BMW Championship First Round Leader Tips: FRL Bets from 40/1 to 50/1

Gary Woodland at 50/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW

Gary Woodland kicked off last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship with yet another fast start, opening with a four-under 66 to sit just one shot off the lead. Fast starts have become a recurring theme this season, with that performance marking his eighth top-10 position after round one in his last 14 tournaments.

He now arrives at a course where he was the first-round leader the last time it hosted a PGA Tour event, the 2018 PGA Championship, an event he went on to finish tied sixth in.

That 2018 leaderboard points towards a very specific type of player profile. Brooks Koepka won, while Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, Justin Thomas and Thomas Pieters all finished inside the top 10, a group heavily weighted towards powerful, elite ball-strikers.

Eight years on, Woodland still fits that mould. He ranks as the fifth-longest hitter in this field and, although his iron play has been inconsistent at times, the upside remains clear when everything clicks. Among this field, he has produced the 12th-highest percentage of rounds gaining two or more strokes on approach over the last six months (16.1%).

For a first-round leader bet, we only need it to come together for 18 holes, and Woodland has shown repeatedly this season that he has the ability to make fast starts.

Kurt Kitayama at 40/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW

There is a lot to like about Kurt Kitayama this week. If the profile we are looking for is someone who excels in total driving (combining driving distance and accuracy off the tee), alongside elite approach play and strong current form, Kitayama ticks plenty of boxes.

He arrives off the back of a tied-12th finish last week, producing yet another ball-striking clinic that has become a hallmark of his season. He ranks ninth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last six months and 16th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over the same period. He ranks 11th in the field for driving distance, while his long irons are firing too, ranking eighth for proximity from 175-200 yards and fourth from 200+ yards. He has the ideal profile to thrive here at Bellerive.

This was on full display when he finished tied for the lead after the opening round last week, gaining 3.11 strokes on approach, the best mark in the field for that round.

That was his second strong first-round performance in his last four starts, with a sixth-place first round finish at the Genesis Scottish Open further evidence that he is capable of starting quickly. If the ball striking remains at this level and he brings his current form, Kitayama looks like an appealing option in the first-round leader market and we might even see him competing on Sunday.

Michael Thorbjornsen at 40/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW

Michael Thorbjornsen kicked off last week tied for the lead alongside Kitayama and several others and, although it looked like the start of something special, illness took over and he eventually slipped down the leaderboard to finish tied 42nd. He will be keen to put that right this week, now hopefully feeling better.

Nevertheless, he did well to make the top 50 and advance to the BMW Championship, where the course looks tailor-made for the 24-year-old bomber to overpower. He ranks 11th in this field for driving distance and arrives with two top-10 finishes in his last four starts.

We saw what he is capable of when he picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Rocket Classic two starts ago, firing a seven-under 63, the lowest score of the final round, to jump from tied seventh into top spot on Sunday. And that was not the only impressive round he has produced recently. In his last seven starts:

• Lowest score in Round 1 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week
• One shot off the lead after Round 1 at the Genesis Invitational, and one shot off the lowest score in Round 3
• Second-lowest score in Round 2 of the Rocket Classic and the lowest in Round 4
• Second-lowest score in Round 2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge

Over the last six months, he has the seventh-highest percentage of rounds among players in this field gaining four or more strokes total (18.5%) and the 13th-highest percentage of rounds gaining five or more strokes total.

With a Presidents Cup captain's pick still very much on the table, he has plenty to prove this week too.