
Niall Lyons picks out his best bets for this week's big event at Sawgrass.
Ponte Vedra Beach and The Stadium course at Sawgrass take centre stage this week for one of the most popular events of the calendar. This iconic venue has produced some of the most dramatic finishes down the years and 2017 will be no different.
The greens here have been ripped up and replaced since Jason Day's win here last year and with a few tweaks to some of the holes the players will see a few subtle changes to the venue. However, the firm greens and the watery graves will still make this the iconic test we all know and love from down the years. It isn't the easiest golf course to pick a winner on. Plenty of bombers have won around here as well as the more accurate types so it is always a shade difficult to narrow down our search. A stat I used last week 'Strokes Gained Approaching the Green' will once again be quite relevant at Sawgrass. This is certainly a golf course where you need to place your ball in the right positions. With the new greens and some new pin positions this will become even more important.
Dustin Johnson heads the market at a general price of 7/1 which is quite fair considering the ridiculous golf he is playing right now. No top 20 finish posted here in eight attempts is a big worry though and certainly enough to put me off here. It may just prove over time that Sawgrass is a bit claustrophobic for Dustin. McIlroy is next and armed with a new bag of TaylorMade clubs he will be looking to get off to a fast start. When he switched to Nike clubs it took almost a year for him to find his feet. TaylorMade have a much better reputation though and I suspect these clubs will be a big positive for the former world number one. He has a very solid record here with the last four years form reading 12-8-6-8. I just don't think he is firing on all cylinders this year yet and we'll await a better opportunity to invest the Holywood lad.
JUSTIN THOMAS ranks 13th in the SGA stat and with a 3rd place here Sawgrass already tucked away I believe he is a likely contender this week. Two years ago he posted a top 25 finish having shot a poor final round of 75. After only two years of playing here it certainly looks like Thomas has what it takes to walk away with this title. Sawgrass certainly seems to be a venue where the top class golfer can get a win early in his career also.
Stenson, Garcia, Scott and Fowler have all won this event early enough in their careers so to speak and Thomas could be the next one to make that list. A top 25 last time out at the Masters was a fair enough finish. I do have one niggling doubt about his ball striking from time to time. After two flawless performances at the beginning of the year we have certainly seen a few wild swings since and if they creep in too often at Sawgrass it will inevitably result in a round like he shot on the final day two years ago. This certainly looks set to be a specialist track for Thomas during his career and prices like the 30/1 on offer will certainly pay off over time.
Not many players win twice around here but MARTIN KAYMER is certainly one who can perform well on a single track multiple times and with some recent good signs I think he is worth chancing. It is easy to forget this mans record whenever he isn't doing an awful lot in the game but his record is sparkling. Two Major Championships and a win here at Sawgrass is more than most can hope to achieve. Kaymer is far from done however and eight made cuts from eight here he can be expected to go well once again. The biggest positive for Kaymer this season was the top 20 finish at the Masters. For years his game suffered due to him trying to change his ball flight to play well around Augusta. This year finally he got some pay back with a 16th placed finish. He hasn't missed a cut in any event for 14 months so is a solid each-way bet this week around a track he relishes.













