FedEx St. Jude Championship first round leader tips featuring two big priced chances.
Fedex St Jude Championship FRLSee All Odds
Tom Kim at 40/1 (Five Places) - 1pt ew
Tom Kim is playing some fantastic golf at the moment and, having secured his first victory in three years at the Genesis Scottish Open four starts ago, he showed last week at the Wyndham Championship that the desire to win remains very much intact.
A third-round 63, the joint-second lowest score of the day, propelled him firmly into contention heading into Sunday before a disappointing final round saw him slip back to a tied-fifth finish. Even so, a top-eight putting performance combined with another excellent week with the irons, where he ranked 13th for approach play, means he arrives this week as one of the hottest players in the field.
Kim leads this field in approach statistics and demonstrated again at Sedgefield that he can keep the ball in play when required, ranking 10th for driving accuracy. That follows a 17th-place ranking for driving accuracy at the 3M Open and sixth at the John Deere Classic, two events where finding fairways is particularly important. If he putts anything like he did last week, there is every reason to believe he can post a very low score here.
His course form reads 13-24-50, with a notable second-round 64 in 2024 and a first-round 64 in 2023, the second-lowest score of the opening day, both highlighting his ability to go low at this venue.
He has also recorded two first-round leader victories in his last eight starts, and after opening last week's Wyndham Championship with a 65 to sit 11th, the signs point strongly towards another fast start this week.
Gary Woodland at 80/1 (Five Places) - 1pt ew
Gary Woodland is enjoying one of his strongest seasons for some time, highlighted by a victory at the Texas Houston Open, five top-10 finishes and seven top-20 finishes.
A solid tied-10th finish at the 3M Open last time out began in familiar fashion, with Woodland opening with a 64 to sit tied second after round one. Fast starts have become a recurring theme this season, and that was his seventh top-10 first-round position in his last 13 tournaments. Over the last six months, he ranks eighth in this field for first-round performance.
He has the length off the tee to attack Southwind's demanding par 4s, challenge the corners of its doglegs and shorten holes that many players still approach conservatively. Just as importantly, he has been accurate enough to avoid the punishing rough, ranking 20th in this field for average distance from the edge of the fairway over the last six months. When isolating off-the-tee performance to courses with severe rough penalties and significant missed-fairway penalties, the type of test presented by TPC Southwind, Woodland actually ranks first in this field for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
His approach play has been a little inconsistent recently, with disappointing performances at The Open Championship and the Memorial Tournament, but the upside remains obvious. Among this field, he has produced the ninth-highest percentage of rounds gaining at least two strokes on approach over the last six months, showing that while the week-to-week results can fluctuate, he is still capable of elite iron-play bursts that can separate him from the field.
The course history is not particularly inspiring, with a best finish of tied 18th dating back to 2013, but he has not played TPC Southwind in four years, so it is difficult to place too much weight on those older results. Given the level of his current form, I am more inclined to focus on the player he is now rather than the one who last teed it up here several seasons ago.
Eric Cole at 70/1 (Fives Places) - 1pt ew
Eric Cole has not quite managed to put four rounds together since the Memorial Tournament in early June, with a tied-29th finish at last week's Wyndham Championship representing his best result in that span. Inconsistent iron play has been a major factor behind that run.
However, there were encouraging signs at Sedgefield that he may be rediscovering something with his approach game. He ranked 27th in the field for approach play, with a particularly impressive +4.05 strokes gained on approach in Round 1 driving much of that performance.
That opening round produced a superb 63, the third-lowest score of the day, and left him fourth after the first round. Fast starts are nothing new for Cole either, having recorded two first-round leader finishes in his last seven starts, at the Travelers Championship and the RBC Heritage.
Even during this recent stretch of poor overall iron form, he has still shown flashes of elite approach play in individual rounds:
- 2nd in Round 1 at the Wyndham Championship
- 17th in Round 2 at The Open Championship
- 21st in Round 2 at the John Deere Classic
- 1st in Round 4 at the John Deere Classic
- 2nd in Round 1 at the Travelers Championship
- 9th in Round 2 at the Travelers Championship
Those spikes suggest the ceiling remains very high and we only need him to perform for one round.
His course record is also quietly encouraging. He finished T31 here in 2023 and improved to T18 in 2024, while that 2023 appearance began with a top-five position after the opening round.
