Niall Lyons picks out four to follow in the 2026 Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Palm Harbour, Florida.
Valspar Championship
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Palm Harbour, Florida. As ever in Florida the weather needs some attention and if there's much wind in the forecast we could see those specialists dominating the leaderboard.
Over the last seven renewals here we have only had five winners with Sam Burns and Paul Casey both winning back to back. KJ Choi and Retief Goosen are another two since 2000 who have won on multiple occasions here which means eight renewals have been shared between just four players. Therefore we must pay close attention to previous winners as well as those with course form who haven't managed a victory here.
We have a long list of champions here who fit the 'plodding' type with Casey, Hadwin, Senden, Streelman, Donald, Furyk and Choi all winning here. Very few of the winners can be labelled as bombers off the tee and this adds up with the course having many dog legs and lay ups off the tee.
It certainly requires a good deal more strategy than most courses on the circuit and it's no surprise we've had three US Open winners who have lifted this trophy at Copperhead.
Neither driving accuracy or distance is favoured here, instead look to those who make their gains from tee to green, by not necessarily driving the ball far.
As you can see by the tables below the top 5 here down the years have been dominated by those who have made their gains from tee to green, and those who have previously made those gains at the likes of Colonial, Sedgefield or Harbour Town will be of particular interest.
Valspar Championship Winner Stats
Valspar Championship 2026 Tips
3pts each-way J.Thomas 20/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
1.25pts each-way A.Rai 50/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
1.25pts each-way W.Clark 60/1 (1/5 6) General
1.5pts each-way S.Theegala 35/1 (1/5 6) General
Justin Thomas at 20/1 (Ten Places)
Justin Thomas had a bit of a rollercoaster week at Sawgrass but ultimately it saw him finish in 8th place and it looked every bit the big step forward that he needed after a return from injury. I may be taking a risk in that regard that one good week isn't enough to hang your hat on but following Arnold Palmer and a TGL run out Thomas looked every bit the player of old last week.
There were always disasters to avoid around Sawgrass and unfortunately he ran one big one up at the 6th on Saturday. He dropped four shots in the space of two holes but I was so impressed with how he handled that shooting 3 under over the final 12 to get back into position for Sunday.
He ranked 7th in approach play and that was the standout from last week. 57th off the tee is of no concern this week as there are plenty of tee shots here that are half shots and lay ups. He can let his irons do the talking here.
His record here reads 10-18-CUT-13-3-10-64-2 and it would be no surprise to me should he finally get over the line here. He maybe ought to have won here last year but was pipped by a late run from Hovland.
With a victory at Harbour Town his form ties really nicely with this event and I expected him to be a fair bit shorter than the current prices.
Aaron Rai at 50/1 (Ten Places)
Aaron Rai looks to be a shade overlooked at the prices and on a venue which should suit he makes the staking plan.
His only visit here was back in 2024 where he missed the cut but he is a much more consistent and complete operator nowadays. His missed cut at Sawgrass last week was his first since last August and we know results there for even the best players in the world are naturally all over the place due to the nature of the course.
Copperhead should really suit and his tee to green game has been in solid nick these last number of months. It's easily forgotten that it was just over four months ago that he defeated the likes of Fleetwood and McIlroy to win the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
His form since then has been unspectacular but given the nature of the test here and that driving distance is irrelevant I believe he holds a better chance than what the market currently suggests.
Wyndham Clark at 60/1 (Six Places)
Wyndham Clark was 5th on his last appearance here at Copperhead back in 2023 and looks a little underestimated by the books.
Clark has had plenty of problems over the last couple of years, both on and off the golf course but his long game looks in suitable enough condition to make a go at this. Just over a month ago Clark was the same price as what he is this week for the Phoenix Open, an event which included Scottie Scheffler.
Clark ranked 27th from tee to green last week at Sawgrass despite finishing well down the field in the off the tee rankings. His approach play was really good (18th) and had his putter managed to heat up he'd have posted a much better finish than 42nd.
It was the same story at Riviera where he ranked 10th in the field from tee to green but a horror show on the greens strangled him once again.
He is a former US Open winner and can play these tougher layouts well. Will need the putter to show a revival but he's capable here at a really nice price.
Sahith Theegala at 35/1 (Six Places)
Finally I'll include Sahith Theegala who has hit some really nice form again since the beginning of the year. Arguably the weakest aspect of his game is the driver but that has been performing well in the last month or so with a slight dip last week which is understandable around Sawgrass.
He joint led after day one last week before eventually finishing 32nd. This test should suit a little better with a lot more strategy at play at Copperhead and less onus on what you do off the tee.
He finished 7th here on debut back in 2022 then 36th last year so in two appearances has shown enough that the course suits. 2nd and 5th at Harbour Town is a fair sign that he can go well here and last week was a fine tune up.
