Genesis Invitational

Following the devastating fires that hit Pacific Palisades just a month ago, the Genesis Invitational is forced to move from its regular home of Riviera to Torrey Pines. The main aspect in choosing Torrey is that the infrastructure is already in place having held the Farmers just a couple of weeks ago. 

For the stats tables I will include the last three renewals of the Farmers, including the tournament just a couple of weeks ago. A few weeks ago only one of the top five broke into the top 30 in driving distance. Last year Pavon won ranking 38th in driving distance whilst 3rd placed Lashley was 71st in the same statistic. 

Of the six who made the frame in 2023 only one broke into the top 30 in Driving Distance for the week. In 2022 List ranked 12th in that department but rankings of 30, 28 and 74 made up three of the other top five. Reed won the previous year ranking 51st in driving distance so it is certainly no necessity to be one of the longest in the field. 

We can clearly see though that a solid tee to green game is needed mostly made of up approach play and work around the greens. There are a few ways to skin this feline though and it's difficult to rule out many simply by analysing their stats. In Reed's win for instance a poor enough week with the irons was saved by a tremendous short game. 

A West Coast trait is often Poa Annua greens and they feature once again at Torrey Pines. This often gives Californian's an advantage having grown up on these surfaces and the odd time it'll lend itself to those who struggle on the greens as it's a shade more volatile than Bermuda. 

None more so was this evident than when Luke List won in 2022 having struggled all his career with the putter then producing one of his best efforts on the greens in many years. Long irons are crucial here, especially from 175+ yards and those excelling in those numbers usually have a head start on the field.

Genesis Invitational Tips

Thomas Detry was possessed last Sunday and having backed him here at Torrey a few weeks ago I was feeling a little disappointed having thought he didn't look far away. His Major record recently is eye catching also and that always is a positive here at Torrey. I was extremely tempted to back him for this week again off the back of his performance in Arizona. 

So many in this field, including a handful in the top quarter of the betting are not doing anything special, and there's many above Detry in the market who haven't produced a performance like his in a number of years. I'm ready to be punished, but I'll be backing Patrick Cantlay this week. 

It was only Monday afternoon when I sent a message to Sir Benjamin Coley suggesting the second tier golfers should be avoided until one of them gets over the line, mainly referring to the likes of Morikawa, Thomas and Cantlay among a few others. 

However, anything north of 28/1 here just looks far too big. His iron play was in really solid nick last time out at Pebble Beach and he doesn't often drift to this big a number. 

The one pitfall is that he has struggled on these greens down the years but 15th in the US Open back in 2021 was a solid effort with the putter and he can easily overcome that one particular area. Not many appeal in the top quarter of the market here but at the prices he looks to one worth siding with.

2pts each-way P.Cantlay 35/1 (1/4 5) Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Priced Up, Starsports

It wouldn't surprise me to see an upturn in Corey Conners' fortunes this week given he is hitting his long irons reasonably well. His short game is suffering though, and the Poa Annua greens here might not be the best place for him to try find it. 

Will Zalatoris was a 25/1 shot here a few weeks ago when pulling out last minute and now we see double his price and the strength of field doesn't put me off getting involved again. Zalatoris has thrived in the strongest fields and before his latest bout of injuries was exemplary in the Majors. 

Harris English was the latest golfer to win at this venue having gone close in numerous Majors and Zalatoris may just be the next. Following his non-appearance here a few weeks ago he started slowly at Pebble Beach before finishing 68-69 over the weekend to finish just inside the top 50. 

He continues to tip-toe in his progress but a return to Torrey Pines and in particular four rounds on the South Course should suit. He putts well here and this year certainly looks to be playing better golf than his results suggest.

1.25pts each-way W.Zalatoris 50/1 (1/5 6) Skybet

Rasmus Hojgaard could easily bounce back from a disappointing Sunday in Arizona and the course here looks a really good fit. However quotes of around 40/1 are very off putting and we shall wait for another day to try and land the Dane's first PGA Tour victory.

As I mentioned last week Min Woo Lee might be most suited to the Cognizant in a few weeks’ time but I continue to be enamoured by the way he's hitting the ball and he looks as close as ever to landing a victory Stateside. After a few really eye catching weeks with his approach play, it was that part of the game that let him down last week on route to a tie for 12th place at Scottsdale. 

He hit the ball tremendously well off the tee and if that continues it's just a matter of time before the other elements fall into place. His long irons are where he's excelling in the approach department and that bodes well for a trip to Torrey given the emphasis on approach play from 175-200+ yards. 

There no doubt I have him earmarked for a few weeks’ time but I'd kick myself should he come through on a challenge that also suits and we weren't on. We'll give him a whirl here at anything of 50/1 or above.

1pt each-way Min Woo Lee 60/1 (1/5 6) Skybet

Taylor Pendrith has been backed early doors, into as short as 28/1 and that surprises me a lot. He has the game for Torrey but you'd need to be a brave man to invest in him at these odds. A large part of the equation here is scrambling and if that weren't the case I'd be much more inclined to support Hovland at anything above 40/1.

It's some turnaround for Pendrith to be significantly shorter than Hovland, and I'm not convinced that's right, even in the short term. Max Greyserman has had numerous near misses in his short PGA Tour career to date and whether or not he is ready to take a Championship of this magnitude is doubtful, but at anything of 80/1 or above I'm happy to pay to find out. 

On his day I think he could possibly contend with and beat the best of fields, and for that reason I'm more keen to play him at bigger odds in these events rather than get involved with him around 20/1 in weaker events when he has spurned a few chances. 

Greyserman finished down the field last week but his irons were in good nick and it's important to note he gains the majority of his shots on approach from 200+ yards. His irons didn't fire here a few weeks ago when finishing 48th but he putted reasonably well and at 80/1+ there is fair upside to these odds.

1pt each-way M.Gresyerman 90/1 (1/5 6) Skybet

Wyndham Clark is another who has been backed early and having mentioned him in my preview last week I was kicking myself early when he landed the first round lead. It didn't quite go to plan thereafter but a top 20 was still a solid showing and I'm surprised he's an even bigger price this week than last. 

With two wins in California he is a dangerous man in these parts but it must be said his US Open victory is an outlier in his Major form. In 11 other Major showings before and since he has yet to break into the top 30. Nevertheless his ceiling is high and although he may have returned to floor level lately he remains a very talented sort capable of scaring the best in the game. 

As I mentioned last week when you back elite golfers when they drift to huge numbers you will get plenty of interest with the thinking being that they couldn't ever be too far away from recapturing some of their best form. That was evident last week during round one and with his long iron ability I'm happy to chance him here at these prices. 

1pt each-way W.Clark 80/1 (1/5 6) Quinnbet, BetGoodwin