Mexico Open

The Mexico Open will be held at Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico.

Jake Knapp gained his maiden tour victory last year in a similar fashion as to how Finau and Rahm won the previous two years.  

What all three have in common is they both hit the ball a long way off the tee and with others in contention such as Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Champ we can safely assume the course lends itself to the longer hitters.

A par 71 measuring close to 7500 yards suggests this will be dominated by the bigger hitters once again.

With Paspalum fairways and greens a nod to form at Coco Beach and Corales could prove fruitful as well as results from San Antonio, another Norman designed course.

Rahm was the longest driver in the field when winning back in 2022 and the first and second in 2023 both ranked in the top two for strokes gained off the tee.

This is a course where length really pays and anyone who has prior form on Paspalum greens will be of particular interest.

Long irons are also a big part of the equation here, similar to Torrey Pines.

Proximity stats from 175+ yards are worth a glance here as that's where the majority of approaches will come from.

Below is a look at the top performers in the past three editions of this tournament.

 

Mexico Open Tips

Max McGreevy lit it up on the Korn Ferry Tour last year with a couple of victories and when he won the Dunlop Phoenix event in November it looked like things had finally clicked. It has been a poor start to 2025 though with 3 missed cuts and a withdrawal.

His long game hasn't been in too bad a shape though and it wouldn't surprise me should he bounce back in a weak enough affair. Hitting the ball a long way here is important though and he doesn't quite have that in the locker.

One who can get it out there and is capable of going very low around here is Stephan Jaeger and he could become the latest in a growing list of European winners on the PGA Tour this season. Rasmus, Bhatia and Kitayama all appeal at the front end of the market and they tick plenty of the requisite boxes this week, but it's difficult to get involved at those odds and we'll travel further down the market in search of some better value. 

Paspalum grass means chipping around the greens is that little bit easier with the ball always sitting up. That has helped Hovland gain a couple of victories in these conditions and it should help Erik Van Rooyen whose main weakness is work around the greens.

More than long enough off the tee to compete here Van Rooyen also has the benefit of his long irons being fairly consistent. He gains more on the field the further away the approach shot is and from 200+ yards he is a lot better than average.

It has been a poor enough start to the season for the South African but he has shown glimpses in each department to suggest it's all a matter of it coming together on the one single week. Having won in Mexico before and finishing 8th here last year he has a solid record in these parts and rates one of the better bets in the field around this odds bracket. 

1pt each-way E. Van Rooyen  66/1  (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescorebet, Bet MGM

Jose Luis Ballester is a promising young Spaniard and it'd be no surprise to me should he play well here this week. He may be best played in top 20/40 markets though. Tim Widing is another European who could outplay odds of 250/1+ this week.

Jake Knapp could figure once again but he looks suitably priced. I am surprised Nicola Hojgaard is a bigger price than Niklas Norgaard and although the latter has shown plenty and is a great prospect, I don't agree with that pricing.

Nicolai's first outing of the year came at Scottsdale and he faired reasonably well with a top 40 finish. His long game has been in decent nick for a while now including the end of last year where if there was any suffering it was with his short game.

The Dane has made both cuts here but chipped and putted poorly on both occasions. When it comes to hitting the ball a long way and honing in on accuracy with long irons, there aren't a whole lot better in the field than Hojgaard.

The recent spate of European winners is sure to spur these guys on and he is more than equipped to win an event of this quality. He is another with Torrey form having finished runner up there to Pavon last year and there's every chance he puts his best foot forward here.

1pt each-way N.Hojgaard  55/1  (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescorebet, Bet MGM

Kristoffer Ventura has struggled to establish himself on the PGA Tour and having spent the last three years on the Korn Ferry Tour has another crack at the whip having finished inside the top 25 to gain his tour card last year.

Three made cuts from four is a promising start to 2025, most notably the 4th place at Torrey for the Farmers three weeks ago. That may prove significant as Jake Knapp was the latest with form there to win at this venue when he finished 3rd at Torrey last year.

The previous two winners and runner ups Finau and Rahm also have a host of form at Torrey Pines. The big relation is the distance in approach shots with the large majority coming in from 175+ yards. Long irons need to be on point and Ventura has been reasonable efficient from 200+ these last few months.

He made a hole in one at the Amex the week prior to Torrey so there have certainly been a few highlights in the opening month. This course should suit and having been in Hovland's shadow the last number of years this 29 year old Norwegian may just be about to bloom.

1pt each-way K.Ventura  80/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

With value thin on top of the betting board I'd diving deeper and I'm happy to include Jackson Suber in my staking plan this week. The Floridian will be capable in any winds that materialise here over the week and this quick learner can take advantage of this weaker field. Suber turned pro in 2022 and spent 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour where he narrowly missed on gaining his tour card.

He put it right last year finishing inside the top 25 courtesy of back to back top 3 finishes having made the cut at his first Major Championship, the US Open. He came through a three man playoff to be first alternate for that US Open so clearly has plenty about him.

He has achieved relatively quickly and although still seeking his first Professional victory he can take heart from what Knapp did here last year. 6th at the Sony in January was a fine result whilst 56th at Torrey is certainly no disgrace given the challenges there.

His iron play is in good nick and he hits it far enough to contend here, so anything of 80/1 or above is interesting. 

1pt each-way J.Suber  100/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Ranking 21st in strokes gained approach last time out at Torrey Pines, Ricky Castillo is a lively sort in this field and again players such as these at this venue look a much better play than risking those towards the front end of the market.

Like Suber, experience in the Florida winds is an advantage heading to this course this week. Castillo is another really fast learner and he showed that when winning on the Korn Ferry Tour in Wichita on his very first appearance on that circuit.

He is a streaky sort who has kicked off his PGA Tour career with 43rd in the Amex and 15th at the Farmers having missed the cut at Waialae. He hits the ball a mile and his approach work has been up to scratch lately also. He is only 23 years old and looks ready to contend in these slightly weaker fields so I'm happy to give him a run this week at the prices.

1pt each-way R.Castillo  100/1  (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescorebet, Bet MGM