Canadian Open 1st Round Leader

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, just one week before the U.S. Open.

Hosted for the first time on the newly-renovated North Course, a par-70 layout measuring 7,389 yards, it’s now among the five longest courses played annually on Tour.

The parkland-style track features wide fairways, strategic bunkering, and six par 4s over 480 yards, including five topping 500.

With just two par 5s (reachable in two) and potentially two drivable par 4s, players must be bold but precise with their long irons on most of the holes.

The 3.75" bluegrass rough at TPC Toronto is thick, grabby, and punishing so you'll need to hit these wide fairways (averaging 37 yards wide) and finesse around the greens will be essentual to stay in contention. Other than three water hazards there isn't too much else trouble to find on the course.

Thursday’s forecast calls for a damp start, with scattered showers likely during the early tee times.

The rain is expected to clear by the afternoon, and wind shouldn’t be a major factor throughout the day, steady at 5–10 mph with only occasional gusts up to 15 mph.

 

Canadian Open First Round Leader Tips

Keith Mitchell

Mitchell was on a hot streak before the last two tournaments, with 5 top 20's in a row which featured a T2 at the Corales Puntacana.

He since slowed down with a cut at the PGA Championship and a T36 finish at the Charles Schwab, where his work around the green and a dip in form with his irons let him down.

However, a return to a course that should suit his game perfectly makes him an interesting pick for the first round leader market.

In this field, he ranks:

  • 14th for driver distance in the last 50 rounds
  • 7th for ball striking in the last 30 rounds
  • 2nd for par 4 scoring average in the last 50 rounds
  • 14th for SG tee-to-green in the last 50 rounds.
  • 26th for SG at long courses in the last two years

He has also been solid with his long irons, ranking in the top 60 for approach proximity from 150-200 and 200+ yards.

If this big hitter hits his irons like he has most of the season he should take to TPC Toronto nicely, and he isn't afraid to put up a big score on a Thursday.

He has been first round leader three times in his last eight appearances and ranks first for first round finish average in this field in the last 6 months. 

He also has six top five finishes in the first round in his last 10 appearances.

He does however tee off very early and might get caught in some of the early showers but at 55/1 it is worth chancing that this doesn't effect his game.

Ryan Fox

New Zealand's Ryan Fox recently secured his first ever PGA win at the Myrtle Beach Classic and has followed that up with a 28th finish at the PGA Championship and 20th finish at the Memorial last week.

He is a man playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and with the way he is hitting the ball this could be a great time to back him.

 

In this field he ranks:

  • 25th for driver distance (last 50 rounds)
  • 19th SG tee-to-green (last 50 rounds)
  • 14th ball striking (last 30 rounds)
  • 56th for SG on long courses (2 years)
  • 34th for par 4 scoring (6 months)
  • 20th SG approach (last 50 rounds)
  • 9th approach proximity from 150-200 (6 months)
  • 42nd for approach proximity from 200+ (6 months)

 

He's in fantastic form, playing with confidence, he is a long hitter who's ball striking is in a great place and long irons are also in great form.

He also finished 7th in this tournamnent last year, albeit at a different course.

He currently ranks 14th for first round finish average and is 8th for SG first round in the last six months.

His first round finishes in the last five tournaments read: 35,5,4,28,5.

With a number of positive recent first round finishes, a game that should suit this course and plenty of confidence, Fox is a solid pick at 60/1.

Ricky Castillo

24-year-old Ricky Castillo is a big hitter who has caught my eye this week.

He has only missed four cuts in 15 tournaments this year and has four top 20 finishes inclduing a 5th at the CJ Cup just three starts ago.

He thrives off the tee and the rest of his game shapes up quite nicely for this course.

In this field he ranks:

  • 42nd for driver distance (last 50 rounds)
  • 10th SG tee-to-green (last 50 rounds)
  • 26th ball striking (last 30 rounds)
  • 83rd for SG on long courses (2 years)
  • 5th for par 4 scoring (6 months)
  • 28th SG approach (last 50 rounds)
  • 35th approach proximity from 150-200 yards (6 months)
  • 44th approach proximity from 200+ yards (6 months)

 

The former No 1 ranked amateur is a long hitter off the tee who is striking his irons well and scoring well on par 4's. 

 

He should enjoy this open layout at TPC Toronto and with a weaker than usual field he has a chance of going low enough on Thursday.

He finished in tie for first after round one at the Valspar Championship earlier this season and has two top 20 frl finishes in his last three starts.

He ranks 29th for first round finish average in this field in the last 6 months and 11th for SG Total in round one in the last 6 months.