Niall Lyons has four best bets for for the Arnold Palmer Invitational including one no-brainer selection tipped at 100/1.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational will be held at Bay Hill Club, Orlando, Florida.
Three of the last five here have been won in single digits under par though and providing the rain stays away we can guarantee a firm golf course with some juicy rough.
This is one course that tests all facets of the game and you'll find it tough to get away with it if any single part of your game is not on point.
That plays out in the stats and as you see below driving distance and driving accuracy are much the same. 1st and 3rd in driving accuracy last year both finished inside the top 5. Kitayama and English both hit the most fairways in 2023 when finishing 1st and 2nd.
However, the second longest driver in the field was joint second in the shape of McIlroy. DeChambeau won in 2021 topping the driving distance stat also. 30% of approach shots here come in from 200+ yards so the iron game is key and it may pay to look to those who excel from those distances.
Unlike Mexico a few weeks ago though, much more danger awaits here with water and high rough gobbling up approach shots not hit perfectly. That means scrambling becomes a part also and the leader in that stat has featured in the top 5 two of the last four years.
Therefore, no part of the game can be neglected here and perhaps the best stat to look to will be tee to green. Those ranked 1st, 2nd, 5th and 6th from tee to green last year finished inside the top 5.
Five of the top ten in that statistic made the frame in 2023, three of the top ten the year before, and five of the top ten in 2021. Tee to green experts excel here, whether making gains by distance or accuracy off the tee, and those who arrive in Florida without good numbers in this stat recently may struggle.
Below is a look at the top performers in the past four editions of this tournament.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips
- 5pts WIN R.McIlroy 9/1 Skybet
- 1pt each-way C.Conners 60/1 (1/5 7) WilliamHill
- 1pt each-way S.Theegala 75/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
- 0.75pt each-way M.Fitzpatrick 100/1 (1/5 6) Skybet
Bet365
- Slick, clean interface
- Full suite of safer gambling options including profit/loss
- Market leading all customer offers across all sports
We backed Scottie Scheffler here last year when he came out on top after seemingly overcoming one or two putting issues.
The 13/2 on offer last year was very fair and I'm extremely surprised at how short he is this week. His comeback from the hand injury has been impressive but if anything there's a slightly worry that he has lot a little bit of length since and his iron play the last two events hasn't quite been at the standard we expect.
All the same his record here is phenomenal, as it is in Florida but you'd need to be brave enough to bet around 7/2. Instead at more than double that price I'm more than happy to go with Rory McIlroy this year who for my money is playing better golf than Scheffler and who may be in the throws of something really special.
The Irishman has won two of his last four starts dating back to the DPWTC back in November and the manner in which he coasted to victory at Pebble Beach was a sign of just how comfortable he is right now. A top 20 at the Genesis was a solid effort given he had a really poor week on the greens, his worst in over 7 months in fact.
He putts well here at Bayhill and he has only twice been out of the top 10 here in his last seven attempts. Should he win this there's a small possibility he could go off favourite for the first Major of the year. Xander Schauffele has only played once in the last 5 months (Sentry in January) so he may well be undercooked.
Morikawa, Cantlay and Thomas' losing runs are stacking up and I don't quite see the value in investing in these guys right now. Maybe the best tactic is to wait for one of them to win and then one or two of the rest may follow. In the case of McIlroy I feel around a course that he clearly likes it may take a great effort to beat him. He rates the much better bet than the jolly.
Corey Conners missed his first two cuts here at Bayhill but has since gotten familiar and played fairly well here since. 3rd back in 2021 was his best and he has finished 11th, 21st and 18th since. 24th last time out at Torrey was a fine effort given his iron play wasn't exactly on song that week and you wouldn't expect it to stay like that for long.
Ball striking is where Conners excels and should he manage another good week on the greens here he could be a danger to those at the top of the market. Truth be told I don't think there's a lot between the likes of Conners and those priced around the 20/1 mark these days and I favour him slightly at the prices over Viktor Hovland. Hovland was 5th on approach on day one at Torrey last time out, and hit the ball well off the tee on both days.
However he missed the cut on the number and that was down to a poor day with the irons on day two. It is difficult to see him put four rounds together here so for that reason he is overlooked in favour of the Canadian. Conners has shown on numerous occasions he can mix it in the best of fields and Bayhill really ought to be a venue on which he can make hay.
Sahith Theegala has finished 6th and 14th the last two years here and looks one to side with at fair odds. When Theegala won the Fortinet back in September of 2023 he was expected to go on and claim multiple more but so far another victory has eluded him.
The huge talent clearly remains and he has gone close on numerous occasions since most notably with runner ups both at the Sentry and the Heritage. He has often thrived in the stronger fields and a 17th placed finish last time out at Torrey Pines was a fine effort given he didn't hit the ball all that well off the tee and on approach.
Improvements can be made in that department as a whole but the ability is there to hit lovely numbers in those statistics too and the week that he does he may just blitz a field apart. His short game is in great nick which ia a plus around any venue, but definitely at Bayhill. His college teammate Joe Highsmith won in impressive fashion last weekend and that may just provide the inspiration for Sahith to land his second tour victory this week just down the road.
Finally I'm surprised at how big Matthew Fitzpatrick is this week and feel he has to be worth a small wager. The Englishman missed the cut here last year but prior to that his previous five efforts read 14-9-10-9-2.
This course really suits Fitzpatrick and he hasn't quite got the best out of his golf lately. 24-48CUT-49 makes for poor enough reading this year but it's worth noting that his ball striking throughout has been reasonably good. Any sort of upturn with the short game could see him perform well here and he's a no-brainer bet this week at anything above 66/1.
