Two to consider in the FRL market at the Valspar Championship.
Valspar Championship FRL
Ryo Hisatsune at 40/1 (Seven Places - Ladbrokes) - 1pt ew
The 23-year-old arrives off the back of a hugely encouraging T13 finish at The Players Championship, where he ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (a crucial stat here), picking up an eye-catching +2.69 strokes per round. That level of ball-striking is no flash in the pan either — he’s now gained strokes tee-to-green and ball-striking in 12 consecutive measured events.
What makes Hisatsune particularly appealing in the first-round leader market is how quickly he tends to settle into tournaments. He hasn’t been outside the top 30 after round one in his last five starts and, notably, held the solo lead after day one at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this season. Fast starts are becoming a habit.
Dig a little deeper and the profile becomes even more compelling. No player in this week’s field has created more birdie-or-better opportunities inside 10 feet from 150–175 yards than Hisatsune this season (20.7%), a crucial range given the approach distribution at this venue. Even when the test stretches longer, he remains elite — ranking among the very best from 200+ yards, a key asset on a layout that demands quality long-iron play.
Encouragingly, his one recent weakness, the putter, may be mitigated this week on poa trivialis greens, a surface that can often level the playing field. If he finds even a neutral week on the greens, his tee-to-green dominance gives him every chance to post a low Thursday number.
Course history only strengthens the case. Hisatsune finished T4 here last year, including a second-round 66 that stood as the lowest score of the day - clear evidence he’s comfortable going low on this track.
With elite approach numbers (third in this field over the last three months), proven fast starts, and a game built to generate high volumes of birdie looks, Hisatsune ticks every box for a first-round leader play. There’s volatility in his aggressive style, but that’s exactly what you want in this market — and few in this field offer a higher Thursday ceiling.
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Austin Smotherman at 45/1 (Seven Places - Ladbrokes) - 1pt ew
Smotherman led after round one at both the The Players Championship and the Cognizant Classic in recent starts, underlining just how quickly he can get out of the blocks. At the latter, he didn’t just start fast, he carried that momentum deep into Sunday, eventually finishing runner-up after holding the lead through three rounds.
That ability to post a number early is being fuelled by elite ball-striking. Across his last three standout events, he’s ranked first, second and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — including a top-six mark in that metric against an elite field at Sawgrass.
He ranks first in this field for SG: Approach over both the last three and six months, and also tops the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over a six-month sample. Simply put, few are hitting it better right now.
He led the field on approach at the American Express, backed that up with another top-10 showing in the same category at the Cognizant, and remained comfortably inside the top 15 at TPC Sawgrass. That level of control gives him a steady stream of birdie chances — exactly what’s needed to go low on day one.
Course experience is another tick in the box. Previous finishes of 25th and 36th here came before his most recent development as a player, and he now returns sharper, more confident, and statistically superior across the board.
When you combine elite current ball-striking, a proven tendency to start fast, and a player clearly growing in belief at this level, Smotherman makes plenty of appeal as a first-round leader candidate. If he continues to stripe it the way he has been, it wouldn’t take much with the putter for him to set the early clubhouse target.
