Justin Rose heads a four-pronged betting attack on this week's Mexico Championship.
Back in the winners enclosure last week in the diminutive shape of Rickie Fowler and we hope to continue that trend with two very reasonable events on offer this week. First up we have a World Golf Championship where the venue has changed from Doral to a picturesque course near Mexico City. Personally I welcome the change, the Doral course always seemed a bit like crazy golf to me. When the wind blew it was almost impossible to keep your ball dry and all that was missing were rotating windmills. Club de Golf Chapultepec on the face of it looks like a traditional classical golf course that will require a solid long game to compete. Tall trees surround most holes and in that respect it is quite similar to Wentworth. Played at a huge altitude this course will yield a lot more yardage than usual and judging distances will be a battle for most in the first few days of competition. With the altitude in mind Crans Sur Sierre must be a course that we look at for form translating from one to another.
We've become accustomed to Dustin Johnson being tournament favourite plenty of times now and this week is no different as he goes in search of another WGC. It is worth noting that these Championships are almost always won by players with big major championship experience. Dustin holds all the aces but around 13/2 I won't be getting involved. His length is compromised this week as he will need to reign it in on various holes. The driving distance gap is also narrowed as plenty can hit it a long way at altitude this week so I believe his advantage not to be as great as in other events. McIlroy makes his return to competition golf and it is anyone's guess as to what game he'll have in his locker. At 12/1 I have to say I'm slightly tempted to back because there was a time I didn't think I'd ever see that price again about him. His path is always rocky enough though and I think I'll give him a few more weeks of golf before I think about getting involved.
I was mighty tempted to go with Fowler again this week after his solid display last week. The way he turned his round on its head during the final round was hugely impressive and I wouldn't be surprised should he kick on from that. His price has shortened somewhat and I'll let it go.
JUSTIN ROSE has been one of the form players so far this year without landing a title and he looks to have every chance of winning this trophy once again. Second at the Sony was followed tops at Torrey Pines and Riviera which has resulted in an impressive start to the year on tough venues. This venue will yield low scores I would say, however the long game will need to be in good nick. His all round game has looked very solid and his putting has been on the improve since changing grip. He has shown form around Wentworth with two runner up spots which I believe will be a good indicator to playing well here. His price is nothing out of the ordinary but we will get involved.
I think MARTIN KAYMER is certainly overpriced to go well in Mexico this week. He too has shown form around Wentworth, but also in other places such as Italy where he was runner up to Karlberg. A tight track seems to concentrate the mind of Kaymer where he can use his fade off the tee with targets to aim at. This was evident last week where he played very well for four days with maybe the flat stick going a shade cold on some occasions resulting in him coming up a little bit shy of really contending. After that performance I wasn't expecting to see 55/1 with 6 places on offer. I've looked at the course and I believe it will suit the more travelled golfer. Rose and Kaymer have a wealth of experience and are exactly the type of golfer to get their names on these WGC's.
Similarly MATT FITZPATRICK likes a tight track and having been a close second to Willett at Crans a few years ago is worthy of some pennies at a top price of 125/1. Nothing is beyond the young Englishman and big Major Championship performances are only around the corner for this lad. He surpassed even my expectations by winning the DP Tour Championship in Dubai last year. It has been a meteoric rise for the biggest talent to come out of England since Westwood. I believe he has a lot bigger game than Westwood though and this track should really suit his neat game.
RAFA CABRERA BELLO is underachieving when it comes to landing trophies. There is no doubt about that. However, he travels well and having shown form on tight courses where your long game must be in decent nick I think he is slightly overpriced. 100/1 with five places on offer in a field of 78 odd is tempting enough to have a small wager.
