Niall Lyons picks out three to back at this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach.
Pebble Beach Pro-AM
2023 saw a change in format in this event with the Monterey course being binned and the players heading to Spyglass Hill for one round over the first two days and the other three rounds being played at Pebble Beach. The action undoubtedly ramps up this week with the signature event status and although it may not be long before I'm a little sick of this format again for now I'm glad to see the world's best assembled for the first time this year.
Course form holds up extremely well here. Snedeker (twice), Mickelson (4 times), Dustin Johnson (twice), Davis Love (twice) are a handful of golfers with multiple wins at Pebble since the turn of the century. Numerous others have contended on a regular basis. Former Open winner Mark O'Meara won five times here at Pebble Beach. Woods, Mickelson, Spieth and most recently McIlroy have joined that party since in winning the Open and this and it stands to reason that form by the sea is often an advantage heading into this event. Justin Rose was the first European winner of this event dating all the way back to the 1930s and only him, Brett Ogle, Vijay Singh, Nick Taylor and Rory have wrestled it off the Americans in the last 60+ years.
With the small greens here approach play is key, especially from the 75-150 yard distance. Scrambling is also a heavy part of the equation and those who putt well on Poa Annua greens should also be closely watched.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips
- 3pts each-way T.Fleetwood 28/1 (1/4 5) Bet MGM, Virgin Bet
- 1.5pts each-way L.Aberg 45/1 (1/4 5) Spreadex, SportingIndex
- 1pt each-way A.Bhatia 80/1 (1/4 5) BetMGM, VirginBet
BetMGM UK
Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (Five Places)
Xander Schauffele makes an awful lot of sense once again this week but I simply can not take that plunge again with egg already plastered on my face and my tears diluting spilt dairy products on the floor.
One that undeniably was always going to be in my staking plan at these odds is Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood had started the year just a point or 2 bigger in the markets in Dubai in January and although he didn't put his best foot forward this surely can not result in him being double the price of the defending champion.
He drove the ball to his usual standard both weeks in Dubai, had one good week and one bad week with the irons, and the same outcome with his short game. It remains to be seen whether there is a legitimate hangover from the best year in his career but I'd be surprised if there was from a player like Tommy and 2026 looks like perfect timing for him to potentially land Major number one.
Form of 45-31-22 doesn't really add up here as this ought to be a fine venue for the Englishman but the putter has been the main club that has cost him. Slower, Poa greens should give him an advantage on the field if anything so maybe in time we'll see a natural upturn in that department.
I made the case at the end of last year he was the second best golfer in the world at that time and I believe he was. Clearly at least 3rd, he needs to step back on the horse now that tournament play really ramps up heading to Augusta.
More than anything though it's the price that dictates the bet here. We simply can not let Fleetwood pass us by here at 25/1.
Ludvig Aberg at 45/1 (Five Places)
Like Schauffele, I've been tempted a little too much by Ludvig Aberg early on this season also but this week is an even bigger task to avoid him.
The Swede withdrew with illness from the American Express and cut a struggling figure when finishing in the bottom 5 at Torrey Pines. Had he gotten over the illness in time to play Torrey I don't know but a week off is surely beneficial and unless there's a serious problem with his game (unlikely as we haven't heard) then the price is too tempting to turn down.
Having withdrawn here last year he went onto win two weeks later at Torrey Pines and that was part of my reasoning into not being put off a few weeks ago. The extra week off maybe benefitted him last year and maybe that's the tonic this time around also.
He was somewhat of an unlucky loser in 2024 with Wyndham Clark coming from the clouds to shoot a 12 under par round and steal the 54 hole lead from Aberg, a feat which proved fatal to the Swede as the event was subsequently reduced to 3 rounds.
Years ago folk kicked themselves letting Brooks Koepka go unbacked at 25/1+ to win Majors whenever he was going through a purple patch in those events, similarly I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest this is a serious downturn in Aberg's game to suggest he should be going off the same price as the likes of Jason Day and Daniel Berger.
1.5pts each-way L.Aberg 45/1 (1/4 5) Spreadex, SportingIndex
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Akshay Bhatia at 80/1 (Five Places)
With the American dominance of this event down the years it'd be silly not to include one and my preference at the prices is for Akshay Bhatia.
The lefty, originally from California really ought to have a slightly better record in these events on the West Coast but maybe last week is the start of something special. His 3rd place in Phoenix was statistically his 3rd best performance on the PGA Tour behind his win in Texas and 3rd place at the Players Championship.
This isn't an overly demanding track off the tee and instead it's more about what you do on approach and onwards. Bhatia is immensely talented with an iron in his hand and more than equipped with his putter.
The two times he has played here he has putted extremely well which bodes well after a great week with the same club at Scottsdale.
With his irons firing once again after a slow start the first couple weeks of the year this may be the perfect venue for Bhatia to make hay.
