Niall Lyons was over 100 points up from last week's selections, he is back with five more at this week's Valero Texas Open.
Valero Texas Open
We head to Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, Texas this week. This Greg Norman designed track has proven reasonably tough down the years with regular mid teen scores under par winning, but with no wind Corey Conners blitzed the course with a 20 under par total back in 2019.
Similar played out last year when Akshay Bhatia looked to have the event sewn up early before needing to fight out a playoff with Denny McCarthy. Wind as always plays a huge part in Texas and will determine scoring here to a fair degree.
Studying the tables below nothing in particular stands out to easily narrow down the list of potential winners. Of the 23 who have made the top 5 and ties over the past four editions only five have ranked inside the top 10 in driving distance.
Similarly driving accuracy doesn't feature an awful lot in the contenders statistics either. Instead look to tee to green performers who make most of their gains through their approach play. Conners and Spieth, three of the last five winners certainly fit into that category and if you take the 2024, 2023 and 2021 results only four of the 16 who featured in the top 5 ranked outside the top 8 in approach play for the week.
It certainly pays to look at the ball strikers here and if you can hit the ball far off the tee in that scenario then you have a solid foundation on which to score here.
Below is a look at the top performers from the last four years.
Valero Texas Open Winners
- 2024 - A.Bhatia (-20)
- 2023 - C.Conners (-15)
- 2022 - JJ Spaun (-13)
- 2021 - J.Spieth (-18)
- 2019 - C.Conners (-20)
- 2018 - A.Landry (-17)
Valero Texas Open Tips
- 2pts each-way T.Kim 40/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill, Paddypower
- 1.75pts each-way D.Berger 33/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way C.Kirk 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 0.75pt each-way S.Valimaki 125/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way M.Manassero 300/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
William Hill
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Tom Kim @ 40/1 (Eight Places)
Wind gusts currently look like they'll play their part this week and may have an impact on scoring and although firm conditions here often play out some rain on Friday and Saturday may make the course that bit more playable.
Despite a missed cut on debut last year I'm keen to get on board with Tom Kim this week around the 40/1 mark or bigger. It's easy to forget Kim has broken records and at just 22 years old has hoovered up three PGA Tour titles.
His iron game wasn't in good nick on the lead in to this tournament last year and you won't get away with that around this Oaks course. His approach play this time around is sparkling gaining on the field in that department in every tournament since the Open Championship last Summer.
He ranked 20th with his irons at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago whilst at Sawgrass prior he topped the field on approach play. The missing piece has been the putter and the slower greens here should aid that club.
Already a runner up in the Open Championship in windy conditions theoretically this test should really suit and I expect a much better effort than his 2024 outing here.
Daniel Berger @ 33/1 (Eight Places)
Ludvig Aberg could easily come up with the goods here and it's difficult to turn the price seeing he isn't a whole pile bigger next week for the Masters.
However, with a lot of wedges here, that isn't where he makes his gains and in fact he loses shots from the field in approaches from less than 100 yards.
Plenty of approaches come from slightly longer here, but ultimately it is wedge play that is important here on approach and he doesn't quite stand out from the field in that department, especially the last few weeks. Hideki Matsuyama appeals because of that thinking however he is another to have a couple of average weeks with the irons.
I prefer to have someone slightly hotter in that department and I'll partake in more torture by selecting Daniel Berger. Berger really ought to have won the RSM for us last Winter but it wasn't to be with some short putts missed at crucial times.
That will probably be an issue to worry about should he be in contention on Sunday again but he has performed really well with that club since. Two missed cuts here are a long time ago but he really should be suited by the conditions and with his irons ticking along very nicely, especially his wedges, he should put his best foot forward here.
Chris Kirk @ 80/1 (Eight Places)
Chris Kirk has spent a long time in the doldrums with the putter meaning any good play with the long game was being cancelled out. It's a tough gig when it goes like that but finally there was light at the end of the tunnel when he putted really well at Sawgrass and if there's a continuation of that form with the putter then he must have a solid chance here.
The Oaks course has been kind to him and although he hasn't managed a victory he has four top tens here including three in his last five tries. His wedge game is excellent and there is no reason to believe another top 10 effort here is well within his reach. If there is to be a better outcome it will all depend on what happens on the greens and that's the gamble.
Sami Valimaki @ 125/1 (Eight Places)
Joel Dahmen is another who has played well with his irons this season and could figure at triple figure prices. He likes firmer conditions and has won in the wind before in Puntacana but form figures here of CUT-75-69-74-CUT is just about enough to exclude him.
If any triple figure prices are about for Sami Valimaki I'd be willing to take them and although we may feel a week late to the Finn's party it is difficult to write him off here.
Valimaki entered last week off the back of some impressive numbers with his approach play ranking 18th at Sawgrass and 13th at Copperhead with his irons.
The purple patch in approach play continued last week when he topped the field in Houston. Iron play is even more important this week and any increase in the wind will suit him with wins in Qatar and Oman already banked. He has plenty of experience on the Poa greens and can't be ruled out carrying a lot of momentum into this event.
Matteo Manassero @ 300/1 (Eight Places)
Tom Hoge has the wedge game to get involved here but lacking in the scrambling department and maybe a bit off the tee recently is worrying around this venue. Matteo Manassero looks an ok option at the prices and I'll finish with him this week.
The Italian has made four from six cuts since gaining his pga tour card and there's enough to be pleased about. A missed cut last time out at Copperhead was on the number and his excellent approach play and work around the greens were not what held him back there.
The Oaks course should suit more this week and he should be able to show off a really tidy short game along with fine wedges. A lack of distance off the tee will mean his approaches come in from slightly longer yardages but inside 160 yards or so he goes well and he should be able to show off his talents here better than most courses on tour.
He has fought back from the depths of golfing despair and if there is one fairytale to happen this week and for a non qualifier to gain entry into the Masters then Manassero would be top of the list.
