Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips for the 2026 Open Championship

It's the middle of July and once again we criminally arrive at the end of the Major season. Birkdale is the venue, one of the more straightforward Open tests on the rota and a golf course that doesn't need to be tricked up in the slightest.

It is somewhat all in front of you at Birkdale and personally I've always thought of it as a golf course that demands precision off the tee to attack the right parts of the greens.

Spieth talked about that in 2017 that strategy off the tee was high up his agenda and missing it in the right places being an important part of the jigsaw. That jigsaw was of course ripped up during one particular hole of a manic final round there which was undoubtedly one of the best Major Sundays in the modern era.

Recent form must not be ignored it seems with this event and Open credentials don't appear to be a necessity, especially in favourable conditions. 

Scottie Scheffler & The Top Of The Market?

Scottie Scheffler arrives here following his first missed cut since Moses was on the breast and 13/2 is about the mark he went off last year at Portrush. Despite some unknowns with links golf I was left regretting letting him go unbacked when he was clearly at the peak of his powers. I swore I'd never let a similar price go unbacked again.

Here we are though, letting an even bigger price pass us by this time around. He is clearly not near the level he was at this time last year and the question remaining is whether he can win one of these without being at his best.

I don't think we can say his other Major victories were during a 'lean' spell such as this so if he is to draw Tiger comparisons even further then he may just need to win one when he is statistically down a level from last year. 

I think Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick can win an Open Championship at 14/1 and 16/1 respectively without me getting too anxious about not being on.

I've liked Fleetwood for this for a long time, not just because it's his home course, but it's the perfect setup for his game. Both these two have frailties with the putter though and I've had my fill of punting elite golfers who have let me down on the greens this year. 

The Open Championship Tips

Collin Morikawa at 28/1 (Eight Places)

One former Open champion who I am happy to risk once again is Collin Morikawa. This is probably the best start to a Summer in the UK since that 2021 heatwave which saw Morikawa win at St Georges in blistering heat.

The same will apply this week in Southport and we look to have calm and hot conditions throughout. It was an American 1-2 that year and throughout a mostly calm week and in Portrush last year the Americans landed a 1-2-3 on the leaderboard.

When conditions do not get rough in these parts the homegrown players who grew up on these types of tests find it much more difficult to set themselves apart from the field. Morikawa would have been the first man on my list for the Masters in April only for his back injury in the weeks leading into the first Major of 2026.

He still managed a top ten there and two more top 5 finishes have followed. The most recent of those was at the Travelers where he was the 2nd best iron player in the field. A top 20 at the US Open was another fair effort and crucially Morikawa is putting extremely well.

He lies 78th on tour in strokes gained putting this season up from 156 the previous year. He has gained strokes on the field with the putter in eight of his last ten events.

Short game will be important this week although I'm hoping his iron play which can set himself apart from the field on any given week really becomes an asset here at Birkdale. His placement and strategy from tee to green should be enough to give him a good chance of competing here and another good week with the putter could see him repeat his heroics from 2021. 

2.5pts each-way C.Morikawa  28/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Cameron Young is tempting at 33/1 having largely been seen as the third best player in the world just a few months ago. He may have regressed a little since then but the price certainly catches the eye. His biggest asset is his driver though and that's probably curtailed enough by Birkdale to bump him off the staking plan.

Aberg is another in the same price bracket who could be blindly backed at 28/1 in Majors and you'll probably be ahead. Again though, his weapon off the tee isn't quite as potent around this layout. Chris Gotterup is another who makes a lot of his gains with the driver who despite being in great form may not be suited by the course. 

Viktor Hovland at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Justin Thomas will tempt many at a nice price this week and he nearly made my staking plan but my second slot goes the way of Viktor Hovland. Viktor now looks to have everything back on track although there is no doubt his career could go either way from here. Make the leap to a Major champion and one of the elite or continue to knock of a win every season or two at most.

That has been his tally the last couple of years having tinkered plenty with his swing. Things have been much better of late though with a 3rd place coming in Canada before a really impressive victory at the Travelers where he overcame Scottie Scheffler in a playoff. That win will give him huge confidence and he looked to have perfect preparation for this with a top 15 finish last week in Scotland.

