Our golf expert has previewed this week's PGA Tour event at Olympia Fields.
BMW Championship - Winner
An interesting week is upon us as the tour returns to one of the more classical designs on tour, Olympia Fields in Illinois which last hosted a professional event back in 2003 when Jim Furyk won the US Open. It remains to be seen just how tough this test will be but I suspect Furyk's winning total of 8 under will be surpassed comfortably. That being said it is a long par 70 at 7300+ yards which could play into the longer hitters hands despite the tree lined nature of the track. Dustin's performance last week was superb but I'm surprised just how short he has gone in this weeks market. There have been plenty of streaky winners in the playoff events down the years and Johnson is making a bid to power towards Fedex glory.
Rory McIlroy had a very strange week in Boston with having his best week approaching the greens since the Arnold Palmer in March and his worst week on the greens in nearly four years. Without being in contention I'd suggest some of those strokes lost are down to a lack of interest but lying 12th in the Fedex standings he will be looking to position himself much better heading into the finale at East Lake next week. Hopefully that'll be enough to focus the mind this week as he attempts a hat trick of Fedex wins. His driving last week was in negative strokes gained against the field which is a rare bird as there have only been two other instances of a negative figure in the last 2+ years. Each time he has bounced back from those figures and this week we can expect him to marry the driver with that solid approach play we saw last week. If the putter heats up then we'd really be laughing. McIlroy needs careful consideration any time he tees it up at almost double the odds of Jon Rahm and more than double the odds of DJ. There were enough positives last week to suggest chancing the Irishman this week and I won't lose any sleep shall he not oblige around the 18/1 mark.
3pts WIN R. McIlroy 18/1
Tony Finau is a difficult one to judge but he's as likely to win a major as he is any other event really. His major record is better than most now with four top 5 finishes without really threatening to win one right at the business end. His ability to play well on the tougher tracks is worth noting with his recent best results in that category being 8th at the Memorial and 4th at PGA. He was alongside Dechambeau in the PGA two weeks ago and he is more than double the price. Obviously Bryson is the better golfer right now and a lot more prolific but Finau mixes it with the best regularly on the major layouts and can be expected to go well here again. His attention will be heightened right from the gun here currently lying 29th in the standings and on the precipice of falling out of the Tour Champ next week. If he won this week and managed to give himself a decent spot for the handicap showdown next week it'd be probably the best viewing of the year watching him go for the mega prize. The weekend off at the Northern Trust isn't a huge negative as it has been a busy period. With three top 10s in his previous four outings he's trending towards a decent victory.
1.25pts each-way T. Finau 33/1 (1/5 7 places)
Xander Schauffele fits the bill this week as someone who hits the ball long and straight and his credentials here are up there with the best. However his price doesn't fill my cup enough this week and I'd rather play a similar golfer at much longer odds. Victor Hovland could make a sparkling career from hitting it long and straight on these classical golf courses and he looks the type to excel here at Olympia Fields. He played ok last week finishing 18th for us at a bigger price than what he lines up for this event. I'm surprised he has ended up so short but nevertheless I think he's worth including in the staking plan. We know he has been working a lot on his short game and although around the green remains an issue it is worth noting his last two outings at the Northern Trust and the PGA have produced his best two weeks on the greens since joining the tour. The rough around the greens at the Workday wasn't quite as long as the following week at the Memorial at Muirfield Village, but he managed to gain 2 strokes around the greens there over the space of the 2 weeks. It remains the risk when playing Hovland, but giving how well he is putting he must be backed here.
1.25pt each-way V. Hovland 40/1 (1/5 6 places)
Jason Kokrak is a very interesting runner who could go well at a decent price. He is another who performs better on the tougher tracks on tour and his last two tee to green performances suggest he could force his way into the argument at Olympia Fields. He is a streaky sort who could take to this track given his prowess to hit a long and accurate ball. He just never wins which is the worry, but not too many golfers have beaten him over the last two weeks with two top 15 finishes and looks a decent price given that form.
If the event plays out at all like the 2003 US Open Corey Conners should hold plenty of aces in regards to putting together a score. As ever we are trusting to some luck that his putter heats up as the club is a fair problem with only 2 positives strokes gained figures on the greens in the 9 events since we restarted. Tee to green though he has been exceptional and triple figure quotes certainly look worth chancing for someone who could make serious hay if he has a good putting week. Of the others Russel Henley looked a decent price and his time may not be far away.
0.75pt each-way J. Kokrak 90/1 (1/5 6 places)
0.75pt each-way C. Conners 100/1 (1/5 7 places)
