Niall Lyons previews the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills and picks out four betting angles.
Bud Cauley landed an emotional victory in Canada at the weekend and readers of this column were equally as ecstatic as he kicked clear during Sunday's back 9 at Osprey Valley. Even a long awaited victory like Cauley's isn't enough to shake a hangover from one of the better viewing years in golf in 2025. This year has cut different. McIlroy's win at the Masters was done so by not playing anywhere near his best and none of us could ever have imagined over two years ago a McIlroy Masters victory passing by with as little pomp or indeed I may say even excitement. A bunched leaderboard at the PGA Championship wasn't enough to secure a riveting viewing experience on the final day with Aaron Rai coming out on top in a somewhat anti climactic finish at Aronimink. Maybe, just maybe we will get a US Open to kick the game of golf back into gear in what is the dullest period I can remember for a long time.
Shinnecock Hills is exactly the venue we need right now for this event and it should provide us with a cracker. The last four times this fine venue has hosted this event only one winner has managed a score better than one under par. The jury is out whether we'll see a better score this time around though as they have widened the fairways significantly for this visit compared to 2018.
What we have seen play out in recent years with widening landing areas is that this narrows the gap between the best and the worst drivers and reduces the value of the bomb and gauge tactics. I'm all for that in general but I'm unsure if Shinnecock needed wider fairways as the punishment for missing them was so high. What was surprising about 2018 was that although accuracy did matter, fairways were generally easy enough to find and importantly previous accuracy stats were not a pointer as to who would play well that week.
Koepka was ranked 189th in the field in the previous 18 months in driving accuracy. In fact five of the top 6 were ranked outside the top 100 in accuracy stats in the lead into the 2018 renewal. With fairways even easier to hit this time I believe what you do off the tee will not have a significant outcome on the tournament leaderboard.
Instead it will be from the second shot onwards, and in particular what you do on and around the greens. With wind set to play a fair part in proceedings more greens than usual will be missed here and with the huge undulations around the greens the most severe part of this test will come after your approach shot. Elite tee to green experts with wizardry particularly around the greens need only apply here at Shinnecock.
Niall Lyons US Open 2026 Tips
| Player | Bet | Odds | Stake | Terms | Bookmaker | Bet Here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | Each-way | 18/1 | 2pts E/W | 1/5 odds, 8 places (already advised 1pt EW 22/1 in Jan) | Betfred | Click Here |
| Jon Rahm | Win only | 16/1 | 5pts WIN | Exchanges (17.5) | AK Bets | Click Here |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Each-way | 22/1 | 3pts E/W | 1/5 odds, 8 places | Betfred | Click Here |
| Cameron Smith | Each-way | 100/1 | 1pt E/W | 1/5 odds, 7 places | BetMGM / VirginBet / Spreadex / SportingIndex | Click Here |
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Tommy Fleetwood - 18/1 (8 Places)
One who must be backed and who has been a lock for me for weeks is Tommy Fleetwood.
I have tipped him here https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/golf/20260108-niall-lyons-2026-antepost-golf-major-tips-masters-uspga-open-open-champ in my antepost preview in January but I'm looking to add a few points each way to that total.
This is the perfect Tommy Fleetwood golf course and the next month in my opinion holds his best two chances to win a Major in his career to date. Shinnecock and Birkdale are set up perfect for Tommy's game and I expect him to give a bold account in both.
A final round of 63 here in 2018 saw him come up one shot shy and I can't help but feel his last few years have been leading up to a return to Shinnecock where he must have a huge chance.
He hasn't had his best year with the irons currently ranking 44th on tour in approach play but ranking 9th in that department in Canada last week is a fine warm up. More importantly he is 5th in strokes gained around the green on tour this season and 5th in Scrambling.
This will more than likely be the deciding factor here this week and given he has had three top 5 finishes in US Opens he has to be one of the top handful who are most equipped to deal with this test.
If he doesn't win one of the next two Majors I'd worry about his chances to land one as the timing for these next two venues couldn't be more perfectly aligned for someone who has grafted his way to the top. It's Tommy time in New York.
