Niall Lyons has six tips covering the Cognizant Classic at PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida this week.
Cognizant Classic
The Cognizant Classic (formerly Honda Classic) will be held at PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Outside of the Majors this course always ranks among the toughest few with winning scores seldom getting into the high teens. In fact only four times in the last twelve renewals has the winning score gotten into double figures under par, and on two of those occasions it was 4 and 5 shots back to second place.
This is certainly a week where driving accuracy trumps driving distance. Last year Eckroat ranked 3rd in driving accuracy. The year prior only one player in the top 20 in driving distance for the week finished inside the top 9 on the leaderboard, whilst four of the top 6 in driving accuracy filled those spots. In 2022 Straka led the driving accuracy stat when winning so it's clear ball striking is key when it comes to making a score around PGA National.
Weather forecast is always important around here also as wind plays havoc with some approach shots, especially the par 3s in the 'bear trap' (holes 15 through 17). It's no surprise we have a long list of winners and contenders here who have played well at Open Championships. Fowler, Scott, Harrington, McIlroy, Els, Hamilton, Leonard, Kuchar, Parnevik, Calcavecchia, O'Meara and Price are a handful to have won this event and either won or gone very close to winning the Open Championship.
2022 Champion Sepp Straka was runner up to Brian Harman in last year's Open Championship so there may be clues as to who could contend here looking at recent Open results.
Results in the Sony Open at Waialae are another angle to look at with many having performed well on both within a short space of time.
Below is a look at the top performers in the past four editions of this tournament.
Cognizant Classic Tips
- 2pts each-way T.Pendrith 30/1 (1/4 5) BetVictor, Betfred
- 2pts each-way Min Woo Lee 30/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
- 1.5pts each-way B.Horschel 45/1 (1/5 10) Ladbrokes, Coral
- 1.25pts each-way A.Svensson 125/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1pt each-way J.Dahmen 110/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
- 0.75pt each-way D.Willett 300/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
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The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago was littered with the biggest names in the sport when Ludvig Aberg added to his winning tally beating the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy in the process. What was remarkable that week was that Canadian Taylor Pendrith went off extremely well backed at 28/1.
I was aghast at the price to be honest, even more so at the support he received at those odds, but rightly or wrongly that's what he went off eventually finishing 50th. He hit the ball really well off the tee that week at Torrey but the rest of his game suffered a little, especially his putting.
Better can be expected in that department back on Bermuda this week and given his ball striking statistics over the last number of months he must be on the short list here. Scrambling could be the part of his game that holds him back this week but prior to the Genesis his ball striking was tremendous and he should be able to hit more greens than most here.
With his prowess off the tee he doesn't exactly fit the perfect profile of a winner here but he should he find that distance and accuracy once again he will be a real threat. Possibly the second time in three weeks at Torrey Pines was just a bit much for him and we'll see a better turn out here. Either way, given that he went off 28/1 in a field that included the world numbers 1 and 2 then any similar odds here must be taken.
I'll be taking three from towards the top of the market here and a couple from further down and next on my list is Min Woo Lee. The Australian has started this year off in consistent fashion with top 20s coming in Dubai then at Pebble and Scottsdale.
His irons let him down slightly last time out at Torrey Pines but overall that has been an outlier and he has made significant progress in that department. Iron play has always been the one glaring weakness in his game but this year there have been gains and if he continues on that path I expect him to win or go very close to winning on the PGA Tour this season.
PGA National may be the pick of the bunch for Min Woo having finished runner up last year and fitting the perfect profile. He has a links win to his name as well as solid form in windy conditions and to date he has a solid Major record despite not really threatening.
His experience on the sand belt courses in Australia is also an advantage and that has played out during the history of this event.
Adam Scott and Matt Jones have won here in the last decade whilst Appleby won back in the late 90s. Min Woo Lee and Craig Parry add to the list of runners up as does Geoff Ogilvy who was the bride here on three separate occasions.
2pts each-way Min Woo Lee 30/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Eight time PGA Tour winner Billy Horschel has come close to winning this on a handful of occasions and I see no reason why he can't go close once again.
The reigning BMW PGA Champion has missed his last couple of cuts but it's worth noting that Torrey Pines is one that wouldn't suit. Nevertheless his iron play during both of those events has been solid and a return to PGA National should see him improve.
Having won in Punta Cana in April that means Horschel has won twice in the last ten months and there's not many in the field with a record as prolific as his. Horschel has experience in droves to cope with the perils of PGA National and his recent Major record is another positive having finished 8th in the PGA and runner up at the Open.
Major winners and contenders have a tendency to go well here given the danger lurking around every corner and there is certainly an argument that Horschel is overdue here.
It seems crazy to say that Horschel is yet to play in a Ryder Cup but that's the reality and he will not be giving up easily on a place in that USA side later this year. This represents one of his better chances.
Sami Valimaki has proven himself in windy conditions before and should the wind play it's part during the tournament we could see the better side of him. Thriston Lawrence is another who could be much more suited to this test than last week.
At triple figure prices I prefer Adam Svensson who could benefit from a return to PGA National. The Canadian finished 9th here on only his second appearance having been well placed at halfway and has missed the cut here just once in five tries.
Add in a top 10 at Waialae and his victory at the RSM Classic in 2023 and we have someone who is well equipped to deal with these conditions. A couple of years ago he held the lead at Sawgrass through 36 holes so clearly he excels at venues where there is much more of a premium on ball striking.
His iron play has been excellent this year, even when he has been missing cuts so there is plenty to like about Adam this week at any triple figure prices.
It does feel like Joel Dahmen's demons are all too under the microscope for him to land another victory but there are plenty of positives about the way he's playing and I want him on my staking plan in Florida.
He ranks 1st in the field in proximity from 150-200 in the last six months and his ball striking has been really solid for months now. His short game can come under big pressure here but with less wind forecast here than usual then maybe this is one of his better chances here.
He enjoys a firmer golf course which is what can happen here over the weekend, and that was evident when finishing 9th at Torrey Pines last month. A top 6 in Mexico was compiled by ranking 11th from tee to green whilst scrambling to get up and down 23 times out of 31 attempts is a big positive heading to PGA National.
His only win came in really windy conditions and if there is another to come Florida wouldn't surprise me. Confidence should have been steadily building with Joel over the last few months and this is the ideal venue to put his accuracy off the tee and with his irons to the test.
One I am prepared to risk at big odds is Danny Willett. The Englishman surprised many by a decent start in last years Masters but again it all went the way of the pear afterwards. 21st in the Nedbank in December was a positive but it was his performance at Torrey Pines that perks the interest here.
9th there, admittedly with the majority of his scoring achieved on the greens, was an excellent effort and maybe the 2016 Masters Champion is showing some signs of resuscitation. You don't finish 9th at Torrey without hitting the ball really well and it's on these tougher tests where Willett will hold a greater chance.
He said he was injury free after Torrey which could mean a recovery is more possible than what we previously thought. I'm wary of being sucked in by one good effort, mainly with the putter, but it's a test that should suit and he's a big price.
It is a low risk wager with a high upside should he continue in the manner in which he left California.
