Niall Lyons provides his selections for this week's Houston open.
Houston Open
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas. This golf course is difficult to pigeon hole with various types of games winning here since it took up hosting duties five years ago.
Dustin Johnson was the second longest driver in the field when finishing runner up back in 2020, whilst the last four winners have all ranked inside the top 20 in that statistic.
Finau hit the most fairways in the field when he won back in 2022 but looking at the other contenders and winners that year and the other years it certainly doesn't seem to matter all that much whether you're accurate from the tee or not.
Driving distance features heavily on recent leaderboards here. The club that has mattered the most over the last number of renewals has been the putter.
3rd, 2nd, 3rd and 5th have been the rankings of the four winners here on the greens and it looks impossible to compete here unless you're one of the top 20 performers with the flat stick on the week.
As ever that club is difficult to predict but concentrating on the bigger hitters who can scramble well looks the way forward.
Below is a look at the stats of the last four editions of this tournament.
Houston Open Tips
- 5pts WIN R.McIlroy 15/2 (Bet365)
- 2pts each-way Min Woo Lee 45/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet MGM, Livescore
- 1pt each-way K.Yu 75/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Paddy Power
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Rory McIlroy at 15/2 (WIN)
It remains to be seen whether Scottie Scheffler can throw his hat into the ring before the Masters and land a victory. It's now five winless events in a row which is par for the course for many, but not really Scheffler.
He has managed only one top 5 finish in that period so for me he hasn't drifted to a big enough number. He looks frustrated and doesn't cut the demeanor of a man who is about to win a third Masters in four years.
It will all play out in a few weeks but for my money he is a lay right now at the prices. McIlroy is clearly playing the better golf and I'd argue there shouldn't be that much of a price difference between them.
Personally I'm frustrated on missing out on McIlroy both at Pebble and Sawgrass. At Pebble he drifted to as big as 16/1 and Sawgrass wasn't far off that either. Instead I went in at the Arnold Palmer where it didn't quite happen.
McIlroy is currently 7/1 biggest price for the Masters in a few weeks time. That field includes Aberg, Morikawa, Rahm, Dechambeau, Schauffele, Thomas, Niemann, Hovland and Cantlay among many, many others. Aaron Rai, the 3rd favourite here this week is currently trading close to 200/1 for the Masters.
The gulf in class here between the top two and the rest is immense and it's a huge opportunity for either to land a victory.
McIlroy looks best equipped despite this being his debut at memorial Park. Any events that McIlroy would have played in recent years leading into the Masters he'd have been tinkering with his game in order to try get the most out of it come April.
This time around there won't be anywhere near as much playing around and I'd expect him to see a victory here as a big part of the jigsaw to him winning at Augusta in a few weeks time.
I simply can't turn the price down given the quality in behind the favourites and there's no way in the world I believe Scheffler should be half Rory's price, despite a couple of runner up finishes here.
Min Woo Lee at 45/1 (Six Places)
Next up is someone who I believe is on the verge of a PGA Tour victory and Memorial Park should be a good fit for Min Woo Lee.
Bayhill and Sawgrass have possibly been a shade too difficult for the Aussie off the tee recently but with the chance to open his shoulders with the driver here he should have plenty going for him.
A return similar to the output he gained on approach at Sawgrass would do here and we know how special he can be on and around the greens.
Only for the two market leaders turning up here this week Min Woo could and arguably would have been amongst the favourites and a trip to Texas where the wind often blows looks the perfect chance for him.
He has been threatening in the early throws of 2025 and it'd be no surprise should he take advantage of Memorial Park with the course absolutely ideal for his game.
2pts each-way Min Woo Lee 45/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet MGM, Livescore
Kevin Yu at 75/1 (Eight Places)
Eric Cole was on the shortlist at a big price but my final selection of the week is Kevin Yu whose ball striking should be a really big advantage around Memorial Park.
The long game is where Yu makes his scores and it was no different last week at Copperhead where he ranked 1st off the tee and 34th on approach.
Whilst ranking 10th in driving distance last week he hit the second most fairways in the field and should he follow that up with similar in Houston he will have nice chances to score. He missed the cut at the Players where his short game suffered and if there is anything that will hold him back this week it'll more than likely be in that department.
He has already won on a really long golf course when he edged out Beau Hossler at Jackson CC last October and with form coming into a similar yardage he looks a nice bet at anything of 60/1 or above.
