Houston plays host to the last PGA Tour event before the first major of the year.
Houston Open
The Houston Open is a perfect warm up event for the first major of the year which starts a week on Thursday. Tournament organisers try to make the Houston GC look as close to Augusta as possible from cutting the grass in the same way to the crystal white bunkering. In truth the playability is a lot different to what we will see next week, nevertheless the green speeds will get the players used to a lightning surface which they will face next week. Plenty choose to fine tune their game away from tournament golf and it is difficult to ascertain if there is an advantage either way.
Over the past few years I have noticed a correlation between form figures here and the Pheonix Open. It is difficult to put my finger on exactly why, maybe it is the pristine condition in which both courses are setup and similar hazards. Singh, Mickelson and Holmes have won both events, Verplank runner up in both and Mahan, Bubba and Fowler have all shown form across both events. Henley added himself to that list last year after we tipped him having posted 10 under par in the Pheonix earlier that season. I have named the obvious form above of those who have played well in each tournament but rest assured there are plenty more who go well in both. I will once again be keeping this in mind when I make my selections.
Fowler, Rose and Spieth all fight out favouritism this week and I'm surprised Spieth isn't jolly of the 3. Fowler has been disappointing in contention of late and swing changes continue to plague him every now and then. He doesn't win often enough to warrant a quote of 10/1 in my book in a field this strong. Rose doesn't look as good with the putter as he did this time last year and for me is very skinny in the market also. Likewise next week at Augusta where I don't think he can hope to have as good a putting week as he did in 2017. Spieth should be favourite in my book as he will surely give this event more attention than most. He is the one who is battling a ragged long and short game right now and will be looking answers before he tees it up at Augusta. It would not surprise me if he bounces back to some form here. Mickelson admittedly plays more drivers off the tee here than he should in preparation for next week so I think his course management around here puts his general quote of 12/1 into question also. As much as I tempted to get involved with Spieth I think it could be a play best left to in running and gauging how he goes a few holes into the event.
Daniel Berger (best price 25/1) is an obvious pick on form but given the Phoenix Open trend he has to be my top selection. He went out in the group stage of the Matchplay which isn't much to worry about and previous to that finished in the top 15 of five of his last seven events/ That included Mexico WGC, Phoenix, Sony, Hawaii and the Hero. He isn't doing anything out of the ordinary special but everything points towards a big week for the world number 37. He has finished in the top 5 the past two years here on the trot and with form figures of 10-58-7-11 in Arizona he must be considered a big threat to the favourites. Having won the St Jude in 2016 and successfully defending in 2017 he looks one to play on courses he previously has form on. A gritty enough character whilst in contention he looks one of the more likely winners to me.
Another with form at both events is Chris Kirk (best price 80/1)all be it that this year was his best performance in Arizona with a tied 11th spot. He has made 6 of 7 cuts there mind you and comes to Houston where he finished runner up in 2011. Kirk is an inconsistent sort but has strung together a decent set of results lately and could possibly contend at an event where plenty have one eye on Augusta. Some of these lesser likes will be buzzing at the opportunity of a late entry into the Masters also so a win will mean the world. Kirk finished inside the top 15 last time out at the Arnold Palmer which was littered with some of the worlds best golfers. As previously mentioned an 11th spot in Phoenix and a top 5 at the RSM have shown us that Kirk could be on the verge of another PGA tour victory. He has a silky putting touch and a lovely wedge game which should translate well here and is sitting at a juicy price to my eyes.
Finally I'll take a chance of a small stake on outsider Beau Hossler (bets price 160/1). He started off this season with two very impressive performances at the Sanderson and Shriners finishing 10th and 7th on those two occasions. Since then he has failed to hit those heights but it is not for the want of trying. He has posted many good rounds in events only to have them tainted with a bad round here and there. His best finish since those two events has been a top 20 at the Pheonix where he was right in the mix heading into day four before losing ground to shooting a 71. He is still a cub at 23 years of age and given the talent he has he could have a decent career ahead of him. Again, in a week where motivation for these guys to win is a fair bit more than most of the principles he may be a value shot around the 150 mark.
