Our golf expert has picked some huge prices as the PGA Tour heads to Twin Cities.
3M Open Winner
A dip in class is probably welcome for most bettors as we see a weakened field as we approach the years first major in a couple of week. The Arnold Palmer design at Twin Cities was first used for a PGA tour event n 2019 and produced a dramatic back 9 with Wolff, Morikawa and Dechambeau all going head to head over the final few holes. Water dominates the course with plenty to contend with off the tee and approaching greens. Overall though long driving helps and strokes gained tee to green was the obvious stat to look to last year when looking at the contenders.
Dustin Johnson needs to bounce back after disappointing last week but he has done so before and can't be ruled out. He has managed to pull off some of these events with weaker fields in the past few years and is worthy favourite. I can let him win easy at the price though without getting despondent. The same applies to the other market leaders in this event. Kopeka has severe question marks surrounding the rest of his season citing problems with the knee are still there and not improving. Fleetwood is coming back of a long layoff and is also easily passed up at the price. Wolff is probably the most tempting at the top end of the market given his play recently and his win here last year. He is the type who could go well again but backing defending champion who hasn't won since at 25/1 makes little appeal.
Lucas Glover shot an impressive 62 here in the final round to finish 7th with only a second round 72 scuppering his chances of something better. He is playing decent stuff and is a likely contender but around the 30/1 isn't of much interest. Dylan Frittelli rates a much better prospect at double the odds. 22nd at the Memorial was a sign of just how classy a golfer the South African is and greater things probably lie ahead for this lad. He should relish the return to a venue like this also having won the John Deere during this month last year at 21 under par. It is worth noting here finished 46th here at the 3M Open last year having lost 5 strokes on the greens. We can expect a much better performance on the greens this time and looks one of the best value bets in the field at a top price of 80/1.
1pt each-way D. Frittelli 80/1 (1/5 7 places)
I'll take little in the way of negatives from missed cuts last week. It was a major championship type venue which played extremely tough and volatile. So after getting a couple of rounds under his belt I think Bernd Wiesberger is a no brainer type play at triple figures. He sits 29th in the world and I personally had him eyed up for some majors this season before the break. His performances in the last year have been tremendous with a win in Denmark and two Rolex wins in Scotland and Italy. There were a few missed cuts at the start of this season but Wiesberger on his day can put it to almost anyone outside the top 4 in the betting. The price is a risky one for bookmakers to be laying and although there are risks our side also, he looks impossible to leave off the staking plan.
0.75pt each-way B. Wiesberger 100/1 (1/5 8 places)
Scott Piercy loves a birdie fest and is another must play at triple figures. His best regular tour performances come on the tracks where you can open your shoulders and make plenty of birdies. He did that last year leading after round one here at Twin Cities with a 62 eventually finishing 15th. He was going well last week before faltering, like many others over the weekend to a 77-78. No negatives there for me and the fact he made the cut comfortably before the weekend carnage was a good sign. He was playing fine stuff before the break with top 10 at Phoenix followed by top 20s at Pebble and the Genesis. This is certainly one of the more likely venues where he could pounce.
0.75pt each-way S. Piercy 125/1 (1/5 8 places)
Ignoring last week's MC at the Memorial it would be foolish to dismiss Troy Merritt's chances here in Minnesota. He had made four cuts on the trot before arriving at Jack's stern test. 8th at the Rocket Mortgage and a top 25 the week later at Muirfield Village were fair positives for Troy. With the wind set to blow across the week I think his ability to keep the ball in play and away from the hazards may prove important. Overall he is playing some decent stuff lately and finished 7th here at the course last year. Looks a tasty enough play at the 70/1 mark.
0.75pt each-way T. Merritt 70/1 (1/5 8 places)
Finally Brice Garnett has a handful of impressive results in better fields this year and could pounce on one of the weaker ones since the return. With a handful of missed cuts he hasn't been overly eye catching but a top 20 at Harbour Town was a fair showing. Previous to that before the break he finished 11th at the Honda. He already has a win on tour in a lower grade event in Punta Cana. Went 67-71-67-66 here last year and is another interesting runner bigger than 100/1.
0.75pt each-way B. Garnett 125/1 (1/5 8 places)
