US Open

Quail Hollow is thankfully behind us and I think we can all welcome a return to a truly great golf course and an even tougher test at Oakmont.

This promises to be a true US Open test and looking back to Cabrera's and Johnson's victories here we could be in for a real treat. Oakmont certainly isn't the longest course on the US Open rota and that should provide a leaderboard of bombers and plodders just like in the previous renewals.

Videos of the rough have been trending on social media for weeks now and although you can normally take them with a pinch of salt it looks like this time around it will be a serious issue for the players.

The fairways are narrow but not the smallest we've seen and where normal US Open weeks where we see bomb and gauge tactics this week should be different in that those who hit a straight ball should be adequately rewarded.

The greens are large here and that means approach play shouldn't feature too heavily in the result but long putts will be the norm and those who can avoid 3 putting will have an advantage.

This looks like it will be won and lost off the tee and putting inside ten feet. Those who can rank high in those two statistics across the week will have a huge chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday evening.

US Open Tips

 

Jon Rahm at 14/1 (WIN)

Next month at Portrush looks a great opportunity for Jon Rahm but equally Oakmont should be perfect for the Spaniard to follow in Koepka's and Dechambeau's spike prints by winning his second US Open in a short space of time.

An East course Major with slightly colder temperatures should play into the hands of some Europeans and it has been a year dominated by this continent on the PGA Tour. Rahm is a spectacular driver of the golf ball and although not quite as long as Dechambeau he should benefit from an extra bit of accuracy than the defending champion.

It certainly looks like it will be a challenge to separate yourself from the field with approach play and instead it'll come down with how you drive the ball and how you cope with the greens. The greens are big and there are several with challenging slopes which should make clutch putting inside 5-10 feet crucial across the week.

The South Course at Torrey Pines is always one that challenges players inside that distance and Rahm has come up trumps there more than once. One victory that looks particularly relevant to this week is his BMW triumph back in 2020.

In winning that he overcame the 2016 Oakmont Champion Dustin Johnson and both the course and the winning score of 4 under par looks very similar to the type of test we'll see here this week. To push Scheffler a long part of the way at Quail Hollow last month was a mighty effort and that performance looks to have breathed fire into this sleeping giant.

He may not be hitting the heights he once was but his PGA run suggests he's not far off getting back there. In a race towards Par or slightly better Rahm can excel as frustrations will show in the entire field and he wont be alone in letting his temper come to the fore this week. 

4pts WIN J.Rahm  14/1 AK Bets

Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (WIN)

Bryson came very close to making my staking plan a very top heavy one but there are a few little niggles that stop me from getting involved with the 2024 Champion.

The main one is his iron play and although I think approach play won't be the most important part of the equation here, I worry about his control with them and either very long putts or flying over greens looks a distinct possibility of being a theme throughout the week for him.

Throw in a little fresher weather and we just might not see the best version of Bryson. Therefore around the 8/1 it is probably best left unbacked.

Morikawa's accuracy off the tee should be rewarded here and could mean him getting another crack at a Major win over the weekend but I prefer one at slightly shorter odds.

Xander Schauffele featured in my PGA preview putting him up around the 20-22/1 mark and although there are genuine concerns that he is nowhere near the level that he was at this time last year I can't help but feel his credentials for a test such as this will go a long way. 8th at the Masters has been followed with finishes of 18-11-28-25 which certainly haven't pulled up any trees, but neither has McIlroy, Aberg and a handful of others around him in the market.

He ranked 3rd off the tee at Quail Hollow and was only undone by a lacklustre display with his irons. His approach play was much better at the Memorial ranking 9th in that department and if he can marry the two then he could be in business.

The concern here is that his accuracy off the tee has nosedived in 2025 and if anything could haunt him around Oakmont it will be that.

However, look to his record in golf's toughest Major Championship and it spells an awful lot. 5-6-3-5-7-14-10-7 is simply a mind boggling run in this Championship and when it gets tough he has consistently proven he is one of the best in the business to cope with it.