He ranked 3rd from tee to green there at the Renaissance and even 8th around the green is a solid return.

61st of  71 with the putter was the club that held him back and that could be the difference this week also. I expect him to enjoy the strategic test around Birkdale and although there is an emphasis on short game around here he has fared ok in that department of late.

He lands with winning form in the last couple of weeks and with many of the world's best not quite at the top of their game I rate that as the strongest form line you can have this week.

2.5pts each-way V.Hovland  33/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Tyrrell Hatton at 33/1 (Eight Places)

If there is to be someone win this with a lot of credentials for an Open Championship then the one who looks a palatable price is Tyrrell Hatton.

Conditions won't be an issue here and instead Hatton can put his links pedigree to the fore and contend once again. 4-16-3-CUT-7 read his last five attempts at the Majors and he is clearly becoming a big player in these events.

Last years US Open was his closest to date as he had a huge chance of winning that stood on the 71st tee. A slice of bad fortune in the bunker as well as a career moment from JJ Spaun meant his wait for the big one continued.

He is lightly enough raced but recently out fought Jon Rahm at Valderrama then only six finished ahead of him at Shinnecock Hills.

A top 20 in Scotland last week looks like ideal preparation and at more than double the price of Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick this three time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links looks like a much more sensible play.

2pts each-way T.Hatton  33/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Russell Henley at 40/1 (Eight Places)

I'd have preferred if Russell Henley had prepared with a warm up in Scotland last week but he arrives here off a 12th placed finish at TPC River Highlands and with a victory at Colonial just over a month ago.

Winning form is indeed a trait with Open winners down the last decade or so and having a taste of being in contention during the back 9 of a Major which he did at Augusta in April is a big positive also.

He has began to find his way in this event in the last couple of years finishing 5th at Troon then 10th at Portrush. That means he has been inside the top 10 after 5 of his last 8 Open rounds. He sat 10th at halfway here at Birkdale in 2017 only to be derailed by a poor third round. Birkdale is a really good fit for Henley with his precision from the tee being a fair advantage.

He is capable of big spiking weeks with his iron play and it's easy to forget he is currently ranked the 5th best golfer in the world.

There are 15 golfers priced shorter than him this week though and given the calm conditions that should play out here this week I'm keen to get him on board. 

1.5pts each-way R.Henley  40/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Tom Kim at 50/1 (Eight Places)

Having tipped Tom Kim at 100/1 in Canada last month it was a little difficult to see him overcome the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick last week in Scotland. It has been coming though and following his 3rd placed finish at Shinnecock Hills he is simply one of the form players in the field.

I can't quite believe I am backing him to win an Open but here we are. Scottish Open form has been a good sign for this event in recent years although I wouldn't necessarily say winning it is ideal. Nevertheless Tom Kim runs well on confidence and he will really fancy his chances here of getting into contention once again.

He is hitting the sweet spot it seems now playing his 5th Open championship which marries well with previous winners of this.

He finished a distant runner up to Brian Harman at Royal Liverpool in 2023 when severely hampered by a bandaged ankle.

In terms of Open venues Birkdale is the one that probably suits him the best as it doesn't require length off the tee and a burnt out golf course means there will be a lot of iron play off the tees.

I can easily see him ride the momentum from Scotland last week to a high finish here and it just depends on whether he has the bottle to go through with a victory. 

1.25pts each-way T.Kim  50/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Francesco Molinari at 500/1 (Eight Places)

I'm happy to have a small punt on Francesco Molinari at 500/1.

The 2018 Open Champion finished 4th in the Dubai Desert in January in a decent field then 6th in the Indian Open. Those flashes make him interesting at big prices in DPWT events but his top 20 in Scotland last week suggests he may be worth a pop here and land a surprise second Open.

He ranked 4th in the field last week in strokes gained approach and but for a miserable short game he could have finished much nearer the top of the leaderboard. Had that happened I don't think we'd see anywhere near the 500/1 on offer and it looks like a no brainer small wager.

0.5pt each-way F.Molinari  500/1  (1/5 8) Bet365