Niall Lyons has six selections from this week's BMW PGA Championship in Wentworth, Surrey, England.
BMW PGA Championship
Wentworth, Surrey, England will host this week's BMW PGA Championship.
Ryder Cup years inevitably mean that we get one of the best fields we could possibly assemble at this time with the absence of some American names as the majority of Team USA travel to California.
Two years ago we had the full European Ryder Cup team in appearance and it was a riveting event from start to finish. Kiwi Ryan Fox was the first to complete the jigsaw with Hatton blowing a big chance and Ludvig Aberg also spurning a big opportunity.
There isn't an awful lot of room off the tee here but driving accuracy has been one of the least important statistics in recent years. Last year it was more important than usual so caution is exercised.
Driving distance has come to the fore moreso in the last five years and you can rest assured the contenders will be high up the list in the tee to green statistic.
Horschel and Lowry both topped that stat when winning in 2021 and 2022 whilst Fox ranked 9th. Last year Horschel did most of his work with the putter when winning for a second time.
A strong effort from the tee aligned with a solid approach game will see you score around here. Ball striking is key but I'd certainly favour the longer hitters here at Wentworth nowadays.
BMW PGA Championship Tips
- 4pts WIN T.Fleetwood 11/1 General
- 1.5pts each-way C.Conners 35/1 (1/5 7) Starsports
- 1pt each-way R.Neergaard-Petersen 60/1 (1/5 6) Skybet, Paddypower, PricedUp
- 1pt each-way T.Kibbin 85/1 (1/5 6) Spreadex, SportingIndex
- 0.75pt each-way A.Sullivan 150/1 (1/5 6) Skybet, Paddypower
- 0.5pt each-way E.Smylie 300/1 (1/5 8) Betfred
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Tommy Fleetwood at 11/1 (WIN)
The last seven winners of this fine event had been ploughing their trade on the PGA Tour that season prior to winning here in Surrey.
The market reflects that with PGA Tour members dominating the front quarter of the betting.
I can't quite believe the position Jon Rahm holds. Winless in a year in weaker competitions than this and nowhere near his peak in my opinion he joins McIlroy, the reigning Pebble Beach, Players Championship, Masters and Irish Open winner.
It doesn't quite add up and he looks one certainly to steer clear of at that price, regardless if he wins or not.
We backed Tommy Fleetwood when he won the Tour Championship at 14/1, with plenty of bookmakers only 12/1 also. 11/1 presents itself this week and for my money that is quite fair and I'll go in once again.
Fleetwood feels like he has been the second best golfer in the world for the last few months, and that is backed up by DataGolf placing him as no2 in their world rankings.
His putter has heated to unprecedented levels and whilst his long game has been absolutely sparkling it has been the putter that has made the ultimate difference with this being the best year of his career on the greens.
He has been consistent enough around Wentworth down the years with a few chances slipping by but more often than not it has been the flat stick that has let him down.
With that department well and truly in order now I think it'd be foolish ignore the quality of his game compared to the rest of the field.
He turned up here in 2023 with the full Ryder Cup team in tow and was a general 11/1 for the week.
Turning up at the same price given the improvement in his game and his ability to close suggests this is worth a gamble around double the odds of last week's winner.
Corey Conners at 35/1 (Seven Places)
Corey Conners makes his debut here but there is every reason to think it could be a successful jaunt to the south of England.
Similarities have been drawn to Augusta down the years, a course on which Conners has four top tens. Maybe he's booked for another one here but with plenty of Ryder Cup distraction and I'm sure a few team meetings during the week the likes of Conners could take advantage.
This is a ball strikers golf course and Conners should really be able to manage meandering through the trees in Virgina Water.
Last time out at East Lake Conners finished with rounds of 67-67-62 after an opening 70 eventually finishing 4th but managing to beat the winner Tommy Fleetwood by two shots over the final three rounds.
That bodes well for a trip to Wentworth but the question mark as ever will lie with the putter.
He ranked 7th in the field in that statistic at the Tour Championship and he is another, like Fleetwood, who is enjoying his best season to date on the greens.
It's not a price I'm overly enamoured with but the likes of Horschel has had great traction here down the years and he's in a similar mould.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 60/1 (Six Places)
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen has held a front of stage role in the betting markets in recent weeks and I've been an advocate of steering clear at those prices until we see him in a better field and at a better price as he's capable of winning in the strongest of fields.
The same happened to Wyndham Clark a few years ago, hotly tipped to land a PGA Tour victory and going off short prices in mediocre fields, then he landed the big one at Quail Hollow in a strong field at 66/1.
I believe the same approach should be applied to Rasmus and I'd rather try and land his maiden victory at these types of odds.
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He looks destined for big things and a missed cut on the number last week at a soggy K Club isn't enough to put me off.
His approach play in Crans was eye catching to say the least and his ball striking should really pay off here at Wentworth.
I feel he is certain to come back here in the years to come as a member of Team Europe for the Ryder Cup and it's a good week to lay down his future intentions.
1pt each-way R.Neergaard-Petersen 60/1 (1/5 6) Skybet, Paddypower, PricedUp
Tom McKibbin at 85/1 (Six Places)
Tom McKibbin turned up in Ireland a general 30/1 shot for his home Open and having finished a very respectable 20th there he heads to Wentworth amazingly as big as 100/1 in places.
This is a much stronger field, but I'd have imagined his price would have headed towards 50/1 and not quite as big as it has.
McKibbin was 23rd in approach play last week and 13th on the greens, a combination that should pay even more dividends here at Wentworth.
It was a drivers golf course last week and he didn't quite hit the ball as well off the tee as he'd have hoped but with improvement to be had in that department it makes him an even nicer proposition this time around.
He was 10th last year on his second appearance here and there's nothing much more to be said other than that the price dictates the bet here.
Andy Sullivan at 150/1 (Six Places)
Despite missing the cut last week it's difficult to ignore Andy Sullivan who prior to last week was in the middle of some of his best form for a number of years.
10th on approach play at the British Masters and 13th in the same statistic in Denmark is a sign of how well he is hitting the ball.
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Conditions were tough last week at a rainy K Club that is dominated by the best off the tee and that certainly doesn't suit Sullivan nowadays.
There will be less emphasis on the driver this week at Wentworth and we could see him bounce back to that form which was four top 20s on the trot starting at the Scottish Open in July.
He has made 10 of 12 cuts here down the years with a best finish of 3rd back in 2020. Has to be chanced at the prices.
Elvis Smylie at 300/1 (Eight Places)
I'll have a small flyer on Elvis Smylie who has been playing some decent golf of late. 6th in Denmark has been followed by mid 30s placed finishes at the Belfry and the K Club but there is reason to think he could go a shade better this week.
The Aussie has ranked 10th, 17th and 5th with his irons the last three weeks and there should be less pressure on his game off the tee here given neither length nor accuracy feature predominantly in contenders here.
He won the Australian PGA Championship in November last year beating the likes of Cam Smith, Marc Leishman and Jason Day so this company shouldn't frighten him. He looks a big price for someone playing solid golf lately.
