We head to Johannesburg for the first European Tour event of the year.
BMW South Africa Open
The European Tour comes back to our screens this week and another early season jaunt to South Africa. Glendower has hosted this event for the previous four years and has always gathered a reasonable field. This year is no different with the two South Africans Grace and Schwartzel drawing in the crowds. Last year McIlroy turned up only to be outdone by Graeme Storm in a playoff. Jordan Smith was tucked in a further shot behind in what was a sign of things to come form the Englishman last term. In recent years the rough here is been very thick and it takes an accurate long game to contend. Trees and water also play their part on this track which is certainly no pushover despite scores of mid to high teens under par usually being the winning total.
Branden Grace heads the field following his victory at the back end of last year in the Nedbank. He was very impressive that week and always looked like the winner during those final 18 holes. He has very solid form in his homeland and you really couldn't rule him out of another victory here but the bookies price is about spot on and I don't see an awful lot of mileage in the 6/1. He was 4/1 when he turned up here a few years ago and failed to oblige with a very solid run of figures heading into the event. I wouldn't put anyone madly off supporting him, but I think I'll see better 6/1 pokes throughout the year than this.
Europeans have held a decent record in this event the past few years and my money is on James Morrison (best price 35-1) to produce another fine display in this part of the world. His last outing was at Joburg where he tied for 6th and previous to that he posted a top ten in Hong Kong so he has certainly started off the 2018 season in fine form. Not out of the top 25 here in 3 outings and with top tens at the Tshwane and Joburg Opens James has a penchant for playing around these parts. He isn't one to get too heavily involved with as he puts decent shifts in regularly with little reward. Nevertheless he has the ability to win and I think his price is juicy enough to have a wager.
Haydn Porteous (best price 50-1) has a mixed record around here but I'm prepared to take the chance on him having certainly become a lot more of an accomplished golfer in the past twelve months. He was very impressive in winning last years Czech Masters and finally we saw his talent come to fruition. He has endured ups and downs in his career so far but there is no doubting that he has the talent to go onto bigger and better things on this tour. He finished a very respectable 12th in the Nedbank and finished just outside the top 20 in Dubai. He has missed his last two cuts at this venue which is a worry but as I said, he has suffered from inconsistency. Last year was a lot better and a 3rd placed finish here in the BMG Sunshine event in 2014 shows that he is capable on this course if playing well. You will surely be out for a duck backing this lad on plenty of occasions but in his homeland and after a win last year I think he is worth a speculative play to outplay his odds.
There is no doubt that Thomas Detry is still learning his trade on the tour but he hasn't done all that bad so far. Highlight of last year was the second placed finish in the prestigious BMW International where he very nearly came up with the goods to take his first victory. That could well come this year and with some similarities between this course and Munich I think the bookies are taking somewhat of a chance chalking him up 66s. He hasn't done an awful lot lately to be a ton shorter in the market but with the ability he has under his spikes surely it is worth taking a chance on him when you have to go back 5 or 6 weeks to find anybody's last event. Just what kind of form plenty will come with is hard to estimate therefore a young kid like this could spring from the pack. He finished 10th in Hong Kong second to last time out so he certainly can't be ruled out of posting another solid performance.
Of the others, Thomas Aiken shoots good scores around here and after a decent showing in Hong Kong for the first two days couldn't be a forlorn hope. It will be interesting to see if we see a different Marcus Kinhult on tour this year after a successful year on the Challenge circuit.