2pts each-way T.Fleetwood 18/1 (1/5 8) Betfred already advised 1pt ew 22/1 in January
Jon Rahm - 16/1 (Win Only)
I really considered going with Scottie Scheffler and Fleetwood as my two only bets this week but there's just too many worries about Scheffler's game to weigh in at single figures despite me being madly tempted by the 13/2 on offer.
Scheffler is still playing really well, just maybe not up to his best. Shinnecock is a great venue for him as the tougher the assignment the more he can separate himself from the field.
His game around the green is immaculate but the putter is a big concern. His demeanour and frustration lately is another worry and when betting at these odds you just don't want many negatives.
There are probably one or two too many to take the plunge, but I was close, very close.
I feel this will go the way of an elite golfer who has shown some special form of late. Doubts surround the top two in the market whilst Young has tapered off slightly.
Aberg doesn't convince me he is on the cusp of winning a Major whilst Dechambeau is once again an easy pass.
It is difficult to ignore the chances of Jon Rahm and he will be my biggest win only bet to land his second US Open.
The Spaniard was a no nearer 2nd place in the PGA Championship last month and that looks the perfect springboard to go and land another Major.
I haven't been entirely convinced he was ready to win one as the move to LIV certainly hasn't helped his record in Major Championships.
It is the condition of his approach game that is eye catching and he should be able to make plenty of gains in that department here at Shinnecock.
I shudder a little in my own analysis simply because pins can be tucked away at this golf course and I don't think approach play will be the deciding factor, but in that department alone he is passing the test with flying colours.
He had a superb week with the irons in Virigina the week before the PGA Championship then last time out at Valderrama he produced an equally great week on approach when finishing runner up to Tyrrell Hatton.
Koepka won here and a large part of it was down to his aggressive putting on slippery greens and I believe Rahm is in the same mould to give his short putts a good confident stroke.
Truth be told around 16/1 win only he looks a very decent proposition and must have every chance of being in the final few groups come Sunday evening.
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Matt Fitzpatrick - 22/1 (8 Places)
Aaron Rai was 5th at a low grade Myrtle Beach event before going on to win the PGA Championship the following week and often a performance like that goes overlooked heading into a Major.
It's not the only time in recent years that this happened and I really like the way Matt Fitzpatrick has prepared and he's my third and final bet into anyone less than triple figures.
Fitzpatrick ranked 6th tee to green last week in Canada when finishing runner up to Bud Cauley and crucially seen an upturn with the putter.
His game around the green has been excellent all season ranking 6th in strokes gained around the green and 18th in scrambling.
He ranks 4th in strokes gained approach this season and should face little or no problems off the tee.
So where is the negative? It's maybe with the putter which is a little inconsistent. However, he ranked 13th in that department last week at Osprey Valley and I'm of the opinion he is one of the most aggressive putters in the field which means he can cope with the short ones on the fast greens.
Koepka rammed in many putts the week he won in 2018 and it takes a strong character with this club to stand up to that pressure.
It's the reason I have leaned away from Scheffler and it's possibly the only worry I have with Fleetwood also.
I don't have the same concerns with Fitzpatrick and I'm getting more and more bullish about his chances the closer the tournament comes.
US OpenSee All Odds
Cameron Smith - 100/1 (7 Places)
Finally I'll include Cameron Smith at 100/1 but anything with the extra places from around 80s upwards could be worth taking.
Neither length nor accuracy off the tee should decide this tournament and that's where he really struggles.
He has lost length with the driver since his peak a few years ago but he has become even more wild since.
He should welcome the wider fairways here at Shinnecock which were easier than PGA Tour standard to hit even back in 2018.
Lately he has stepped it up with a top 5 at Valderrama which does look like a decent prep run for Shinnecock.
He ranked 3rd in strokes gained approach in the PGA last month on route to his first Major top 10 since the Masters in 2024.
His short game is as good as ever and he really should benefit from the wide fairways here.
He took advantage of that when winning the Open at St Andrews back in 2022 and this course setup is probably the best we've seen for him since.
Its doubtful whether he is ready to win another Major, but we're getting a premium on price here and there are plenty of positives.
1pt each-way C.Smith 100/1 (1/5 7) Bet MGM, VirginBet, Spreadex, SportingIndex
