After a 40/1 winner last week, Niall Lyons has five selections for this week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson tournament at TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
This event is held at TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas. The Byron Nelson has a long history and recently has hopped between venues but for the fifth year running we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas.
Craig Ranch is one of the easiest tracks the pros will play all year and Korean KH Lee has won two renewals here at 25 and 26 under par. Fellow Korean Sung Kang won the event at Trinity Forest back in 2019 and it's worth noting that only five Americans have won this event in the last sixteen stagings.
That is probably due to the wind that often materialises in Texas with Internationals having a shade more experience growing up in those conditions.
Scott, Day and Bowditch have also won this event with Australians being well versed in playing in the wind.
Ball striking is key around here, especially approach play. Five of the top 5 and ties in 2022 ranked inside the top ten in approach play for the week whilst the exact same played out in 2021.
The last two years approach play didn't feature so heavily but it's worth noting the 2023 winner Jason Day ranked 3rd with his irons for the week whilst the runner up last year Kohles ranked 7th in that department.
Driving distance doesn't matter all too much but certainly trumps accuracy. It's a place where birdies are needed on almost every other hole so birdie or better percentages are also worth a glance.
Below is a look at the stats from the top finishers in this event in the last four years.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Tips
- 3pts WIN J.Spieth 18/1 General
- 2pts each-way D.Riley 125/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet MGM
- 1pt each-way R.Gerard 66/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet MGM
- 1pt each-way A.Eckroat 66/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill
- 0.75pt each-way M.Schmid 140/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
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Jordan Speith at 18/1 (WIN)
Just how important Justin Thomas' victory could be for his peers in the same category remains to be seen but it wouldn't surprise me should the likes of Spieth and Cantlay kick on a little following Thomas' breakthrough.
All three had been winless for a long accumulative time and the one who could benefit the most is his good friend Jordan Spieth.
Spieth hasn't been a million miles off lately but I suspect he'll get a gentle kick in the behind from his absent friend this week to go out and do the same. He didn't do much wrong at Harbour Town last time out and prior to that a poor week with the irons at Augusta still resulted in a top 15 finish.
12th in Texas the week before that and now back in his hometown state he should really be raring to go. He has a big obstacle in the way with Scheffler but his long game just isn't hitting the same heights as what it was this time last year.
Spieth is most dangerous when he finds form with the putter and he has done exactly that over his last four events. This represents a big chance for at the very least a high finish and with plenty of heartwarming storylines on tour over the last few months a Spieth win would be one of the sweetest.
Davis Riley at 125/1 (Six Places)
Triple figure prices are already being mopped up on Davis Riley but anything even down to and including 80/1 can be considered generous.
Now a two time PGA Tour winner it's a bonus that his last victory came at Colonial Country Club in this very state just last year. From then on until March this year Riley endured a torrid time with his long game with it only returning to some sort of form at the Puerto Rico last month.
6th there was followed by a top 40 at Sawgrass then 7th at the Valspar. 21st at the Masters was compiled by being the 5th best iron player of the week. Now he arrives back at Craig Ranch, a venue on which he finished 9th on his debut season back in 2022.
Last year he finished 30th but it's worth noting he shot the second lowest score of the day in round 1. Riley has more than enough to compete around here and the fact that what you do off the tee here is of little impact to your result should help as that remains the one part of his game that hasn't quite returned to its best.
His iron play has stood out significantly in the last few months and I'm generally as excited as I could possibly be about backing a triple figure poke.
Ryan Gerard at 66/1 (Six Places)
Ryan Gerard's second attempt on the PGA Tour is going a lot smoother than his first and having gone really well in back to back Texas events a few weeks ago I'm backing hm to continue that streak.
It's not s surprise he goes well in the windy state given he's based in Florida and the 25 year old looks like he's ready to win on the PGA Tour.
Weakened fields may be his best chance so the addition of Scheffler is a big worry. Bar the favourite though this field is wide open and Gerad won't be afraid of many of the names that come after the world number one.
His runner up finish in San Antonio behind Brian Harman can be considered a little unlucky as he putted the lights out that week and it was the first time this year that his long game somewhat deserted him.
His irons had been sparkling all season until that week and had he performed to his average in that department he'd already be a winner.
His ball striking for the most part has been superb and having found the midas touch with the putter he has to be dangerous back on a course where he can open up the shoulders off the tee.
Austin Eckroat at 66/1 (Eight Places)
After he won in Mexico in November Austin Eckroat was all the rage and many were touting him as a future Major contender.
Those predictions could well come to fruition but there's no doubt it has been a disappointing 2025 campaign to date. Seven missed cuts in 2025 for Eckroat means it has been a real struggle but it's worth noting that he was 14th and 16th with the irons over the final two days of the Heritage and his 67-68 weekend there is a huge positive.
He is another well suited to these conditions and should he carry on from where he left off at Harbour Town he is an exciting enough proposition at the odds.
Matti Schmid at 140/1 (Eight Places)
My fifth and final selection of the week is Matti Schmid. The 2021 Open Championship silver medal winner is probably best suited to these conditions and with his iron play in really good nick over the last couple of months could score well around here.
A couple of missed cuts in two appearances here tempers enthusiasm a little but he was last seen finishing 9th at a windy PuntaCana just a few weeks ago. Texas may provide a good opportunity for him and it's worth noting that his iron play held up pretty well even when missing the cut at Sawgrass and the two Texas events last month.
Any upturn with the short game could see him perform well once again with his last two pga tour top tens coming in windy conditions.
0.75pt each-way M.Schmid 140/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
