Our golf expert has previewed this week's European Tour event, the Andalucia Masters.
Andalucia Masters - Winner
Valderrama divides opinion on whether or not it is a well designed masterpiece, or indeed a tricked up crazy golf course that demands a fair amount of luck to get around. I'd air towards the former as I really enjoy the layout and the challenges it presents. Maybe from a betting perspective it is an exciting week as it is a course we know rewards accurate sorts from tee to green and those with a silky short game to protect their score whenever they inevitably miss the targets here. I've swerved the European events in the last month largely due to unexciting betting heats and unfamiliar courses, but the Andalucia Masters represents an opportunity for us to get our teeth into some decent bets.
Rasmus heads the betting and what a player he is. I've made no secret of how good I think he is and I'm a little annoyed not to have capitalised upon his latest surge of form. The sky is really the limit for this lad who looks the best European golfer for many, many years. Valderrama presents enough problems for me not to get involved at 12/1 although I think he could easily content despite the lack of experience on the track. He could win again make no mistake, but at the price I'm happy to let him do so.
The 20/1 about Joost Luiten is palatable this week given he lined up the same price last year with Fitzpatrick, Garcia and Rahm ahead of him in the betting. You'd be forgiven for thinking he must have had decent form in the run in to the 2019 renewal, but he arrived there off the back of a missed cut and two efforts outside the top 60. This time around we see similar form, doing nothing special. 51st in the PGA is respectable enough given around 98% of this field would probably be odds against to make the cut in that major. Last year he posted his fourth top 20 on the trot here despite that sketchy form in the lead in. His price reads value off the back of the same price in 2019 but I'd suggest the 20/1 this time is about right, but I wouldn't have many shorter than him in the market. I'd make it co-favs of about 4 or 5 with Luiten being one of them. For that reason I'm happy to take the risk given his credentials around here.
2.5pts each-way J.Luiten 20/1 (1/5 7)
Thorbjorn Olesen could be on the verge of making some positive headlines after a spell on the sidelines due to a silly incident on a flight over a year ago. The signs were good last week with a top 20 posted in the UK Championship. The Dane would have been right towards the top of the market here in his pomp, but there is little to suggest he is a million miles away from that form. We know how good of a putter he can be on his day and should he get near the lead I'd be confident of a few dropping at the right times. He has never been one to rely on hitting fairways but it's worth noting he ranked 8th off the tee last week. He's as good as a handful at the top of the market on his day, and I'm prepared to take the chance now before we see his prices get malnourished.
1.5pts each-way T.Olesen 60/1 (1/5 6)
With the missed cut last week Langasque can be forgiven a slight hangover from his Welsh win but it will be back to business this week for the Frenchman and 50/1 looks tempting enough. With his maiden victory in the bag the chances of another soon after are surely heightened. The similarity between his swing and his Dubuisson's is canny and I wouldn't be surprised if his early career takes a similarly successful path. Belief is a huge club to have in the bag and I expect him to fulfil the promise many had talked about a couple of years ago. Too much weight has been put on last weeks missed cut in my opinion and I'm hopeful of a bounce back.
1.25pts each-way R.Langasque 50/1 (1/5 7)
With Challenge Tour wins in 2018 and 2019 to his name, Calum Hill is yet winless in 2020 but it could all be about to change. The Scot has taken to the big tour relatively calmly and the two back to back top tens recently are a sign he is beginning to reach his early potential on the tour. Activity around the greens is crucial here and he finished 26th in that category last week. If he can hole a few more putts to add to his tee to green game last week (4th in field) then he could be a big runner. 66s looks a shade too big.
1pt each-way C.Hill 66/1 (1/5 7)
Wiesberger looks the pick of the front runners and given his shirt game figures last week could be a massive runner if he reproduces those. Paul Waring is another interesting candidate given he returned to action in fine fashion. Campillo is another lively prospect who could win on home soil without the pressure of the fans. Adrian Otaegui rates better value to my eyes given his recent form. He finished 12th here back in 2017 and arrives off the back of some solid efforts including a runner up to runaway winner Andy Sullivan a few weeks back. He has two small field tour wins to his name as well as a host of close finishes in full field events. The Spaniards could excel this week without the expectation from the home fans and Otaegui rates the best value of that crop.
1pt each-way A.Otaegui 60/1 (1/5 6)
