PGA Championship

Rory McIlroy holds all the aces here (he's 40/1 to make the cut for new Paddy Power customers) at Quail Hollow and he has a huge chance to create something special which would result in an absolute frenzy of epic proportions in terms of a potential yearly Grand Slam ending in Portrush in July.

Just imagine. If anyone in the game is likely to create something as special as what Tiger Woods did, it's Rory McIlroy, so it can not be ruled out.

I'm not as keen on his chances here than what I was at the Masters though given his schedule since. He has had plenty to do since that memorable win a month ago and his comments last week about being rusty having played little golf is a little worrying.

The Zurich can't exactly be classed as a good tune up either. Scheffler looks to be in a much butter place and despite the course history here between the two I'd make the world number one clear favourite.

He looks to be hitting his stride at the right time and you couldn't rule out a duel between the two. 

What really stands out here from the stats tables below is that approach play is hugely important around Quail Hollow.

The worst ranking in approach play for the last four winners here has been 12th whilst Thomas ranked 16th in the same statistic when winning the PGA back in 2017.

Those same renewals have seen only six players of the 29 in the top 5 and ties rank outside the top 20 in the week for greens in regulation.

At over 7600 yards the par 71 layout is both long and remains one of the more difficult course they play on the schedule. Rain is forecast on Monday and maybe more on Saturday also so it remains to be seen how firm the fairways are which is crucial as to how accurate you need to be around here.

The greens have a sub air system which allows the hosts to firm them up to their desired speed. Due to the standard firm greens around Quail Hollow approach play becomes difficult and you'll need to earn your chances this week.

Long approach shots makes it difficult to find the pins and if your irons aren't firing then you're going to need to scramble like a champion.

Overall, really good drivers of the golf ball need only apply here and after that it'll be the best with their approach play who will be tough to beat. 

Below is a look at the stats of the last four renewals of the Wells Fargo Championship which has been played at Quail Hollow.

 

PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips

 

Bryson Dechambeau at 11/1 (WIN)

The two at the top of the market set a clear standard and if either play to their best they will be tough to beat. One who could compete though and looks the obvious threat is Bryson Dechambeau and I'm happy to give him a rattle at 10/1 or bigger.

Dechambeau has been an expert at these long and tough US layouts for a few years now and his recent form certainly rivals the two at the top.

Bryson's first Major victory came at a monster Winged Foot layout and numerous solid efforts have followed. 4th at Oak Hill and runner up at Valhalla both arrived before his victory at Pinehurst and if ever there was a sign of how versatile a golfer he is that US Open win last year was it.

5th and 6th at the last two Masters and we clearly have someone here who is in the mould of Brooks Koepka and able to compete and win at multiple Major layouts.

Bryson could easily surpass Koepka's total and it's on these types of courses where he will win if he is to do so. Korea may not be the perfect preparation for this event, but his effort there was certainly eye catching.

11 shots clear of the likes of Rahm certainly gives him a big edge over those guys and that reflects in the prices. These Major Championships are throwing up fewer and fewer surprises as the years pass by and those at the top of the market have a stranglehold on them.

With the course set up it looks ideal for games best to dominate once again and at more than double the price of the two jollies I look to Dechambeau as the better value option.

4pts WIN B.Dechambeau  11/1 AK Bets

Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (WIN)

Xander Schauffele went off 29.0 on the exchanges for the Masters a month ago and as I write he is currently 2pts shorter.

There were a fair amount of question marks surrounding Schauffele at the Masters given how light his schedule had been to then following an injury at the start of the year.

A solid effort all round in all departments of the game saw him finish 8th at Augusta and in turn that was his 12th top 20 finish on the trot in Majors. He is remarkably consistent in the games toughest test and there's nothing to suggest that is going to change here this week.

18th at Harbour Town was another fair effort on a course that doesn't exactly suit and there more positives at Wissahickon last week.

11th there was a fine effort and looks perfect preparation for this weeks tilt at retaining his trophy. If anything his driver hasn't been performing as it was this time last year but ranking 12th and 1st off the tee last Saturday and Sunday is a sign that things are coming together with that club.

He continues to putt well and if there were question marks before Augusta he has more than answered them since and I'm surprised his priced hasn't evaporated a little more after these last few weeks. 

