All five of Niall Lyons' remaining selections for the Valspar Championship were advised at 100/1 odds or bigger.
Valspar Championship
We head to the Copperhead Course in Innisbrook Palm Harbour, Florida, for the 2025 Valspar Championship. As ever in Florida the weather needs some attention and if there's much wind in the forecast we could see those specialists dominating the leaderboard.
This week there looks to be a huge draw bias with those teeing it up early/late having a significant advantage with the wind forecast.
Over the six five renewals here we have only had four winners with Sam Burns and Paul Casey both winning back to back, then Taylor Moore taking the spoils before Peter Malnati last year.
KJ Choi and Retief Goosen are another two since 2000 who have won on multiple occasions here which means eight renewals have been shared between just four players. Therefore, we must pay close attention to previous winners as well as those with course form who haven't managed a victory here.
We have a long list of champions here who fit the 'plodding' type with Casey, Hadwin, Senden, Streelman, Donald, Furyk and Choi all winning here. Very few of the winners can be labelled as bombers off the tee and this adds up with the course having many dog legs and lay ups off the tee.
It certainly requires a good deal more strategy than most courses on the circuit and it's no surprise we've had three US Open winners who have lifted this trophy at Copperhead. Neither driving accuracy or distance is favoured here, instead look to those who make their gains from tee to green, by not necessarily driving the ball far.
As you can see by the tables below the top 5 here down the years have been dominated by those who have made their gains from tee to green, and those who have previously made those gains at the likes of Colonial or Sedgefield will be of particular interest.
Valspar Championship Winners
- 2024 - P.Malnati (-12)
- 2023 - T.Moore (-10)
- 2022 - S.Burns (-17)
- 2021 - S.Burns (-17)
- 2019 - P.Casey (-8)
- 2018 - P.Casey (-10)
Valspar Championship Tips
- 1pt each-way B.Horschel 100/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescorebet, BetMGM
- 1pt each-way A.Hadwin 110/1 (1/5 8) bet365 8 place market
- 0.75pt each-way M.Schmid 160/1 (1/5 8) bet365 8 place market
- 0.75pt each-way C.Hoffman 150/1 (1/5 8) William Hill, 888Sport
- 0.75pt each-way V.Perez 200/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power
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Billy Horschel @ 100/1 (Six Places)
Thomas Detry hasn't quite hit the heights since his victory at Scottsdale but a second round of four under par last week when missing the cut may be the catalyst to some better form. Maybe there's not quite enough evidence to suggest he is back as that round was largely compiled with a hot putter so it may be best to leave him until another day.
What a chance this is for Tommy Fleetwood who is fighting for the favourite tag this week. The wind will be perfect for him, as is the course so if he's given the right side of the draw this will be the best chance he has had to date to land a victory stateside.
Matt Wallace still has a long way to go if he has designs on playing this year's Ryder Cup match ad performances in events such as these will go a long way. He's not going quite well enough to make the staking plan but 7th and 17th here the last couple of years suggests this may be a venue on which he stage a resurgence.
Billy Horschel hasn't been hitting the ball as good as I'd like lately but I can't resist having a pop at general prices of 80/1 or above. Last year's Open runner up and BMW PGA Champion has struggled somewhat since that purple patch with a top 10 at Pebble Beach being his best result since.
The encouraging aspect about his 42nd placed finish last week was that he hit the ball well off the tee. Poor numbers on approach can always happen around Sawgrass and it's one result of the year that I don't put much of a negative spin on should the result not be as good as expected.
Horschel finished 12th here last year, his best result at Copperhead to date and experience could be the key to a good week with tough conditions over the first couple of days.
1pt each-way B.Horschel 100/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescorebet, BetMGM
Adam Hadwin @ 110/1 (Eight Places)
Another outsider I am adding to the list this week in Florida is Adam Hadwin. The Canadian opened with a three under par round at Sawgrass last week only be undone by a poor second round where next to nothing performed.
Truth be told Hadwin is a creature of habit and is best watched at venues on which he has performed well on before. He was a winner here back in 2017 and has backed that up since with 12th, 7th and 5th placed finishes.
Again this is very much me taking a chance as the tee times could cause havoc and I'd rather chance a few at bigger prices than get involved at the front end of the market. Hadwin is one of the livelier ones should he get the best draw and the reward is there at a lovely price.
Matt Schmid @ 160/1 (Eight Places)
Conditions could also suit Adam Scott although he will need to bounce back from a poor week with the irons. One I'm prepared to risk at bigger odds is Matt Schmid. The German has shown plenty on this tour with six top 5 finishes over the last couple of years.
Recently he has been good also finishing 18th at PGA National with a solid ball striking effort that week then he followed that with a 6th placed finish in Puerto Rico. He may have missed the cut last week but he rallied with a second round of four under par where hr ranked 15th off the tee and 10th on approach for those 18 holes.
That bodes well for someone with a good profile for this type of test at Copperhead and with the forecast set to play havoc over the first couple of days I definitely want to have a few outsiders in my staking plan.
0.75pt each-way M.Schmid 160/1 (1/5 8) bet365 8 place market
Charley Hoffman @ 150/1 (Eight Places)
Charley Hoffman is one who could benefit from the tough conditions as a plodding type course with difficult conditions could play into his hands with the experience he has. Hoffman has been threatening on tour for a number of months now with a really good putting week mainly being the missing piece of the jigsaw.
That was the case again last week where he ranked 31st off the tee, 39th on approach but fell off the cliff edge with his short game once again. The Hoff has a handful of top 20 finishes here at Copperhead and this certainly looks like a week where experience could be key.
0.75pt each-way C.Hoffman 150/1 (1/5 8) William Hill, 888Sport
Victor Perez @ 200/1 (Eight Places)
My final stab in a week full of outsiders making my staking plan is risking Victor Perez. The Frenchman has hit the ball reasonably well on occasions this year to date with little reward. His form in particular with the driver is encouraging and although this isn't a very heavy driver golf course I'm hopeful he can put in position to give himself the best chance on approach.
Last time out at the Cognizant he ranked 7th with the irons and it's on a suitable golf course such as that where he can shine here. Copperhead may not be the first that comes to mind for Perez, but having lived in Scotland and won the Dunhill Links he will have all the skills to score well should he be given a favourable draw.
