Safeway Open - Winner

Silverado hosts the first event of the 2021 season and suffers from the hectic end of the season just passed with the Fedex only finishing up last week. Nevertheless it is an interesting betting heat on a course we know a fair bit about. Fairways here are very tough to hit although the penalty for missing them is minimal. Champ hit just over 50% of fairways here last year when winning on a total of 17 under par. Greens in regulation seems to be a decent stat to go by but hitting the ball a long way will clearly give you an advantage on the rest, and Champ is a testament to that finishing first in driving distance last year.

Not many in this field have scintillating form but Phil Mickelson is worthy of tournament jolly and gets my vote as a likely winner. Phil dipped his toe into the Senior tour a few weeks back to a resounding success and that can only serve as a positive as he heads to California this week. He limped out of the playoffs with a missed cut at the Northern Trust but can be expected to truly fancy his chances here in a much weakened field and at a venue where he has a handful of top tens. With a lesser penalty for missing fairways here this can be considered a positive and if Mickelson can recapture some of the same form from parts of this season he will be a tough man to beat. He finished 2nd in the St Jude and has two other top 3 finishes this year. Overall I think he has shown signs he can more than compete in a field of this strength and he'll be looking to gain the feather in the cap of an over 50 winning on the main tour. Fair price this week in my view.

2.5pts each-way P. Mickelson 20/1 (1/5 8 places)

Phil Mickelson - 2.5pts e/w @ 20/1

Charley Hoffman has only bettered his approaching stats from the Northern Trust four times in his career and must be considered here off the back of that effort. 7th at the Workday was his only other sign of life during the last few months but given those 2 efforts inside the top 15 came in very strong fields he must be a sleeper here this week. Poa Annua is his favoured surface and can cope with a little wind that often materialises here. Hard to win with but a weaker field means he must be played.

1.5pts each-way C. Hoffman 80/1 (1/4 5 places)

Charley Hoffman - 1.5pts e/w @ 80/1

Henrik Norlander has managed a few impressive performances in his first few seasons on tour, none more so than when he contended for most of the way in the Memorial to finish in 6th spot. That was a very tough task that week and the Swede showed us what he is capable of if his putter can get hot. A similar calibre of performance would comfortably win this event. This is more of a level playing field though with plenty of birdies on offer and Norlander has the talent to follow in Champ's footsteps of getting over the line for a maiden victory here. He missed the cut last time out at the Northern Trust with a lacklustre first round probably leading to a similar second round effort given how easy the course was playing and how far he was behind. Previous to that 41st was his worst finish in his last five events, with four of them being a lot stronger than this one. A little overpriced because of his missed cut last time out.

1.25pts each-way H. Norlander 66/1 (1/5 8 places)

Henrik Norlander - 1.25pts e/w @ 66/1

Maverick McNealy has made 3 cuts on the trot here and can take advantage of the worlds best and many more taking a few weeks off. This a perfect time for someone like McNealy, a former world no1 amateur, to gain his maiden victory on the tour. He struggled to land a blow during the playoffs but previous to that he finished 8th at the Rocket Mortgage. He gains 0.6 strokes per round on Poa Annua with 15th at Torrey Pines and 5th at Pebble owing to that stat. Overall he is a talented sort who should fancy his chances in these wraparound events.

1pt each-way M. McNealy 60/1 (1/5 8 places)

Maverick McNealy - 1pt e/w @ 60/1

There aren't many golfers in this field with multiple wins and Troy Merritt may see these as an opportunity to add to his tally. Poa Annua is his favoured surface and he can add to performances like the 8th at the Workday and the runner up finish at the Barracuda. He has finished runner up in that event the past two years and has a top 5 finish here a couple of years back. Always a threat in a weaker field and some nice performances of late make the 80/1 tempting enough. Piercy and Wise were another couple just off my staking plan.

1pt each-way T. Merritt 80/1 (1/5 7 places)

Troy Merritt - 1pt e/w @ 80/1