Niall Lyons has six betting tips for the The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass - golf's unofficial 5th major.
Players Championship
TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The Players Championship at Sawgrass is ingrained in all of our brains whether it be from watching since a child, or religiously playing the back 9 on gaming consoles.
The 17th will provide plenty of drama and a little breeze there can cause absolute carnage. Narrowing down the list of potential winners here is never easy as down the years we've had the plodding type winners of Ames, Clark, Choi, Funk and Simpson compared to the more swash buckling styles of Mickelson, Scheffler, McIlroy, Day and Thomas.
There have been little in the way of surprises either with only two of the last ten winners not having previously won a major or gone onto win one. That gives a strong profile of the types of golfers who can win here and narrowing the list down to players who have won in similar strength fields, or even Majors may prove beneficial.
Driving distance was an advantage last year with four of the top 5 ranking inside the top 15 in that statistic. Scheffler led the field in driving distance when winning in 2023 but none of the other top 5 were inside the top 30 in the same stat.
None of the top 4 in 2022 made it inside the top 20 in driving distance whilst 11th in DD was the best in the top 5 the year before. Despite the water that awaits errant drives here driving accuracy has played little importance in the outcome of the tournament either although Scheffler topped that stat last year.
Proximity with the irons from 100-150 yards looks like an area where we could narrow the field and those not performing in that distance will have trouble scoring around here.
Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in the last four editions of this tournament.
The Players Championship Tips
- 2.75pts each-way X.Schauffele 22/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1.25pts each-way S.Straka 50/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1.25pts each-way J.Day 60/1 (1/5 8) Betfred
- 1pt each-way W.Zalatoris 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1pt each-way A.Rai 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1pt each-way N.Taylor 150/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
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Nobody quite knew what to expect of Xander Schauffele last week upon return from injury but a made cut can be considered a minor win.
What's better is that he was pain free and a final round 69 suggests there is every chance he kicks on. He talked on Sunday about picking up the pace now and maybe it's a little too easy to forget how dominant he was towards the end of the 2024 season.
Two well deserved and well earned victories in the PGA and Open Championships finally put him where he belonged. His ball striking was fine on return in the Sentry then upon reappearance last week similar transpired where the short game was the inadequate part of his game.
Now his long game isn't quite up to the standards he was producing last year, but he sounds very pleased with how it went last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a return to Sawgrass should be a slight let up after the difficulty levels last week. Xander has a pair of runner up finishes here so has all the experience banked to make a bold fist of it now back to fitness.
If we were asked last Summer what price Xander would be for this we'd have said closer to the 10/1 mark so more than double that is enticing given he had a solid week on return and found his scoring boots on Sunday.
Sepp Straka has quite rightfully taken his place inside the worlds top 20 and a second victory in Florida can not be ruled out here this week. The Austrian has taken steady steps towards this stage in his career and if you had to map out a perfect route to success his would be ideal given he has overcome each hurdle just about when you'd expect him to. That culminated in a Ryder Cup victory last year then his win in California in January made him three time PGA Tour winner.
Of course one of those was at the nearby Honda and his skillset for this kind of test are second to none. A straight driver of the golf ball is always an advantage around here but really it's Straka's iron game that has elevated him to this new position in the game.
He ranks 9th in strokes gained approach for the season to date and has seen significant improvement this year in that already performing department. If the rain dumps down here and the course plays extremely long then he may struggle a little with length off the tee.
However, for my money it'll dry out a little over the playing days and Straka will be able to take full advantage.
Morikawa's near miss at Bayhill racked up another week where this second tier of elite golfers on the PGA Tour have failed to notch a victory.
Henley may be part of that elite group now also but Morikawa, Thomas and Cantlay continue on their barren run and any of them can win unbacked at this rate for my money. One in form golfer and a former winner of this back in 2016 I am happy to include is Jason Day.
Day continued his renaissance being in the penultimate group on Sunday at Bayhill and with improvement certainly still in the locker with his long game he looks a solid each way bet at 50/1 and bigger. The Australian putted very well on the slick greens last week and if anything didn't quite hit the heights he has been recently with his approach play.
That suggests there is room for a better week in that department and where better to complete a comeback and nearly a two year winless stretch with a victory at Sawgrass.
With three other top tens as well as his victory here he has nowhere near as volatile a record as many around here and around that price bracket he looks one of the more reliable options.
Tommy Fleetwood holds obvious claims here and he has the perfect mix of both form and experience around here to trouble the favourites.
Last week was another plodding effort though and despite me believing he is a real threat this week, I can't be excited by the odds on offer and should he win I don't think I'd be bereft and being left out of the celebration parties.
The reward just isn't big enough. One who has a much more tempting risk/reward ratio is Will Zalatoris and I'm happy to risk at anything of 60/1 or above.
Zalatoris as we know is a big game player who can often rise to the biggest occasions. Back in 2022 he lay 8th heading into the final round before shooting a 74 to finish 26th so he has that crucial element of having experienced the heat in the final handful of groups here. Lately he can count himseld a little unlucky not to have posted better results.
Last week he ranked 6th off the tee and 3rd on approach only to see it all undone on and around the greens. His long game was in great nick at the Genesis at Torrey also but again the putter was the issue. It was a similar story in the Californian desert when he 12th at the AMEX having putted poorly.
He will need to turn that around here this week but he's capable and unlike Fleetwood the bigger reward is there.
Sticking to some in form players is the way forward here I believe and I'll include Aaron Rai for that reason.
Rai set up home here in Jacksonville a few years ago and has played plenty of golf at Sawgrass. The Englishman's game has soared in the last 18 months culminating in a victory at the Wyndham last August.
Truth be told he can struggle a little on some of the longer courses, as was evident with a missed cut at Torrey in January but for that same reason Vidanta Vallarta wasn't meant to suit either and he managed a top 5 there. He ranked 2nd in strokes gained approach that week and has followed that up with another good effort ranking 12th with the irons last week at Bayhill.
His putter was slightly cold and he'll need it to perform a little better if he is to contend over the weekend here.
Nevertheless he has all the credentials for Sawgrass, a top 20 already bagged here and one of the in form golfers in the field. The favourites don't hold much appeal this week and I'd much rather play guys like Rai who ought to give us some kind of run.
This year Nick Taylor has established himself as one of the best iron players on tour and that continued at Bayhill Last week where he ranked 7th on approach. His last 5 performances on approach read 7th, 3rd, 36th, 7th and 5th.
It's an incredible run of figures and given how accurate he is with the driver this should present his best chance of ever contending at Sawgrass.
He lay 2nd at halfway last year and he really should be able to put his best foot forward given the form he is with his irons. We have evidence of him overcoming the likes of Scottie Scheffler before when he won in Phoenix last year so it's another box ticked in a long list of positives for his chances here this week.
I'm surprised he is this big a price and I wouldn't put anyone off having bets on other derivatives such as top 20 and top 40.
