Niall Lyons has looked at various Antepost Masters markets and offered up some tasty side bets.
There are countless markets to pour over this week and it is my strategy week to week to try and pay for any potential poor run in outright bets with some winners in the side markets. Hopefully this week we can sift through the endless markets to find some decent selections to keep us interested.
Where better to start than the first round leader market. Down the years plenty will have guessed the best side of the draw and did plenty of research to gain an advantage on the bookmakers but needless to say more often than not it doesn't go in your favour. Over recent years the first round leader has come from the later starters and that looks even more likely to happen again this year. Conditions are set to be coldest on Thursday morning and nothing hinders scores more around Augusta than cold conditions. The ball won't fly as far and generally it just isn't a comfortable environment to play in. It is set to get a fair deal warmer in the afternoon so I'd expect the round leader to come from that group. There is rain due to on Wednesday which means the course will be softer for earlier starters which may give them a slight advantage over those to tee off later as the course becomes firmer. Regardless, I think the colder conditions are the worst of it and I'll look to those later in the day.
I have two plays in this market both out after 4.30pm tomorrow. First up is TONY FINAU (best price 80/1). A debutant here at Augusta many will try and put you off backing these guys but records are there to be broken and it is only a matter of time before a first timer slips on the green jacket. I was tempted by Finau in the outright but he hasn't done enough winning for me and I'd prefer to play him first round lead. Finau has the game to overpower the par 5s which will of course be crucial to gaining the first round advantage. His energy will be flowing walking the pristine fairways and although he is unlikely to see out the week in front, day one may be a hurdle he could overcome. He has notched two first round leads in his last six events so clearly capable of going well early and out on the course at the perfect time for me. Another who I was tempted by in the outright but once again opting for day 1 is PATRICK CANTLAY (best price 66/1). He gained the first round lead just two starts ago and hasn't been out of the top 25 in his last five Thursdays. He strikes me as one who can free flow early in this event and has the talent to possibly lead here after a couple of days. His slow play and battles with the mind may just prove to be his undoing over the weekend. However, at 66/1 he is a tasty enough price for me to gnaw at.
I mentioned this in the podcast but I think ALEX NOREN (best price 11/4) is one of the more likely souls to fall foul of the cut from the top half of the market. He started aiming further and further left off the tee as he fought his way to the final in the match play a few weeks ago. His inability to hit the ball right to left may just contribute to him having a poor record here over the next few years like his countryman Stenson. Noren has only one appearance here which resulted in a missed cut and I think he will struggle again. He is a different golfer nowadays and has impressed a lot in the states. Big tournaments are no longer a dream for the Swede and a major may just be around the corner. However, I think the shape of this course doesn't suit his style and I think the 11/4 out there for him to miss the cut is worth a speculative play.
Fred Couples turns up here every year and seems to shoot outrageous scores. He truly is an animal around this place but I think he is an uneasy favourite in the top Senior market. He hasn't played any competitive golf in over two months and this may be one of the years he struggles. His back is always a worry and with no golf under his belt I fear he won't be as loose as we normally see him. The two other main competitors in this market have negatives also. For all of Langer's brilliance on the Senior Tour he has only made the cut here at Augusta 3 times in his last 11 attempts. It has been a while since he won as well and I think Langer's best days as a Senior are over. Singh is playing golf and for me poses a big danger. An impressive win a few weeks back in a decent field shows he can still mix it and still being very flexible and long off the tee he could score well around here. I see little value however and I'm prepared to have two win only bets on two outsiders. MARK O'MEARA (best price 33/1) has only made one cut here in his last 11 goes but his four outings on the senior tour this year have resulted is four under par finishes. At the Toshiba last time out he was tied for 22nd alongside Jimenez and a full six shots ahead of Langer. He is more than ten times the price of Langer and having finished in the top 25 at Augusta only 3 years ago rates as a decent outside alternative to the jollys. I think LARRY MIZE (best price 28/1) is worth a go also. His recent form isn't anywhere near as good as O'Meara's but he has made three of last four cuts here at Augusta. That is a remarkable stat for the 59 year old and he retains the course knowledge to get around here. Singh remains a likely winner and I certainly see no value in Couples in Langer. These two outsiders could give us a solid chance. I'll be back later in the week with any 2/3 ball bets if and when they appear.
