US Open

The Open 2024 trends threw up Schauffele joint top alongside two others whilst McIlroy (1st Masters) and Dechambeau (2nd PGA) have been the latest two to top each trends piece.

When it comes to the Majors the trends can't be too easily dismissed as more often than not these go to those best equipped and surprises are few and far between.

With the US Open being held on a different course every year it isn't the easiest to profile in terms of trends but there are numerous aspects that seem to come into play every year.

 

To narrow down the field before knocking each player out we will use DataGolf's world ranking system which is much more reliable than the official one during these times.

Nine of the last ten winners have come from inside the top 25 in the world so that's the criteria we will use to start the process of narrowing the field. For any statistics I will shoehorn LIV's numbers into the PGA Tour.

Winners of this event do not come out of the blue and winning form of some kind over the previous 18 months looks imperative. 15 of the last 15 winners had either won that season or the season prior.

Fourteen of the last fifteen US Open Champions had posted both a top 25 at this event and Major top 10 finish. 

In an event where conditions are often extremely tough you'd think experience is key, and it is, however the pendulum swings once you reach your 10th US Open.

 

11 of the last 13 winners have been 31 years old or younger. 12 of the last 13 winners have played in at least 3 US Opens whilst the last 11 winners have played no more than 9 US Opens before winning. 

Hitting greens here is mighty important as the last 15 winners all ranked in the top 18 for GIR hit throughout the week. Anyone not inside the top 18 on the PGA Tour in this stat will be knocked out.

Finally to separate the remainder we will use driving distance. High rough looks to be a large part of the conundrum next week and that usually serves the longer hitters in the field. 8 of the last 9 winners have ranked in the top 20 in Driving Distance for the week.

So we are looking for the golfer which tick each of the following boxes:

  • Victory this season or last (Last 15 of 15)
  • Top 25 at US Open and a Major top 10 (14 of last 15)
  • Aged 31 years or Younger (11 of last 13)
  • Played in at least 3 US Opens (12 of last 13)
  • Top 18 GIR this season
  • Played no more than 9 US Opens (11 of last 11)
  • Top 20 Driving Distance (8 of last 9)

 

Below, we take a look at which players meet these criteria:

Player Wins
This Season
Or Last		 US Open Top 25 +
Major Top 10		 Age ≤31 ≥3 US Opens
Played		 ≤9 US Opens
Played		 Top 18 GIR Top 20 DD
Scottie Scheffler ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌
Rory McIlroy ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Bryson DeChambeau ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌
Jon Rahm ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Justin Thomas ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Tommy Fleetwood ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Collin Morikawa ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Joaquin Niemann ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Xander Schauffele ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌
Sepp Straka ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Corey Conners ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Patrick Cantlay ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Shane Lowry ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Russell Henley ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Ben Griffin ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Keegan Bradley ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Tyrrell Hatton ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Hideki Matsuyama ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Sam Burns ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Si Woo Kim ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Ludvig Åberg ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Jordan Spieth ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Viktor Hovland ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌
Robert MacIntyre ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
Harris English ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

 

We have our winner and it's Jon Rahm! The Spaniard featured heavily in the last Major going toe to toe with Scheffler on the back 9 before a horrendous finish saw him tumble to 8th.

Performances such as that often point towards another in the next Major and Rahm looks well equipped for the task at Oakmount. He finished inside the top 25 at this course on debut when it held the 2016 edition of this Championship.

Modern powerhouses in the game Brooks Koepka and Bryson Dechambeau have both won this twice in recent years and Rahm can follow in their footsteps by winning his second next week.