Ginger Joe's Golf Betting Tips for the Dubai Open

The 2026 DP World Tour season is up and running, with the Dubai Invitational set to take place at Dubai Creek Golf Resort. This is a par 71 measuring 7,059 yards, and it is a course that places a real emphasis on high-quality ball striking. Dubai Creek is laid out with undulating fairways, well-positioned bunkers, and firm fast greens, very much a classic Dubai style setup.

It is not a course where players can get away with poor ball striking and still score, if you are not striking it well from tee to green, you will struggle here. That makes ball striking the single most important attribute. Those who are strong from tee to green will give themselves plenty of opportunities, while anyone out of rhythm will quickly find themselves under pressure.

We have a strong field for this event, with Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood both making the trip. It would be no surprise to see the pair right at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday, as they are two of the best ball strikers in the game, and this could easily turn into a consistency battle between them. They are obvious contenders, but there are also a couple of other players in the field who tick plenty of boxes for this particular test too. Best of luck if you’re following along for the season ahead, and hopefully it will be another profitable one.

Ginger Joe's Dubai Open Betting Tips

Tommy Fleetwood  - 4pt Win

Best odds of 5/1 with Sky Bet & Paddy Power when publishing.

The first player in my squad for the Dubai Invitational is last year’s winner, Tommy Fleetwood. To my eye, he was the most impressive golfer of last season, and when I run through my own calculations, he is the player who suits this course better than anyone else in the field. His ball striking throughout last season was consistently elite, arguably the best on the PGA Tour, and it only improved as the year went on. He was outstanding in the Ryder Cup and of course, finally broke his PGA Tour duck by winning the Tour Championship, a setup that also played perfectly to his strengths.

Fleetwood has also evolved into a far more aggressive player, and crucially, he now backs that aggression up with consistent scoring, which makes him a danger in any field, especially on a course like this. Rather than defaulting to his fade, he leaned heavily into a draw shot toward the back end of last season, and that adjustment has transformed his game, allowing him to post lower scores more regularly.

While his putting may not always be his strongest asset, he gives himself more opportunities than most, and when the putter does warm up, he becomes relentless. The balance he has found between controlled aggression and consistency has been a real game changer, and I think we are set for another big year from Tommy Fleetwood. For me, he is the standout choice in the opening event of the 2026 DP World Tour.

Thriston Lawrence - 1pt Each-Way (5p)

35/1 and five places widely available.

Thriston Lawrence is next up, and he is a player who clearly performs best on proper ball-strikers’ golf courses. He has won the Omega European Masters twice, and his victory at the BMW International Open is a particularly strong piece of correlating course form here, another layout that places a heavy emphasis on quality ball striking and rewards players who excel tee to green.

Lawrence can be a little hit-and-miss on courses that don’t suit him, but when he arrives at a venue that plays to his strengths, he tends to attack relentlessly, and that’s exactly why I like him here. His natural fade shot shape is quite pronounced, which can be seen as a slight negative in some setups, but in this case, it actually works in his favour. Much of the danger here sits down the left side, where he starts the ball, but his fade means it consistently works back away from trouble rather than towards it. Another positive of that pronounced shot shape is that it forces him to be committed and aggressive, which often brings out his best golf and leads to improved consistency.

For me, he looks one of the most overpriced players in the field. I would have him much shorter than several players ahead of him in the market, and as a result, he shapes up as a strong, solid each-way bet this week.

Jacob Skov Olesen - 1pt Each-Way (5p)

100/1 and five places widely available when publishing.

You will probably see me backing Jacob Skov Olesen a fair few times this coming season, as I can see his breakthrough coming sooner rather than later. He burst onto the scene and gradually, but surely, kept climbing leaderboards to the point where his name always seemed to be there or thereabouts.

Although this is a type of golf course he hasn’t faced before, I actually think it will suit his game well. Of course, there is the obvious question of whether he can realistically match or beat the likes of Rory McIlroy or Tommy Fleetwood, but he is more than capable of scoring well, and he is only going to improve with experience.

He is still a young player, and sometimes golfers at this stage turn up to big events completely fearless, which can be a huge advantage. If he starts well, I can see him carrying that momentum through the week. Equally, even if he does get off to a slower start, he strikes me as the type of player who can produce a very low round out of nowhere and work his way right back into contention.

The magnitude of the event does make me slightly cautious, but at 100/1, he is well worth a second look in the market and makes plenty of appeal at the price.