Niall Lyons has three betting tips for this week's Australian PGA Championship.
Australian PGA Championship
Another fine final third to the DPWT season was completed a few weeks ago in Dubai and we barely have time to draw breath as the 2026 season gets under way down under this week at the Royal Queensland Golf Club. This tour holds all the aces from September onwards and in the final few weeks of the year it is no different.
Min Woo Lee won here two years ago with a total of 20 under par whilst Cam Smith won the year previous at 14 under par. Unfortunately statistics are thin on the ground for this event but it's an event that has been dominated by the homegrown players down the years and with a handful right at the top of the market it would be a brave man to bet against that happening once again.
The fairways are generous whilst the courses main defence are the strategic bunkers placed around the greens and towards landing areas off the tee.
Min Woo Lee - 5pt Win
10/1 best price with BetMGM and Virgin Bet at the time of publishing. As short as 7/1 elsewhere.
The Aussie double header this week and next week has become a staple at this time of year and since 2022 Min Woo Lee's record in these events read 4-4-3-WIN-3-15-27. He heads the market here and rightly so and that's where the bulk of my attention lies this week. Royal Queensland is the perfect setup for Min Woo's swashbuckling game with wide fairways to belt the ball as hard as he can and with tricky bunkering and slopes around the greens he can gain more on the field in those departments than an average week on tour.
The start of his year was ominous with the improvement in his approach play and his win in Texas was on the cards. Memorial Park is the perfect example of a course with little penalty off the tee, that is subject to wind and will test short game from inside 100 yards. Queensland GC is similar in many ways and with the strong record of home players this probably represents Min Woo's best chance of a victory since Houston.
Niemann has landed one top 6 finish in his last six starts and missed the cut last week in the Saudi International. Cameron Smith also missed the cut last week and is showing next to nothing that suggests a victory is around the corner. His strongest challenge could come from Rasmus Neergaard Petersen who valiantly fought back to have a squeak going up the final hole in Dubai and who showed flashes of brilliance all week there at the Earth Course that surely means he won't be a maiden for much longer.
Min Woo Lee can make the home advantage count and as long as the putter stays true across the four days he should be a tough nut to crack here.
Carlos Ortiz - 4pt Win
Best price of 20/1 widely available at the time of publishing.
My second bite towards the top of the market will be Carlos Ortiz. The Mexican has had a really solid couple of years with Asian Tour victories in Macau and Oman as well as a LIV tour victory in Houston. Another six top ten LIV finishes including a runner up in Adelaide when last in Australia in February all added up to being 8th on the LIV order of merit for the season.
Midnite
He threatened for a long way at Oakmont in the Summer and I don't quite believe he has been the credit he deserves by the media and the odds compilers in general. He hits a really long ball and his touch around the greens is excellent. I consider him and Min Woo Lee a really strong twosome to go to war with at Royal Queensland.
David Law - 0.75pts Each-Way
200/1 and six places available with SpreadEx & Sporting Index when publishing.
Cameron Adam is a young Scot who could well prove to be ahead of the handicapper here and it wouldn't surprise me should he make the top 20. Another outsider who I slightly prefer and am happy to get on side is David Law, back on the DPWT following a hugely successful season on the HotelPlanner.
He added two wins to his CV this year at both the Finnish and Czech Challenge and there should be a renewed confidence that he belongs on the bigger stage. He already has a DPWT win here in Australian when he won the Vic Open back in 2019 and with a win bagged in Aviemore previously too he has the credentials to play these types of layout really well.
It's a tall order given the field but there's a handful of the market leaders in poor enough form which increases the likelihood of an upset.
