Farmers Insurance Open 2026 First Round Leader Tips From 40/1 to 50/1

Seonghyeon Kim – North Course - 50/1 (5 Places)

Seonghyeon Kim has been a fast starter of late, with his last five opening rounds producing finishes of 2-2-56-2-3-3, the most recent two coming on the PGA Tour.

He has been firmly in contention in his last two starts. At the Sony Open, where he finished 13th, Kim sat third after the opening round and led the field at halfway before fading over the weekend. A similar pattern followed at the American Express, as he was third after round one and fourth heading into the weekend. An opening 63, followed by rounds of 66 on Friday and Sunday, underlined how well he played last week, aside from one below-par performance on Saturday.

Kim also has solid form at this event. He finished T20 in 2023 and made the cut in 2024, missing the cut in 2025, but his tendency to start quickly is notable.

In 2023, he opened with a five-under 67 on the North Course to sit T12 after day one. Although he struggled on the South Course in round two, he responded with a 69 in round three on that same layout, the joint seventh-lowest score of the day, to sit eighth heading into the final round.

In 2024, he began with a 69 on the South Course, the sixth-lowest score on that course on day one, and sat T10 going into the weekend.

Last year, he again started strongly, opening with a five-under 67 on the North Course to finish round one T8.

Much of his recent success has been driven by the putter. Kim ranks ninth in the field for Strokes Gained Putting across the last two tournaments and has also gained strokes around the green, ranking 22nd for scrambling.

He clearly enjoys playing in California, ranking 21st in this field for Strokes Gained Total on Californian courses over the past three years, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Fortinet Championship, fourth place finishes at the 2024 CJ Cup and the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open, and T12 and T13 finishes at the Sony Open.

With strong recent form, proven course credentials, an excellent short game, and a clear habit of starting quickly, Kim looks well placed to feature prominently on the North Course on Thursday.

Seonghyeon Kim – First Round Leader North Course - 1pt EW at 50/1 (5 Places) (Betfred, Ladbrokes)

Ricky Castillo – North Course – 40/1 (5 Places)

Ricky Castillo begins on the North Course and looks a strong fit for the layout, particularly given his tendency to start quickly in recent outings.

Length and quality off the tee are a clear advantage here, with wider fairways and fewer bunkers than the South Course. Castillo ranks 29th in this field for carry distance over the last year and 31st for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also profiles well with his irons from the rough, ranking among the best for approach proximity from the rough and sitting third over the past 12 months for Greens in Regulation from the rough. That should allow him to be aggressive off the tee and set up short wedge approaches into the bentgrass greens, where chances from 10–20 feet are very makeable.

The North Course consistently rewards power. In this event last year, players such as Springer, Åberg, Potgieter and Gotterup posted some of the lowest scores, while in 2024 the likes of Kevin Yu, Patrick Cantlay, Jaeger, Rodgers, Tosti and Nicolai Højgaard all thrived -  a common theme among long hitters.

Scoring opportunities are plentiful. There are four par fives measuring under 560 yards, all carrying an average eagle rate of 3.1%, one of the highest on Tour. The driveable par-four seventh also boasts a birdie-or-better rate of 36%. Capitalising on these holes is essential to posting a low number, and Castillo has the firepower to attack them.

Castillo arrives as one of the more in-form putters in the field too, ranking 18th for Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 30 rounds, while also sitting 18th for scrambling percentage over the past year. He ranked third for SG: Putting at the RSM Classic in November and 16th in that category at the Sony Open.

Long, reasonably accurate, and confident with the putter, Castillo can consistently place himself in strong positions off the tee and give himself enough looks with his wedges to capitalise on his putting strengths.

His 15th-place finish in difficult conditions at this event last year further underlines his suitability for the course. An opening-round 67 on the North Course to sit T8 after day one stands out, particularly when paired with first-round finishes of 11th and 17th in two of his last three PGA Tour starts.

While his iron play has been a slight concern recently, there were encouraging signs at the American Express, where he gained strokes on approach, finishing the round with +2.15 SG: Approach - the sixth-best figure in that round. Carrying that forward would put him in a strong position to go low in the opening round.

Ricky Castillo – North Course – 1pt EW at 40/1 (5 Places) (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Andrew Novak – South Course – 50/1 (Five Places)

Andrew Novak took to the challenge at Torrey Pines last season, finishing third at the Farmers Insurance Open and following that up with a 13th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational shortly afterwards.

On both occasions, his long-iron play and putting stood out. He ranked 11th and 12th for Strokes Gained: Putting, alongside 7th and 35th for Strokes Gained: Approach. That profile is no surprise given his wider numbers: over the last three years on poa annua greens, Novak ranks first for SG: Putting, while over the last 12 months he sits 19th in this field for approach proximity from 200–250 yards. A great recipe for success here.

He arrives here after a rare missed cut, but that came at an event he has historically struggled with, having missed the cut four times previously at La Quinta. For the purposes of a first-round angle, there were still positives to take, most notably an eight-under 64 in round one, the fourth-lowest score recorded on the La Quinta course.

Looking at his recent PGA Tour starts, Novak’s last three first-round finishes read 4th, 8th and 12th. Course-specific form further strengthens the case. Across his last four appearances here, he has a tied-first after round one on the South Course at the 2023 Farmers, as well as a T7 first-round position at the 2025 Genesis Invitational. He also produced a superb 66 in round three of the 2025 Farmers, the joint-lowest score of that round.

With proven Torrey Pines form, strong long-iron numbers and a reliable putter on poa greens, Novak looks well equipped to feature early on the South Course.

Andrew Novak – South Course – 1pt EW at 50/1 (Five Places) (BetMGM)