Niall Lyons has five bets from this week's Cognizant Classic at PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Cognizant Classic
Outside of the Majors this course traditionally was one of the toughest courses with the winning score rarely reaching double figures under par, but the last five renewals on the trot have rached ten under or better with Highsmith reaching 19 under par last year.
This is certainly a week where driving accuracy trumps driving distance. Last year Highsmith ranked 14th in accuracy. In 2024 Eckroat ranked 3rd in the same stat.
The year prior only one player in the top 20 in driving distance for the week finished inside the top 9 on the leaderboard, whilst four of the top 6 in driving accuracy filled those spots.
In 2022 Straka led the driving accuracy stat when winning so it's clear ball striking is key when it comes to making a score around PGA National. Weather forecast is always important around here also as wind plays havoc with some approach shots, especially the par 3s in the 'bear trap' (holes 15 through 17).
It's no surprise we have a long list of winners and contenders here who have played well at Open Championships. Fowler, Scott, Harrington, McIlroy, Els, Hamilton, Leonard, Kuchar, Parnevik, Calcavecchia, O'Meara and Price are a handful to have won this event and either won or gone very close to winning the Open Championship.
2022 Champion Sepp Straka was runner up to Brian Harman in an Open Championship so there may be clues as to who could contend here looking at recent Open results.
Results in the Sony Open at Waialae are another angle to look at with many having performed well on both within a short space of time.
Cognizant Classic 2026 Tips
- 1.5pts each-way J.Keefer 55/1 (1/5 8) Paddypoer, Skybet
- 1.5pts each-way B.Koepka 40/1 (spreadex, SportingIndex, Bet MGM, VirginBet)
- 1pt each-way G.Higgo 66/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, Paddypower
- 1pt each-way M.Brennan 75/1 (1/5 6) Starsports, PricedUp
- 1pt each-way M.Wallace 60/1 (1/5 8) Betfred, Skybet, Paddypower
Cognizant Classic 2026 Winner Stats
Johnny Keefer at 55/1 (Eight Places)
I'm keen on Johnny Keefer's chances this week headed to PGA National. Keefer managed two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and after a missed cut last November in Mexico he can be proud enough of his starts since.
7th at the RSM Classic followed Mexico then another four made cuts on the trot to start 2025. 61-27-43-41 doesn't tell the full story of the year thus far though.
4th in approach play at the Stadium Course at the Amex has been the highlight in an imperious display of ball striking in all four events he has played this term.
On all four occasions he has lost significant ground on the field on and around the greens. That will need to turn around this week but this is a venue on which ball striking is rewarded highly and if he can reproduce what he has with his long game so far in 2025 then he has a massive chance.
Having played College golf in Texas he should be used to the winds that usually swirl around this layout and being long and straight off the tee should benefit him greatly here.
This is probably his best chance to date on the PGA Tour and I love the course fit for someone who has made a quick rise up the game's ranks.
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Brooks Koepka at 40/1 (Six Places)
It's not an overly exciting market this and I'm taking what looks like a sensible but uninspiring option in the shape of Brooks Koepka.
He has made 5 from 7 cuts here and closest back in 2019 when finishing runner up. Similar to Keefer the main reason for selecting him is the quality of his ball striking so far this year.
He didn't pull up any trees when he missed the cut at Phoenix last time out but his long game was fine and was let down by a really bad effort on the greens. It was the same story at Torrey Pines where his long game was impressive but an even worse performance with the putter was the reason why he finished down in 56th spot.
There is no guarantee of course that there will be an upturn in fortune with that club but his long game is certainly in good enough shape to be rewarded around PGA National.
1.5pts each-way B.Koepka 40/1 (spreadex, SportingIndex, Bet MGM, VirginBet)
Garrick Higgo at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Garrick Higgo's current form doesn't strike you as somebody who is about to win a PGA Tour event but it's important to note some recent events haven't exactly been his bag so to speak and now back at PGA National, a venue which tests ball flight in the wind he should be able to put his best foot forward.
Higgo was dead last at Riviera and even though an inexperienced sort won last week that golf course is notoriously tough for first timers.
Whilst I'm uneasy about a last placed spot it's important to remember I passed up Davis Bryant last week in Kenya having been well down the field in Qatar despite being much more suited to the test ahead.
Higgo thrives under these conditions. A win in Puntacana, another two by the coast in the Canary Islands then a win at the Palmetto not far from the East Coast suggests he is much more suited by these examinations.
Higgo was a 70/1 shot at Phoenix a few weeks ago, a field that contained the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele, Matsuyama, Hovland and Morikawa.
Anything north of 50/1 looks worth playing here back at a venue on which he has made the cut on all three occasions.
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Michael Brennan at 75/1 (Six Places)
Even though I don't consider PGA National to be a perfect partner for Michael Brennan I can't help but feel he is worth supporting at the price.
Brennan burst onto the scene by winning the Bank of Utah Championship in fine style last October and results wise it has been a bit of a struggle since.
He is a massive hitter of the ball so may be slightly curtailed by this venue but having went off a 33/1 shot for the Sony Open last month we now see more than double that price and I'm unsure as to whether his golf warrants that type of drift.
Brennan was 20th in strokes gained off the tee and 25th in strokes gained approach at the Amex. He was 27th in both those categories at a much stronger Phoenix event last time out.
56th and 48th in those two events were solely down to a really misfiring short game. Now he can't afford that around PGA National either, but his ball striking throughout the last month has been spot on and if he can reproduce those efforts and have an upturn in his short game he'd be a dangerous operator here.
Matt Wallace at 60/1 (Eight Places)
Alex Smalley looks a lively contender this week but the market has gotten hold of his price for the moment. Matt Wallace lined up as an 18/1 shot a few weeks ago in Qatar, around 7pts bigger than the tournament favourite and eventual winner Patrick Reed.
Now if Reed lined up in this field I would imagine in his current form he would be close to favourite. If we assume Reed would be around the 16/1 mark the price difference between him and Wallace (now 66/1) looks a little too wide.
Wallace had a fantastic week with the irons in Qatar and was let down by a less than average short game. Wallace fares better on courses that don't demand a lot of length and a little bit more strategy off the tee should suit here.
20th and 29th his best two finishes here he certainly hasn't dazzled around this venue but can't help but feel his price looks a shade of value this time around.
1pt each-way M.Wallace 60/1 (1/5 8) Betfred, Skybet, Paddypower
