Niall Lyons picks out three fancies in the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club, Orlando, Florida.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational will be held at Bay Hill Club, Orlando, Florida.
Three of the last six here have been won in single digits under par and providing the rain stays away we can guarantee a firm golf course with some juicy rough. This is one course that tests all facets of the game and you'll find it tough to get away with it if any single part of your game is not on point.
That plays out in the stats and as you see below driving distance and driving accuracy are much the same. Morikawa led driving accuracy last year when runner up.
1st and 3rd in driving accuracy in 2024 both finished inside the top 5. Kitayama and English both hit the most fairways in 2023 when finishing 1st and 2nd.
However, the second longest driver in the field was joint second in the shape of McIlroy. DeChambeau won in 2021 topping the driving distance stat also.
30% of approach shots here come in from 200+ yards so the iron game is key and it may pay to look to those who excel from those distances. That means scrambling becomes an important part of the jigsaw and the leader in that stat has featured in the top 5 in three of the last four years.
Therefore, no part of the game can be neglected here and perhaps the best stat to look to will be tee to green. Those ranked 3-1-5-4-7 in that stat last year all finished in the top 5. Those ranked 1st, 2nd, 5th and 6th from tee to green two years ago finished inside the top 5. Five of the top ten in that statistic made the frame in 2023, three of the top ten the year before, and five of the top ten in 2021.
Tee to green experts excel here, whether making gains by distance or accuracy off the tee, and those who arrive in Florida without good numbers in this stat recently may struggle.
Arnold Palmer Winner Stats
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips
4pts WIN R.McIlroy 10/1 AK Bets
1.5pts each-way S.Lowry 40/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
1pt each-way K.Mitchell 80/1 (1/4 5) General
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Rory McIlroy at 10/1 (WIN)
Rory McIlroy had a somewhat difficult start to the year in Dubai with his iron play suffering. A switch to blades has resulted in him improving greatly since he kicked off his Stateside campaign finishing 14th at Pebble before an unlucky runner up spot at the Genesis.
The reigning Masters champion was 4th in approach play at Pebble then 3rd in the same department at Riviera. He really ought to have won at the latter ranking 40th on the greens on Saturday and 45th on Sunday.
His putter was ice cold over the weekend and he still went extremely close to overcoming a career effort Jacob Bridgeman.
Each of the last three years McIlroy has managed a victory before the Masters and having landed multiple Florida events in the last handful of years he has to be a dangerous operator here this week.
Scheffler continued his round one hangover at Riviera and as I mentioned in that preview this has an awful habit of repeating and it's a little worrying for the world number one in the run up the years first Major.
Fleetwood has only one top 5 finish here in nine attempts so it doesn't strike me as a venue on which to get involved with him just yet whilst question marks still remain whether Schauffele is capable right now of beating a field of this calibre.
Stick to the tried and tested at this venue and the player who ranked 1st from tee to green at Riviera. McIlroy at 10/1 can't be sniffed at.
Shane Lowry at 40/1 (Eight Places)
Shane Lowry will have plenty of demons to overcome the next time he enters a back 9 on Sunday with the lead but sometimes these things are blown out of proportion. It's part of the reason why I've gone off backing him in weaker fields at smaller prices and I'd rather take the chance on him at juicier odds in a field such as this.
Him and Adam Scott went off a similar price last week at the Cognizant and Lowry is more entitled to go off a lot shorter than what Scott is this week and not the general 5pts difference we see in the market.
Lowry is more than capable of overcoming that setback and it'll be forgotten about a little more quickly than the public imagine. After a really sketchy record at Bayhill Lowry has been lit up here the last two years leading at halfway in 2024 then leading after rounds 1, 2 and 3 last year.
Mishaps have gotten in his way to result in 7th an 3rd placed finishes but he has shown a real fire for this place and it's possibly the most ideal venue for him to play following the heartbreaking finish last week at PGA National.
His collapse there has resulted in the bookmakers not clipping his price as much as they should and the 45/1 on offer is worth taking.
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Keith Mitchell at 80/1 (Five Places)
Finally I can't resist a stab at Keith Mitchell who at 80/1 represents fair value in this field. Mitchell went off a 25/1 shot for the Cognizant last week and following a 6th placed finish there is entitled to go off a little shorter than what he currently is.
His standout career performance to date was indeed at PGA National but he has played fairly well at Bayhill down the years. 6th in 2019 and 5th in 2020 were fine efforts here and having ranked 9th from tee to green last week should have plenty going for him.
He ranked 16th from tee to green at Pebble the previous start with a poor enough week off the tee. He ranked 1st from tee to green at Torrey Pines a couple of weeks prior so I'm surprised this carrot has been dangled for someone with a Florida record as good as his.
The quality of his long game marries with a very fair price so he has to be included.
