After a near miss in last week's DPWT event, Niall Lyons is back with three plays in the Dubai Desert Classic.
The Dubai Desert Classic is held at the Emirates GC, Dubai.
The Majlis course here in Dubai is well known to all DPWT fans and usually provides an entertaining finish with an exciting final par 5 where just about anything can happen.
Who will forget McIlroy and Reed fighting it out during the final 9 holes here a few years ago in one of the most enthralling DPWT finishes in a long time. #
Down the years no particular statistic stands much taller than any others but SG off the tee certainly appears to be the most important. Last year the first 5 home all ranked in the top 6 for strokes gained off the tee for the week. McIlroy won two years ago finishing 1st off the tee, and 2nd from tee to green. The year prior he was 2nd and 4th in the same categories. Hovland was 2nd off the tee, and 3rd tee to green two years ago when winning. Casey won the previous year having topped the tee to green stat. Arnaus was 3rd in 2020 topping the same stat so it would certainly suggest long and straight driving is a huge advantage.
Plenty of contenders here have also finished low down the strokes gained approach stat for the week which is surprising as most weeks it's a decent barometer as to who contends, however this course appears on the contrary.
Instead a good driving game coupled with a solid putter makes for a good combination around here. The winners and placers here have been a 'who's who' of Open and Links specialists.
2018 Champion Haotong Li finished 3rd on his first trip to the Open. 2017 Champion and runner up Garcia and Stenson have long been Open experts. McIlroy, Woods, Els and O'Meara are other winners here that have held the Claret Jug aloft. In 2013 and 2014 Stephen Gallacher went back to back here and one of his two other European Tour wins arrived at the Dunhill Links. Last year's winner Tyrrell Hatton has a couple of Links victories to his name and if you add in some correlation with Dom Pedro in Portugal and you have a base on which to work through the field.
Dubai Desert Classic Winner Stats
Dubai Desert Classic Tips
- 4pts WIN T.Hatton 13/1 Spreadex, SportingIndex
- 1.5pts each-way N.Hojgaard 28/1 (1/5 6) Spreadex, SportingIndex, BetMGM, VirginBet
- 0.75pt each-way J.Lagergen 125/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Bet365
- Slick, clean interface
- Full suite of safer gambling options including profit/loss
- Market leading all customer offers across all sports
Tyrrell Hatton at 13/1 (WIN)
Laurie Canter has a really nice record in these events and could make hay after what must have been a very tough decision to turn down his PGA Tour card for another attempt on the LIV circuit. Angel Ayora looks a really likely candidate to play well this week but I simply can not get involved at 28/1 with McIlroy, Fleetwwood, Hatton and Hovland in attendance.
I was tempted by Hovland but my preference by a fine margin is for Tyrrell Hatton. Last year's winner has a fine record here with three more top 4 finishes to his name at this track.
Hatton shades it over Hovland by his starts to the year in his career. Since 2014 his first appearances of the year read 10-6-61-13-15-CUT-6-WIN-6-7-14-WIN. That is a really eye catching record for starting the year given it's often a long break.
Plenty have gotten a week under their belt last week and may have an advantage but Hatton usually kicks off in fine form and having gone head to head with McIlroy a couple of times down the years and coming out on top he wouldn't shirk it should he face the same again.
Given the evidence of he plays well early in the year, and indeed on this golf course, around double the price of Tommy Fleetwood doesn't quite add up given how he performed last week.
I find it difficult to envisage Fleetwood overturning McIlroy based on last week's evidence but I can't say the same about Hatton given this is his first outing.
Nicolai Hojgaard at 28/1 (Six Places)
Nicolai Hojgaard finished well down the field last week but that doesn't put me off getting involved here at the Emirates course that should be much more up his street.
He struggled with the layout last week, especially off the tee which is his big asset and there's a trend of him not doing so well on the tighter golf courses. There was danger all over the place last week and perhaps his first outing of 2026 wasn't at an ideal venue.
With some rust shaken off he returns to the Majlis where he finished 7th two years ago. With the winners and contenders here having a long history of good records either on inks or in Dubai Nicolai stands up to that test.
He has a victory and a top 5 at the Earth Course, two top 6 finishes at the Renaissance and a runner up at Dom Pedro.
This test should be ideal for Hojgaard and if we're looking to golfers who can beat McIlroy on one his most prolific courses then Nicolai fits the bill as he beat the world's best in the DP World Tour Championship at the back end of 2023.
Overall I just feel he has drifted to too big of a number and too much emphasis has been put on a performance at a track that really doesn't suit his game off the tee. He can attack this golf course and show his class.
1.5pts each-way N.Hojgaard 28/1 (1/5 6) Spreadex, SportingIndex, BetMGM, VirginBet
Paddy Power
- Trusted parent company
- Industry leader in promotions/marketing
- Competitive pricing
Joakim Lagergren at 125/1 (Eight Places)
I don't expect Joakim Lagergren to get the better of all the talent above him this week but I can't help but feel he is a little overpriced given his abilities in this sort of test.
He has a 2nd and 3rd at the Dunhill Links, a 3rd at Dom Pedro, 8th at the Fire course in Dubai as well as a handful of other top 20s at notable suitable courses.
He pulled out all the stop at the K Club in September only to be denied by the parable of the local hero.
A fair start to the year was recorded last week with a top 30 finish and over the last year he has become a much more consistent operator. Given the links form that stands up here he's a nice play at triple figures.
0.75pt each-way J.Lagergen 125/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
