Niall Lyons has five selections in the Magical Kenya Open at Karen golf course.
Magical Kenya Open
A trip to Kenya is always a welcome one for punters with this Karen golf course taking up hosting duties once again for the first time since 2021. Muthaiga has been the venue ever since and both have plenty of similarities.
Karen is a golf course at altitude so distance off the tee isn't a pre requisite. It is worth noting though that Guido Migliozzi ranked 2nd off the tee when winning back in 2019 and Harding was 19th in the same statistic in 2021. The first two home in 2021 were 1st and 2nd in strokes gained tee to green whilst the same played out in 2021 with the top 4 in the tee to green category all finishing in the top 6 and ties.
It does seem this will be won and lost with what you to tee to green and although tight in places there is certainly room for a powerhouse off the tee.
With Danie van Tonder, Guido Migliozzi, Adri Arnaus and Kurt Kitayama fighting out the finish at a couple of tournaments here in Karen it suggests sluggers off the tee are certainly worthy of consideration even with the altitude help.
With that in mind results at Muthaiga and in particular Crans deserve closer inspection.
Magical Kenya Open Tips
4pts WIN A.Ayora 12/1 General
1.5pts each-way A.Fitzpatrick 33/1 (1/5 6) General
1.25pts each-way J.Kruyswijk 50/1 (1/5 6) General
0.75pt each-way A.Otaegui 150/1 (1/5 6) General
0.75pt each-way Q.Debove 400/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
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Angel Ayora at 12/1 (WIN)
Last time out in Qatar Patrick Reed, Jayden Schaper, Daniel Hillier and Matt Wallace headed the market but a trip to Kenya is a little too far for these guys now and as a result it paves the way for Angel Ayora to land his maiden victory on the DPWT.
After a somewhat disappointing start and middle to his first full season on tour last year he really motored from August onwards with seven top 10s coming in his final ten events of the season.
A few of those were in impressive fields, much, much stronger than what we see here in Kenya. If the aforementioned golfers were teeing it up at Karen that 5th place would entitle Ayora to shorten a little from the 16/1 he went off in Qatar.
Throw in the fact those big four are missing and any double figure prices here are worthy of supporting. Ayora should be able to attack this golf course, maybe a little more than what the course narrative suggests.
The Spaniard has ranked 3rd and 4th in strokes gained tee to green in two of his last four starts and a similar effort here will put him in a commanding position.
Last year he was 20th at Muthaiga and 8th at Crans so tools for this type of test are in his wheelhouse. Should he have a decent putting week it is frightening to think what he could achieve around Karen.
It is fair to say I'm fairly excited about he prospect of backing Ayora this week and I'll back myself with a suitable stake.
Alex Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (Six Places)
Davis Bryant is an interesting one hailing from Colorado where altitude plays a big part. The eye is drawn to him a little more seeing as he is a fair drifter in the market in a much stronger field than what was presented in Qatar. He wasn't far off finishing dead last there though so it is difficult to be enthusiastic about his chances despite his price being a small positive.
Alex Fitzpatrick remains a similar price as to what he was in Qatar and he is the second to make the staking plan. The Englishman had a really solid start to the year with top 20s coming in the Dubai Desert and in Bahrain. That marked nine cuts in a row for him but that run was halted in Qatar.
He opened with a 75 there before shooting a second round of 68 to just miss the cut on the number so nothing really puts me off with that effort. He has proven more than comfortable at altitude thus far with two top 6 finishes at Crans and a top 20 posted at Muthaiga also.
He is one who doesn't shorten much from his Qatar price despite this being a weaker affair and he should be looking to this as a huge chance to land his maiden victory on the DPWT after a handful of close calls.
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Jacques Kruyswijk at 50/1 (Six Places)
Gegorio De Leo made the shortlist as does Sebastien Soderberg who has all the right credentials for a title tilt this week and with his 5th placed finish in Qatar certainly comes into consideration. A winner at Crans and a couple of fair efforts at Karen make him an interesting prospect but preference at the prices is for Jacques Kruyswijk.
We opted for the South African in Qatar and although it was his best effort off the tee in eight months, the iron play that had become a feature of some really nice golf in the past few months deserted him.
A return to Karen though is more than welcome, a venue on which he has twice finished 5th. His last eight rounds there read 68-72-65-64-70-64-68-64.
He knows how to go low around here and having won at Muthaiga last year has the chance to go back to back. He is an improving sort who warrants a lot of respect this week.
Adrian Otaegui at 150/1 (Six Places)
I'll have a small wager on Adrian Otaegui at triple figure prices. Otaegui lacks a little length off the tee but should be helped by the increase in altitude this week.
Should it turn into an affair where accuracy off the tee delivers more than anticipated then he fits the bill. He started the year well with a top 15 at the Dubai Invitational beating the likes of Schaper and Neergaard Petersen and one shot behind the tournament favourite this week Angel Ayora.
Two missed cuts followed but a 52nd in Qatar was a little bit better than what it looks on paper. He ranked 9th from tee to green that week only to have a nightmare on the greens ranking 67th in strokes gained putting.
Should he manage a similar effort from tee to green this week an average performance with the putter could see him in the conversation at the weekend.
Quentin Debove at 400/1 (Eight Places)
My final selection is a small bet at massive odds for Frenchman Quentin Debove. We don't know an awful lot about him but having qualified from the Tour School at the end of last year and with a victory on the Alps Tour last September there is certainly a lot to be optimistic about.
Two missed cuts started the year but he finished an impressive 24th in Qatar with four solid rounds which included a 2nd round 67.
It's an extremely small sample size but I can't help but feel it's no coincidence that both Fred Biondi and Quentin Debove's best efforts on the DPWT have both come when they've been playing the same event.
They roomed together for four years at College in Florida and now both with their tour cards it would not surprise me should either of them take the next step up quite quickly.
Evidence so far suggests Debove is the more likely and it seems a no brainer to play at these odds given his performance last time out.
0.75pt each-way Q.Debove 400/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
