The Canadian Open

This week's event, The Canadian Open, moves venue this year to the TPC Toronto North Course at Osprey Valley.

A brand new course on the PGA Tour always poses somewhat of a conundrum for punters and with only the Americas PGA Tour having visited here before we have no clues as to how it will play.

There are some useful course videos online to watch and I think we can conclude that the course is fairly generous off the tee which means the longer hitters can really throw caution to the wind with woods and trees being the main obstacles to avoid if spraying one wide.

The course only has two par 5s which bookend the eighteen holes with two long and two short par 3s. 

Rory McIlroy is back this week having opted out of the Memorial and despite all of us not needing to hear what he has to say after every 18 holes, it will be interesting to hear his press conference before the event to find out what he has to say about the PGA Championship driver debacle, and of course skipping the Jack Nicklaus love in at Ohio. 

Candian Open Tips

 

 

Ludvig Aberg at 14/1 (WIN)

It was only six weeks ago that Ludvig Aberg really ought to have competed in a playoff to win the Masters alongside McIlroy and Rose but following a nightmare final 20 minutes or so he had to settled for 7th at only his second bite of the cherry around Augusta.

He lined up that week at the same price he is this week, and often shorter in places. 12/1 and 14/1 is all you will get for him to win next years Masters also.

So why do we see 14/1 this week without Scheffler, Rahm, Dechambeau, Morikawa and co? Well, he certainly hasn't hit the ball up to his very high standard since that Masters week and maybe his finish there really hurt him.

54th at the Heritage, 60th at the Truist then a missed cut at the PGA have followed. A top 20 landed last week at Muirfield Village and there are plenty of positives to take from that.

A final round of six under par (2nd best off the day only beaten by Snedeker) saw him leap up the field to finish 16th and he ranked 1st from tee to green during that final 18.

14th for the week with the irons represents a fair improvement from the previous few weeks and I'm surprised we now see 14/1, almost three the times the price of McIlroy who hasn't quite looked at the races since his heroic Masters victory.

4pts WIN L.Aberg  14/1 General

Shane Lowry at 22/1 (WIN)

The course looks a great fit for Shane Lowry and although I'm not overly pleased with his price this week I'll have a win only bet on the Irishman to win his first solo event on the PGA Tour since his Bridgestone event in 2015.

His win at Firestone is somewhat relevant too as it looks like a similar test to me in regards to some dog legs and flying tee shots over trees to certain landing areas.

He also has a tremendous record at Wentworth and although this is a lot more generous off the tee it does have that look about it with the tall trees.

Lowry's approach play has been excellent all season and it continued last week at Muirfield where he was inside the top ten heading into the final day before succumbing to a five over par final 18 holes on Sunday to drop him to 23rd.

He finished the week ranking 7th in approach play and with various short holes here I expect his wizardry from inside 100 yards to be a huge asset at this course. As ever we will rely a little on the putter but a victory in this grade is long overdue and he may just repeat Bob MacIntyre's feat from last year.

3pts WIN S.Lowry  22/1 BetVictor

Cameron Young at 70/1 (Eight Places)

For a couple of years Cameron Young's main weakness was his putter. It was like a horror movie at times on the greens and you got the impression it was holding him back in a big way.

This season has been totally different and he has turned it around for the most part. There have been poor weeks with the putter, notably at Augusta and back in California but for large parts of the season now he has performed really well with that club.

The long game hasn't quite been there throughout though but there are reasons to be optimistic heading to Canada this week. Three weeks ago he produced his best performance with the irons in almost a year when finishing 7th at the Truist Championship.

 

That didn't carry until the next week unfortunately at the PGA where he finished 47th, but his game off the tee improved that week. Last week at Muirfield Village he ranked 1st for the week off the tee, with the rest of his game not quite firing.

It appears he isn't too far away and a new track that should reward a really strong driver looks to have come at the perfect time. Listen, it's Cameron Young, we all know he is not to be relied upon, but this looks like a time to have him on our betting slips.

1pt each-way Cam Young  70/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Ryan Fox at 60/1 (Eight Places)

I mentioned the Wentworth look about this course in many parts and for that reason and many more Ryan Fox features in my staking plan.

The Kiwi should relish this course that he can really attack from the tee and better efforts these last few weeks with the putter would have seen him with much better results.

The putter can blow hot and cold for Fox and we've just got to hope for the best in that department. Just three weeks on from his maiden PGA Tour victory at Myrtle Beach Fox has continued his excellent iron play both at the PGA then last week in Ohio where he ranked 4th in the field in that department.

This parkland layout should play to his strengths and he'll be able bash the ball near a couple of reachable par 4s depending on the tees they use, and of course the 1st and the 18th, the two par 5s.

Fox is achieving what many thought he would have and despite some struggles since his win in Perth in 2019 he has won at a fair lick since.

If Olesen and Fox teed it up together in a DPWT event I don't think there would be much of a difference between their prices whilst in some places we see Fox double the price of Olesen here. 

1pt each-way R.Fox  60/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Matt Kuchar at 125/1 (Six Places)

It has been a fair while since I've selected Matt Kuchar for an event but here we are and triple figure prices about him this week look generous.

At 46 years old Kuchar struggles largely down to a lack of distance off the tee but that didn't stop him from finishing inside the top 25 last week in Ohio and making nine of his last ten cuts on tour.

He ranked 14th in approach play at Colonial a few weeks ago which was his best performance with the irons in nearly a year. With the length of the course at Muirfield Village you wouldn't expect him to finish very high up the long game numbers, but he was more than respectable.

 

I do expect long driving to be important this week but there are numerous short holes that Kuchar can take advantage of and only two par 5s helps his situation.

There are downhill holes where he can catch the slopes and I'm hoping he can cope somewhat with the distance challenge.

On and around the greens he's performing pretty well this year and this track may just provide him with some chances to score.

1pt each-way M.Kuchar  125/1  (1/5 6) WilliamHill