There are concerns about how well he is playing for sure but his record at this event is worth the gamble alone, especially considering nobody in this price bracket is particularly firing.

3.5pts WIN X.Schauffele  22/1 Unibet, Ak Bets, BetVictor, Bet MGM, Livescore

Justin Thomas at 35/1 (Eight Places)

Justin Thomas has heroically clawed his way back to the top of the game and a US Open victory would undoubtedly be a career highlight and trump his previous two PGA victories.

Let's deal with the couple of concerns I have with the first being his approach play in recent weeks. He hasn't been anywhere near his best in that department at Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village lately but the larger than normal greens here at Oakmont should play into his hands if his iron play isn't perfect.

He is playing well off the tee although I'd definitely prefer a shade more accuracy lately. One big positive is how well he has putted this year which is a major improvement on 2023 and 2024 and it is no surprise it has already resulted in a victory.

That victory at Harbour Town came a week after the Masters where he went off a general 20/1 shot. The week following his victory he finished runner up at Philly Cricket Club and for the life of me I can't understand why there has been a significant drift in his price since the Masters.

 

Granted there have been slightly lacklustre efforts at the PGA and Memorial but having won and finished 2nd since that Masters outing I don't think you should be getting any price bigger than what he went off for the first Major of 2025.

I don't think this track is a perfect fit for Thomas but I can't help myself from opting for the value here and anything of 25/1 or more is a lovely price.

2pts each-way J.Thomas  35/1 (1/5 8) Betfred, Bet365

Patrick Cantlay at 35/1 (Eight Places)

Patrick Cantlay lacks the experience of a win in the last eighteen months which was one of the more prevalent trends I pointed out last week, however he looks to have solid credentials for this test at Oakmont and he's on my staking plan at 33/1 or bigger.

Cantlay has been somewhat expensive to follow in Majors during his career but since 2023 has become a little more consistent. He missed the cut at the PGA but I'm not overly concerned with that farce of a Major Championship.

Instead look to his two performances either side of that effort finishing 4th at the Truist Championship then 12th at the Memorial. He ranked 12th and 17th on approach those two weeks and that is one department where there is very little concerns with Cantlay.

He blows a little hot and cold on the greens but cast your mind back to Rome and the last Ryder Cup and the clutch putts he holed under intense scrutiny when 'capgate' broke out that afternoon.

Make no mistake, Cantlay is big enough and bold enough to hole crucial putts at the right time and that should prove itself to be a massive part of the equation here.

There are those who are a little straighter off the tee than Cantlay but if he can keep it in play for the most part with the driver this should present a serious opportunity to land his maiden Major Championship.

2pts each-way P.Cantlay  35/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Sepp Straka at 40/1 (Six Places)

Russell Henley will welcome a US Open course that is slightly less demanding length wise than usual and with his form this year has to enter to conversation. Despite that form he has missed the cut in this years first two Majors and that is a slight worry.

Thomas Detry played well last week and he's one at bigger odds that I thought could be an ounce of value. Fleetwood could be ideal for this test also but the reward in the price just isn't there for someone winless in the States.

I much prefer the chances of Sepp Straka. He is another who has missed the last two Major cuts but the length of those two tracks definitely won't have suited him. Oakmont looks to be a venue where Straka's pinpoint accuracy with the driver and hot streak with the putter could be a lethal combination.

That recent victory in nearby Philadelphia at the Truist could be a big pointer as to who could play well this week and Straka will be full of confidence. His recent 3rd placed finish at the Memorial was done so by ranking 1st off the tee which is a huge feather in his cap heading to Oakmont.

The driver and the putter will be the two most important clubs in the bag and he ranked 3rd on the greens that week in Ohio. His form reminds me a little of Molinari before he won the Open and maybe Portrush is a better opportunity for the Austrian it remains to be seen.

However, this is an extreme test of accuracy off the tee and Straka looks well equipped to get into the battle over the weekend. 

1.5pts each-way S.Straka  40/1  (1/5 6) General