Four Open Championship betting tips featuring a 100/1 past Open Championship winner.
Royal Birkdale returns to the Open rota for the 11th time as host of the 154th Open Championship, bringing golf's oldest major back to one of its fairest yet most demanding links tests. While its generous-looking fairways and clearly defined driving corridors can appear forgiving, Birkdale is a course that relentlessly rewards precision over power. Strategic bunkering, punishing rough, towering dunes and ever-changing coastal winds place a premium on intelligent course management, with players often forced to club down from the tee to find the correct positions rather than simply overpower the layout.
At 7,223 yards and playing to a par of 70, the scorecard is deceptively tough. With only two par 5s, multiple 500-yard par 4s and a collection of demanding par 3s stretching from 151 to 241 yards, approach play becomes the defining skill. Royal Birkdale has long been regarded as one of the Open rota's finest second-shot examinations, with elevated greens, narrow entrances, revetted bunkers and tightly mown run-offs placing a huge emphasis on elite iron play, particularly from 150-200+ yards. Missing in the wrong spots often leads to awkward recoveries, making a sharp short game and imaginative links creativity equally valuable.
Elite approach players, particularly those excelling with their long irons, should be high on the shortlist, while accuracy and smart decision-making off the tee outweigh raw distance. Add in strong scrambling, reliable putting on firm fescue greens and proven comfort in windy conditions, and you'll have the attributes that have consistently defined Royal Birkdale champions throughout its history.
Open Championship 2026 Tips
Tom Kim 1pt EW at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Tom Kim's form, particularly his third-place finish at the US Open, already made him an attractive prospect here, but seeing off the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre to win by two strokes on a links course last week makes him a must-back this week.
Scottish Open form is a strong indicator of who might perform well at The Open Championship, with the last four Open winners having finished 10th, 12th, 15th and eighth in the Scottish Open beforehand. Weirdly enough, it might have been preferable had he not arrived off the back of a victory, but Kim is a momentum player and, hopefully, he didn't leave too much out there in Scotland and instead uses that win as a springboard.
Beyond last week's performance, Kim ticks plenty of boxes. On a course where approach play is perhaps the most predictive statistic of them all, it is encouraging to see him ranking among the best in the field in that department. He has ranked second, seventh and 17th for approach play in his last three tournaments and has gained strokes on approach in each of his last eight appearances. He is hitting his long irons superbly and, if his tee-to-green game remains at the same level, he should put in another strong showing.
This will be his fifth Open Championship appearance, with his tied-second finish at Royal Portrush in 2023 providing clear evidence that he can handle the unique examination that links golf presents.
JJ Spaun at 75/1 1pt EW (Eight Places)
Birkdale's fairways might look inviting when standing on the tee, running through broad valleys between towering dunes and boasting generous, flat landing zones, but this is a far more sophisticated test than it first appears. Strategically placed bunkers are positioned to punish anyone attempting to overpower the course, while big misses can leave players battling thick fescue, tangled marram grass, gorse, steep dune faces and the occasional out-of-bounds. From there, the challenge becomes a stern examination of iron play, with numerous long par 4s, varied par 3s and well-protected greens demanding exceptional distance control and trajectory.
Royal Birkdale rewards intelligent course management and elite ball striking, making JJ Spaun an ideal fit for the challenge.
He is one of the best players in the game at avoiding trouble, and his performances regularly peak on courses where precision off the tee is essential:
- The Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village) – T12 (2026), 1st (2025)
- The Players Championship (TPC Sawgrass) – T22 (2026)
- Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands) – T7 (2026)
- FedEx St. Jude Championship (TPC Southwind) – 2nd (2025)
Spaun is also one of the most accurate drivers on Tour, ranking 23rd for average distance from the edge of the fairway over the last six months.
The 2025 U.S. Open champion's ball striking has been exceptional this season, ranking 10th in this field over the last six months. On a course that demands control from tee to green, he ranks 13th in this field over the same period, improving to seventh when isolating performances on courses with a high rough penalty and severe missed fairway penalty over the last 12 months.
His short game and putting tend to fluctuate, and his work around the greens over his last three starts is a slight concern. However, with a ball-striking profile so well suited to Royal Birkdale's demands, he is difficult to overlook this week.
Brian Harman at 100/1 1pt EW (Seven Places)
At an attractive price, the 2023 Open champion Brian Harman appeals this week. His Open Championship record of 19-6-1-60-10 over his last five appearances is compelling evidence that he thrives in the unique demands of links golf, while his recent performances provide further encouragement.
Harman has been quietly consistent this season, recording five top-25 finishes while missing just three cuts. Two of those top-25s have come in his last five starts, with an 11th-place finish at The Players Championship standing as his best result of the year.
His accuracy off the tee (ranking sixth in this field for average distance from the edge of the fairway over the last six months) and reliable short game (top 50 around the green) have been trademarks of his season, while his iron play appears to be peaking at exactly the right time. Over his last five tournaments, he ranks 14th in this field for approach play. He ranked seventh for approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge, fourth at the Travelers Championship and followed that with another encouraging display at last week's Scottish Open, where he finished tied 36th while ranking 25th for approach.
Three of his four best approach performances this season have come in his last five starts, suggesting his ball striking is trending in the right direction. He possesses the patient, strategic style needed to avoid trouble and plot his way around Royal Birkdale, and if he continues to find fairways and greens, he could easily work his way into contention by Sunday.
His recent form of 22-CUT-32-25-36 may not immediately scream major champion, but that's not necessarily a concern. He arrived at the 2025 Open Championship with form figures of CUT-59-8-50 before producing a tied-10th finish at Royal Portrush, showing he doesn't need to be arriving in red-hot form to contend in this championship.
Viktor Hovland at 33/1 1.5pts EW (Eight Places)
Viktor Hovland appears to be peaking at exactly the right time, arriving at Royal Birkdale on the back of a victory at the Travelers Championship, where he defeated Scottie Scheffler in a playoff, before following it up with a tied-13th finish at the Scottish Open.
The trends point in his favour, with nine of the last 11 Open champions having already won earlier in the season, while each of the last four winners recorded a top-15 finish at the Scottish Open the week before.
This will be Hovland's sixth Open Championship appearance, and he has already demonstrated his ability to contend in this major with finishes of tied 13th, tied fourth and tied 12th.
Statistically, there is very little not to like about his profile this week. His tee-to-green game is firing on all cylinders, ranking 16th in this field over the last six months, while he has finished inside the top 11 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in three of his last four starts. His approach play has also been excellent, ranking 12th in this field over the last six months.
Royal Birkdale places a premium on strategy as much as power, and Hovland has shown he can adapt. When hitting less than driver, he ranks 12th over the last 12 months for average distance from the edge of the fairway, highlighting his ability to keep the ball in position and avoid the trouble that defines this course.
If the putter cooperates, Hovland has all the tools to be firmly in the mix on Sunday.
