A pretty weak field turn up this week with Daniel Berger being somewhat of an uneasy favourite
The TPC Deere Run takes centre stage this week in an event which struggles to attract a top class field due to the schedule. Nevertheless it is always an interesting betting heat where the winning golfer will have bagged buckets of birdies come Sunday evening. This is one of the easiest venues on tour and recent rain means we could have even better scores than usual. It will take well into the 20 under par region to contend this on Sunday. I've always felt the course does suit the more strategic player with long driving not being a huge advantage around here. There is room off the tee but you'll need to have a hot putter to make the sufficient birdies to make a play for this title. Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and Steve Stricker account for 5 of the last 8 wins here and all three have similar games. A solid wedge game and strong with the putter.
A pretty weak field turn up this week with Daniel Berger being somewhat of an uneasy favourite. With the Open next week for Berger I am sceptical whether he will be really motivated for this task. Either way there will be a handful of players contending this around the 20 under par mark so taking 14/1 about Berger makes little appeal to me whenever there is sure to be a battle regardless. Having backed Ryan Moore to victory last year I'll be searching for the value in the market away from the favs.
Wesley Bryan is someone I rate quite highly and even though there has been some ragged golf since his maiden win earlier in the season I believe he has the talent to come out of that lacklustre form. He has made his last two cuts which means all isn't too bad in his world. His win at the Heritage showed just how good Bryan's long game can be and at venues like those how that asset gives him a fair advantage on the rest. This is another venue where even though there is room off the tee a solid long game goes a long way. Bryan also ranks in the top 10 for approaches from 125-150 yards which is another positive. On a course which doesn't entirely suit first timers he notched a top ten on debut last year so the 80/1 out there certainly rings value to me. As an added bonus I've just on Twitter he has said this is one of his favourite weeks of the year!
This really is a venue where players can play well upon year after year with many having solid records dating back past ten years. With a top 10 and a top 20 to his name here in two visits I believe Kevin Na is certainly a shade of value at 50/1. He is playing decent golf lately without doing anything spectacular but he clearly likes this venue. Once again it backs up the theory that those with a decent long game play well here over time. Kevin finds it very difficult to win so maybe I shouldn't see it as too much of a surprise he is chalked up this price but I can't help feel taking the 50/1 on offer here is a good decision.
With only six players above him in this field in the world rankings William McGirt is a value bet at 66/1. He is not setting the world alight lately but very few in this field are. It is easy to forget just how well he played in the Masters before faltering on the final day to finish just inside the top 25. It is also easy to forget it is just over a year ago since he won the prestigious Memorial event. McGirt is certainly talented enough to take this title under the radar ahead of the Open and he is certainly worth a play at the odds.
Finally I'll have a small wager on outsider Chris Stroud. Stroud has yet to get over the winning line on the tour but is putting together some solid performances this season. A top 10 in Puerto Rico has been backed up with an 11th placed spot at the team event in Zurich and most recently finished 20th last week at the Greenbrier. He was one of only a small handful of players to shoot four rounds in the 60s last week and the same will be needed this week. He is 7 from 8 here with a top five finish two years ago so is a lively outsider.
