Kenya Open

After a week break the DPWT returns to Kenya and the Muthaiga GC for their fourth year on the spin of hosting their national open.

Muthaiga doesn't play as long as the yardage suggests being above sea level and it's a course that's very difficult to overpower. Dog legs and tall trees make it much more of a plotters golf course and that has played out in the three years stats that we have seen.

Of the 17 players here who have made the top 5 and ties the last three years, only 2 players did so by finishing inside the top 20 for driving distance.

Accuracy has been a much more relevant barometer of success here whilst work around the greens also features heavily in the equation.

With a short course at altitude form at Crans Sur Sierre certainly becomes relevant as does from around Wentworth where you have to deal with the tall pines.

Statistics for the last three years are listed below.

 

Kenya Open Tips

Connor Syme has started this season in eye catching form and looks a really nice bet at anything above 33/1 this week.

The Scot hit the ball exceptionally well in Dubai and Ras on route to two top 30 finishes. On both occasions he was thwarted by a poorly performing short game. Next time out it was the opposite with the short game saving him in Bahrain to finish 34th.

The interesting thing to note is there was a strong draw bias that week where those who teed off in the opposite side of the draw to Syme got a 2+ shot advantage. Given his finish there that bodes well for another good week, this time on a course much more suited.

He hits an accurate ball from the tee and given he has trio of top tens across this course, Wentworth and Crans Sur Sierre Syme rates as my top bet for the week. I wasn't expecting much over the 33/1 so I'm delighted to be getting on at 50/1.

2pts each-way C.Syme  50/1  (1/5 7) Paddypower

Jorge Campillo skipped his defence of this title last year by heading to Mexico to start his duties on the PGA Tour and although there were a few highlights he looks much more at home on a tour that doesn't swallow him up whole.

Campillo is a diminutive character who can taste success on courses such as these and given how he won here two years ago I'm happy to include him in the hope that he will mythically defend his 2023 title. The course is perfect for the Spaniard who can manouevre his way throughout this tight layout with precision.

13th the year before his victory means he has a great record here and whose to say what could have happened should he have teed it up here last year instead of heading to Mexico. I was expecting him to be strong enough jolly this week so I'm happy to take anything of 22/1 or above.

2pts each-way J.Campillo  25/1  (1/5 7) Paddypower

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra takes a crack at the DPWT this week, his first jaunt to this tour since the Andalucia Masters last October. Chacarra landed a LIV Tour victory back in October of 2022 when he won in Bangkok but it's safe to say it didn't quite to planned for him there afterwards.

Nevertheless he landed another Asian Tour event in between and has plenty of solid efforts which makes him an interesting prospect in this field. I don't think we can underestimate just how much of a drop in grade this is at times and although it's difficult to get a hold of where exactly Chaccara is at I'm prepared to take the risk.

He has three top 6 finishes on the Asian tour on the trot, including 5th last time out in India a few weeks ago where he played alongside Bryson Dechambeau and Anirban Lahiri in the final round. That's the kind of company he has been keeping in those events and it should bring him on plenty.

At only 24 years old he has a lot to play for and seeing fellow former LIV tour operator Laurie canter win a few weeks ago should give him ample inspiration to attempt a similar feat.

1.5pts each-way E.Chacarra  35/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Martin Couvra looks a little hard to turn down at anything bigger than 50/1 and quotes of 66/1 look really nice. The Frenchman has taken to the DPWT like a duck to water and shouldn't be underestimated around this track.

It would appear to me that his strengths will lie around the more strategic courses and he showed that when 7th at Leopard Creek in December. 4th in Bahrain and 5th in Qatar were excellent pieces of work and there's no reason to think he is going to stop there.

He has been extremely accurate from the tee since his DPWT berth and I'm surprised at his odds here. He simply can not be left off the staking plan.

1.25pt each-way M.Couvra  55/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Brandon Wu has finished 2nd and 3rd in two of his last three attempts at the Mexico Open which is taking place this week on the PGA Tour, but having lost his card he is now teeing it up on the DPWT.

So far he has made three cuts in a row, which is better than most of those who have had a similar fate across the water. Wu was once thought of as someone with a very high ceiling, especially after winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2020. It hasn't quite worked out since but runner ups in both Mexico and at Pebble Beach go a long way to explaining how good he can be on his day.

His short game has been fairly impressive to date this year and he will benefit from not needing to hit the ball as far this week. He is well experienced in much tougher fields than this and should he climb the leaderboard into the weekend he should have enough in the locker to take care of the majority of these. Like Tarren a few weeks ago who went well for a long way in Bahrain, those dropping in grade must be closely watched and it looks like we've finally reached a decent venue for Wu to score well on.

1pt each-way B.Wu  66/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market