Niall Lyons has a team of five to follow at the Valera Texas Open.
Valero Texas Open
Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, Texas. This Greg Norman designed track has proven reasonably tough down the years with regular mid teen scores under par winning, but with no wind Corey Conners blitzed the course with a 20 under par total back in 2019.
Similar played out two years ago when Akshay Bhatia looked to have the event sewn up early before needing to fight out a playoff with Denny McCarthy. Wind as always plays a huge part in Texas and will determine scoring here to a fair degree.
Studying the tables below nothing in particular stands out to easily narrow down the list of potential winners. Of the 34 who have made the top 5 and ties over the past five editions only six have ranked inside the top 10 in driving distance.
Similarly driving accuracy doesn't feature an awful lot in the contenders statistics either. Instead look to tee to green performers who make most of their gains through their approach play.
Conners and Spieth, three of the last five winners certainly fit into that category and if you take the 2024, 2023 and 2021 results only four of the sixteen who featured in the top 5 ranked outside the top 8 in approach play for the week.
It certainly pays to look at the ball strikers here and if you can hit the ball far off the tee in that scenario then you have a solid foundation on which to score here.
Niall Lyons 2026 Valero Texas Open Tips
3pts WIN T.Fleetwood 16/1 Paddypower, Skybet
2pts each-way K.Keefer 40/1 (1/5 10) Ladbrokes, Coral
2pts each-way D.Berger 33/1 (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
1.5pts each-way T.Olesen 50/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
0.75pt each-way L.Clanton 400/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
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Tommy Fleetwood at 16/1 (WIN)
I'm pleasantly surprised by the top of the market here and the eye is drawn to all three of Fleetwood, Aberg and Morikawa.
Morikawa ought to be favourite of those three given how well he has played but question marks surround his fitness following his withdrawal at Sawgrass and he is possibly best left alone until next week whilst we see how he goes in Texas.
Aberg holds obvious claims also but Fleetwood is the one who I'm prepared to invest some cash in. His extremely high standards of 2025 haven't quite been reached this year yet but at Sawgrass last time out he looked in the best form he has yet so far.
He ranked 1st in tee to green at the Players and it was only a failing putter that stopped him from contending on the final day. Bhatia ranked 24th on the greens when winning this last year whilst Corey Conners whose worst part of his game is the putter ranked 41st when he won in 2023. It's one of the least important clubs around the Oaks Course and that should be music to Tommy's ears. He finished 7th here on debut two years ago and after an opening 68 last year he sat 6th after the first round only to shoot 73-74-81 over the final three days.
Overall he has shown enough here to suggest he is up for the task a week before a Major and I believe out of anyone towards the top of that market Fleetwood will be the one tinkering the least with his swing before the Masters.
Johnny Keefer at 40/1 (Ten Places)
Having played his college golf in Texas Johnny Keefer saw an upturn in fortune last week in Houston and can be expected to go well once again.
Twice a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year Keefer has made a fair start to his PGA Tour career. Finishes of 7-61-27-43-41 at the end of last year and start of 2026 didn't exactly tell the full story as his ball striking was imperious throughout.
A failing short game meant he didn't get the results his long game deserved. His irons went wayward during the Florida swing resulting in three missed cuts but he was back in fine form at Memorial Park ranking 3rd in approach and 1st from tee to green.
Again it was the putter that let him down ranking 52nd with that club but the Oaks Course should be ideal in that what you do on the greens is the least impactful to the scores here.
It is no surprise there has been early support in the market for him but he remains a decent price to land his maiden victory on the big stage.
BresBet
Daniel Berger at 33/1 (Ten Places)
Keith Mitchell could find some joy this week and his irons are in good enough shape to have a good week. However, my eye is drawn a little bit more to Daniel Berger at slightly bigger odds and he makes the staking plan.
Berger will have considered himself very unlucky nto to have won the Arnold Palmer after putting together the kind of week that has been good enough to win Majors in the past. He ranked 1st in approach and 1st tee to green that week and it's staggering he was beat, especially by someone who ranked 45th off the tee for the four rounds.
Bhatia putted the lights out to overcome Berger in the playoff but he lost nothing in defeat. At Sawgrass Berger ranked 24th in approach which was another fine effort with his short game letting him down. Once again he should benefit from a return to the Oaks Course with not as much pressure put on that club.
He is driving the ball consistently well and ranks 6th on tour this season for strokes gained approach. It's a perfect storm and with one of his four PGA Tour victories coming in this state he should consider this a big opportunity.
Thorbjorn Olesen at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Thorbjorn Olesen is another who looks worthy of support around the 50/1 mark. The Dane has a win and a runner up at the Dunhill Links and has shown on numerous occasions that a venue on which the wind can blow will bring out the best in him.
He has made two trips here and both have been promising finishing 14th two years ago then 5th last year. The interesting thing here is that his iron play peaked last week ranking 9th in the field at Memorial Park and a better week on the greens could have gotten him into serious contention there.
His putter has always been a strength of his game throughout his career and it's the club that is letting him down the most so far this season. He can afford a middling week with the putter here and still contend so I'm quite keen on his chances.
Luke Clanton at 400/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I can't help but have as a stab at Luke Clanton this week at huge odds. Clanton has two runner up finishes in a short PGA Tour career to date but having gone off the boil lately has drifted to a really big price.
5th in the Puerto Rico Open at the start of the month was a big positive but his game went a little off the rails again at Copperhead.
He drove the ball well that week but the rest wasn't good at all. Last week he made the cut in Houston and he ranked 16th in the field for strokes gained approach. Now he will need to do a lot more to contend here but his putter has been a big weakness this year so far and he can somewhat get away with that here at the Oaks.
Still a big talent and at these prices following a good week with the irons just has to be backed.
