to green display mainly through iron play and work around the greens tend to be the most important aspects to scoring well around here.
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Qatar Masters Tips
- 1.5pts each-way Haotong Li 33/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 1.5pts each-way J.Guerrier 40/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way J.Dean 66/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way R.Gouveia 110/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way T.Merritt 250/1 (1/5 6) Skybet
Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in this tournament in the past three editions.
Haotong Li at 33/1 (Seven Places)
It's difficult to ignore the chances of Haotong Li this week and he makes my staking plan around the 35/1 mark.
Li's career dipped badly a few years ago but he enjoyed a much more profitable 2024 with numerous top 10/20 finishes.
Throughout 2022 and 2023 Li lost all his distance from the tee and there's no doubt recovering that aspect of his game has helped results since.
It is now six made cuts on the trot and he has started this year with finishes of 52-22-24.
His irons in Ras were in sparkling form and only a poor week on the greens stopped him from competing there. Last week his putting was much improved but he didn't quite hit the heights with his approach play.
3rd in an Open Championship and a winner in the Dubai Desert this is a good profile for a winner here in Qatar.
All parts of his game are not far off and although he's just a 'fair' price this week he has to be among the leading contenders.
Julien Guerrier at 40/1 (Seven Places)
Julien Guerrier finally got off the mark in October by impressively overcoming Jorge Campillo in a playoff winning the Andalucia Masters.
Four shots clear of Jon Rahm that week will have definitely given him all the confidence he needs to go on to win again and he wasn't a million miles off in the Nedbank in December finishing 6th.
Three top 25 finishes since including the one last week in Bahrain now means the Frenchman is on a run of eight cuts made in a row and having missed only one in his last 17.
That's a really nice run for someone just shy of the 40 year old mark and having misfired with his irons in Ras there was a fair improvement in that department last week in Bahrain.
With numerous close calls down the last number of years he gets himself into the mix an awful lot and should he turn up with those irons firing once again he'll be a candidate here over the weekend.
Joe Dean at 66/1 (Seven Places)
Joe Dean is hard to turn down once again and I'll include him for the second week on the trot having turned in a top 15 effort last week in Bahrain.
One of the more consistent performers on the tour for the last twelve months Dean can consider himself a little unfortunate not to yet land a victory.
5th in Ras was followed by 13th last week both exceptionally played from tee to green.
He putted well in Ras but last week that club deserted him and was the reason for him not getting into the final few groups at the weekend.
It doesn't look far off for Dean though and the continued English success on the DPWT can only breed more confidence and desire and Dean looks more than capable.
Ricardo Gouveia at 110/1 (Seven Places)
Ricardo Gouveia finished 7th here back in 2016 and although he hasn't done anything of note here since he looks like a much better golfer these days and could give us a run at triple figure prices.
The Portugal native has always been one to play well in the wind and should it blow this week it would play even more into his hands.
Recent efforts have certainly caught the eye starting with Genesis back in October where he finished just one shot back of Ben An and Tom Kim.
24th at the Aussie PGA, 14th in Dubai then 21st last week mean he is playing some really nice stuff and he should take confidence with some of the names he has mixed it with over the last few months.
He finished with a 67 on Sunday and if he can pick up from there this looks like an ideal test.
Troy Merritt at 250/1 (Six Places)
Callum Tarren was a sign last week not to sleep on those dropping from the PGA Tour no matter what their form.
Tarren had missed the cut in the Bahamas on the KFT whilst another missed cut in Ras was hard to get over.
Nevertheless at halfway it was a reminder of just how much a drop in grade this is and bar the top 10 or 20 or so in the market there may not be a whole deal separating the likes of Tarren (even in poor form) from the rest.
For this reason I'm happy to include Troy Merritt here and I'll have a small investment. Merritt missed the cut last week in Bahrain but it was maybe a tall order making the trip from California having played the Farmers.
He opened with a 69 there and if you throw this entire field on the North Course at Torrey Pines there wouldn't be loads ahead of him.
He went really well for three rounds in Bermuda in November also so this double PGA Tour winner has a lot more in the bag than plenty of those around him in the same price. Worth chancing giving how Tarren turned it around last week.
