After a 45/1 winner last week, Niall Lyons picks out six selections from 25/1 to 300/1 in this week's American Express.
American Express 2026
First of all, with only one Hawaii event this year it is worth saying that it would be criminal if we lost either Kapalua or Waialae from the schedule. Waialae is one of only a handful of courses all year that rewards the best ball strikers and for punters it's an inviting event to easily narrow down the field of potential winners.
The tour moves on to California now and we know the drill by now with the Pete Dye Stadium course being played for two days of the four, whilst the La Quinta and Nicklaus courses are used for the other two rounds.
Rahm likened this to a 'putting contest' a couple of years ago and whilst his comments were made in anger he isn't far wrong.
The courses have little or no rough and driving distance holds little advantage. Grace is given to those who struggle around the greens with simple enough green complexes and very low rough.
You'll want to avoid the greenside bunkers though as we've seen some horror stories from those down the years.
I'll be looking to those playing well on approach and guys who have a tendency to get hot with the putter.
Scottie Scheffler takes a large chunk fo the market here but in five appearances here he has gone 3-CUT-25-11-17. That is not what we expect from the world number one and there is little doubt that a contest such as this is one of the most ill suited weeks of the year for him. His weakness if anything is putting and you really need to hole an awful lot around here to get into contention.
That being said the greens are easier than most weeks on tour but should he manage to shoot 25 under par or so there will be players in the field who comfortably match him or run him very close so this is one of the rare weeks of the year where we can easily stroke him off our list at the prices. He may still win of course, but he is certainly not a betting proposition.
American Express 2026 Tips
- 2pts each-way L.Aberg 25/1 (/5 6) Bet MGM, VirginBet
- 1.25pts each-way Si Woo Kim 40/1 (1/4 6) WilliamHill, 888Sport
- 1pt each-way C.Bezuidenhout 80/1 (1/5 6) Bet MGM, VirginBet
- 0.75pt each-way B.Horschel 200/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 Place Market
- 0.75pt each-way T.Hoge 250/1 (1/5 10) General
- 0.75pt each-way C.Phillips 300/1 (1//5 8) Bet365 8 place market
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Ludvig Aberg at 25/1 (Six Places)
A quick glance at the Major markets could give us a clue as to who to bet this week and with 20/1+ available on Ludvig Aberg I am jumping at the chance of getting involved.
After winning the Genesis last February Aberg when on a bit of a horrid run, with the only highlight being a top ten at Augusta. From the Summer onwards though he turned things around and although he didn't manage a victory it was a really consistent end to the season culminating in a 3rd placed finish in the DP World Tour Championship.
Ludvig doesn't really have a weakness and that bodes well for a trip around here where he should avoid most of the trouble, especially on the Stadium track.
This is the Swede's first trip to this event but I won't be put off by that and he is a must bet if we glance towards the Majors.
The bookmakers make Ben Griffin a more likely winner this week, whilst Sam Burns is generally priced the same as Aberg.
You'll find triple figures about Burns in some Majors whilst Griffin is three times the price of Aberg for the big four.
Clearly that doesn't give us the full picture as this is not a Major Championship but I'd have Aberg way ahead of those two this week as well and he must have every chance of scoring well across the three layouts.
Si Woo Kim at 35/1 (Six Places)
It is difficult to swerve Si Woo Kim this week given he picked up exactly where he left off 2025 with an 11th placed finish at Waialae last week. 4th at the RSM Classic and 3rd in the Australian Open brought the curtain down impressively on 2025 and he can consider himself a little unlucky not to be right in contention coming down the stretch in Hawaii.
Kim ranked 3rd off the tee and 3rd on approach last week but as ever a lot of his success depends on what he does on the greens. Last week was an absolute horror show with the putter ranking dead last in the field with that club.
The reason why things could be different this week is because Kim has gained shots on the field on the greens in 5 of his last 6 appearances here, all be it with those stats only taken from the Stadium Course.
He has won here before back in 2021 and of course has that victory on another Pete Dye layout at Sawgrass back in 2017.
Two more top tens at Sawgrass as well as two top 10s at the Desert track TPC Summerlin means Kim is more than equipped to land another title here.
He had 22 chances inside 10 feet last week, the most in the field and given he has a good record on these greens he is crying out to be in the staking plan.
1.25pts each-way Si Woo Kim 35/1 (1/4 6) Boyle, Sporting Index
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Billy Horschel at 200/1 (Eight Places)
In an event that is littered with big priced winners it seems sensible to add a few from the bottom of the market and I'll start with Billy Horschel.
Horschel went off a 40/1 shot just 5 starts ago at the BMW PGA, a field which included McIlroy, Rahm, Fleetwood, Aberg and many more. He missed the cut there and finished off 2025 with finishes of 54-11-15 with the 15th coming in a 20 man field.
Nevertheless there was nothing poor about his finish to last year and he opened up with a made cut at the Sony this time but finished last of those who made the weekend.
His best finishes here are 10th, 21st and 25th but two top tens at TPC Scottsdale as well as the 11th placed finish at the Black Desert a couple of months ago suggests he's more than capable on these layouts. He's a big name who has drifted to big number.
0.75pt each-way B.Horschel 200/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 Place Market
Tom Hoge at 250/1 (Ten Places)
Tom Hoge had a fair start to his season with a top 40 last week at the Sony Open ranking reasonable numbers throughout all departments of his game.
He is exactly that, solid in most departments although undoubtedly lacking in power off the tee. Last week and now this week are venues on which he can score through and whilst the field has gotten considerably stronger for the American Express Early quotes have 500/1 and 400/1 have disappeared a little but I'll still happily get involved at 250/1+. His record here should mean he stays around the same price as last week having finished 6th in 2020 and runner up in 2022. Simply a little too big in the market and must be played.
Chandler Phillips at 300/1 (Eight Places)
I'll take a flyer on Chandler Phillips at big odds. This is one of those events where those who lack a little length off the tee can compete and just like last week Phillips stands a chance.
A top 20 last week was a fine effort to start the season and he whilst he only ranked 37th on approach for the week he had 17 opportunities inside ten feet which was only bettered by six others in the field.
That bodes well for this week where you need your wedge game to be on point and having ranked 9th on the greens at Waialae he can take confidence to the desert with that club.
He finished 25th here two years ago and is only three start removed from a runner up on the PGA Tour where he was edged out by Adam Schenk in Bermuda.
0.75pt each-way C.Phillips 300/1 (1//5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 80/1 (Six Places)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has yet to land a victory on the PGA Tour but if he is this looks like one of the more likelier venues.
The South African finished runner up here in 2024 to go with his 11th place the year prior and towards the end of 2025 looked to be stepping up a gear or two.
In October he went 6-10 across the Sanderson Farms and Baycurrent Classic before going 4-9 across the final two South African events on the DPWT. His 3rd best finish on the PGA Tour arrived at TPC Scottsdale where he finished 4th last year and looking at the end of 2025 he may just be reaching the peak of his powers.
He is capable of going very low also shooting 28 under here two years ago as well as 18 under at the John Deere in 2022 and 16 under at the Phoenix last year.
Power off the tee isn't a pre requisite this week which suits Bezuidenhout and he should be quietly confident of going around here in a really decent number.