3pts WIN X.Schauffele  22/1  AK Bets

Viktor Hovland at 50/1 (Seven Places)

When it comes to Major punting it is often good advice to back the elite golfers who tend to drift to backable numbers.

They have a tendency to show up on the biggest stage in spite of recent form. One who I can't quite understand is as big is Viktor Hovland and he's the third man on the staking plan this week.

Hovland has been on somewhat of a rollercoaster this year but what is clear is that he can't be too far away from his best. It was only six weeks ago he came and pipped Justin Thomas at Copperhead for his first victory in around 18 months.

Since then he finished a very respectable 21st at the Masters whilst 13th at Harbour Town can be considered a success also given it's not a very driver heavy golf course.

A new course and some bad weather around last week at Wissahickon means I won't be putting too much emphasis on that result but despite finishing 54th he ranked 14th in approach play with his short game letting him down.

That can be the issue with Hovland but for the most part in Major Championships he performs well in that category. PGA set ups look perfect for him as evident by his last two efforts finishing 3rd at Valhalla and 2nd at Oak Hill.

His last eight rounds at the PGA read 68-66-66-66-68-67-70-68. A nine time PGA Tour winner since the year 2020 is sitting at 45/1+ for this years PGA and for me it's the bet of the week at the prices. 

2.5pts each-way V.Hovland  50/1  (1/5 7) Unibet, Spreadex, BetMGM, Livescorebet

Ludvig Aberg at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Max Homa had his best driving week in a long time last week at the Truist Championship and with a solid Masters finish last month could kick on.

He is finding something, whether it's enough to invest in him this week is another question though. Similar to Hovland, I wasn't quite expecting to see 25/1 about Ludvig Aberg this week and at that price in a US Major it is difficult to turn down.

The negatives are that he hasn't been hitting the ball as well over the last few months than what he was most of last year.

He bounced back from illness at Pebble Beach to win the Genesis at Torrey Pines and that's an example of what he can produce. He definitely hasn't been near his best even with that victory but that didn't stop him posting 7th at the Masters, to go with his runner up finish the previous year.

12th at Pinehurst has been his only other decent showing at a Major outside of Augusta. He surprisingly missed the cut at last years PGA but that was following a month off and this time around he is much more match fit.

That being said his irons were way off it last week at Wissahockin and he'll need to improve in that department. 3rd off the tee last week is a big positive though and he should relish this trip to Quail Hollow.

The best drivers should dominate here and he is certainly one of them. I didn't expect to be backing Aberg this week given his numbers of late, but I just can't turn down the 25/1 available given he was a fair bit shorter than that for the Masters where he finished 7th.

2pts each-way L.Aberg  25/1  (1/5 8) Skybet

Sam Stevens at 350/1 (Eight Places)

Davis Thompson is a name you'd expect to figure on Major leaderboards in years to come and he was on my radar before the last couple of weeks where his approach play hasn't been anywhere near his best.

Should he find form again with irons he could be a contender at triple figure odds. David Puig is another interesting one. He is the same price as Brooks Koepka for LIV DC coming up yet we see Brooks at 65.0 on the exchange this week with Puig at 400+.

Obviously Koepka is a different animal in Majors but it is interesting nonetheless. Puig has yet to gain a victory on any main tour date though and is probably best left for side markets.

Neergaard Petersen is another well ahead of the handicapper but winless once again is enough to put me off selecting him in the outright betting.

Sam Burns failed to deliver with his long game once again last week but should he ever find form in that department he is going to be a major factor with his killer putting numbers. 

One I'm happy to play at big odds is Sam Stevens who despite being a maiden on the PGA Tour has numerous close calls with the latest being 3rd place at the Byron Nelson just a couple of weeks ago.

He was a long way off the runaway winner but nevertheless can consider himself a little unlucky not to be in with a chance of a win that Sunday.

Torrey Pines is an interesting course when looking at this weeks event given it is very long and demands a similar game to Quail Hollow.

Stevens went really close there and really ought to have won bar one bad shot that saw the water on the 72nd hole.

His performance that Sunday was hugely impressive up until that point and it's for that reason I think he can cope reasonably well with the pressure despite not having won on tour yet.

His long game would need to improve slightly on what we've seen since Torrey but he is a talented sort at a big price who can outplay those odds this week. 

0.75pt each-way S.Stevens  350/1  (1/5 8) Skybet