Niall Lyons has four picks for the Farmers Insurance Open, ranging from 18/1 to 66/1.
Farmers Insurance Open
Course - North & South courses Torrey Pines, San Diego, California.
Last year four of the first five home were 40th or worse in driving distance. Two years ago Pavon won ranking 38th in driving distance, while third-placed Lashley was 71st in the same statistic. Of the six who made the frame in 2023, only one broke into the top 30 in Driving Distance for the week.
In 2022 List ranked 12th in that department, but rankings of 30, 28 and 74 made up three of the other top five. Reed won the previous year ranking 51st in driving distance, so it is certainly no necessity to be one of the longest in the field.
What does show up time and again, though, is the need for a strong tee-to-green game, built largely on approach play and sharp work around the greens. There are a few ways to get it done, however, and it’s difficult to rule many out purely on their statistical profile.
Reed’s win is a good example — a below-par week with the irons was rescued by a tremendous short game.
A West Coast trait is often Poa Annua greens and they feature once again at Torrey Pines. This can hand an edge to Californians who grew up on the surface, while it can also level the playing field for those who usually struggle on the greens, as Poa tends to be more volatile than Bermuda.
Nothing highlighted that more than Luke List’s win in 2022, when a player who had long battled with the putter suddenly produced one of his best weeks on the greens.
Previous Winners / Winning Score
2025 - H.English (-8)
2024 - M.Pavon (-13)
2023 - M.Homa (-13)
2022 - L.List (-15)
2021 - P.Reed (-14)
2020 - M.Leishman (-15)
Winners / Contenders Stats
Monopoly Sports
Tip 1: 3.5pts WIN L. Aberg (20/1)
Last year Ludvig Åberg opened with a 63, only to fall down the field to 42nd over the next three days with the onset of an illness. That illness then forced him to withdraw from Pebble Beach after an opening 77.
However, it was only two weeks later that he returned at the Genesis — re-housed at Torrey Pines — and landed his second PGA Tour victory.
He also shot five under par over the weekend on the South Course back in 2024 to finish 9th, so there is plenty to like about his form around this track.
With no Scheffler in the field, and this event looking very top-heavy when you study the market, I'm surprised Åberg isn't 3 or 4 points shorter for what is clearly one of the most suited tracks on the PGA Tour for him.
The Swede's long game thrives across the two Torrey tracks, and an opening two-over-par 74 last year wasn’t enough to stop him winning the Genesis, as he shot two 66s on the South Course over the final three days.
There aren’t many in the field who can boast the level of form he has on this demanding layout. And although we're taking a slight risk following his withdrawal last week, it feels like a risk well worth taking at the current prices.
Tip 2: 3.5pts WIN - X. Schauffele (18/1)
I'm pleasantly surprised that Aberg and Schauffele haven't taken up a lot more of the market here and I can't resist going in with two win only plays.
Schauffele hasn't been seen since Baycurrent Classic victory back in October where he beat a smaller but similar field to this one this week.
It was a tough 2025 in many respects following his Major successes the year before but he found his stride again in the Summer and Autumn and two top tens at the Scottish and Open Championships was a sign he wasn't going to go winless for long.
The break between competitive golf is clearly a worry here but there was a 7 week gap between the BMW and his victory in Japan and given he has won the Sentry opener in Hawaii before there is enough evidence to suggest he can overcome it.
He loves it here at Torrey and all that is missing is a victory.
Runner up in 2021, 13th in 2023, 9th in 2024 and a top ten in the US Open here is fine course form on a demanding layout.
He, like Aberg, is streets ahead of many in this field in terms of consistency on these tracks and once you go past the 40/1 mark the quality dips quite drastically here.
I expect the market front runners to get the best of it here.
Tip 3: 1pt EW - W. Zalatoris
40/1 and 8 places available with Betfred's extra places market.
There are risks attached to backing Will Zalatoris as we've seen a couple of false dawns before from a player whose career has been blighted by injury.
He is certainly talking a good game to begin with.
He has mentioned that this is the first time in years that he is really comfortable with his game and being able to work harder than ever in the gym is really paying off.
As we've seen numerous times before Zalatoris is a big threat on the long championship golf courses.
Outside of Major conditions his last four trips to this golf course have yielded results of 7-2-CUT-13-24.
Throughout injuries and tough times this has consistently been a place where he has been able to turn up to and perform.
Last week at the Stadium course he had more chances the entire field (14) inside ten feet and only one other had more chances inside 20 feet.
There were huge positives at the Nedbank at the end of 2025 and now plenty to be happy about following a fine effort at the American Express.
As ever much will depend on the putter but Poa Annua greens levels that playing field a little and for the most part he has putted quite well on the South Course.
Tip 4: 1pt EW - Pierceson Coody (66/1)
Garrick Higgo is playing well enough to get into the conversation here although his price does appear a little malnourished.
I had hoped for a bigger price than what we get for Pierceson Coody but he looks set to go well this week in California and makes the staking plan.
The 26 year old looks to have finally found a footing on the PGA Tour and could go very close to landing a maiden tour victory in next number of months.
It was a fine ending to 2025 making five cuts on the spin with his best finish being 3rd in Utah.
He has kicked off this year impressively as well finishing 13th at Waialae then 18th in the Californian Desert last week.
He can have fond memories of Torrey as it was his first and only Major appearance to date back in 2021 as an amateur and even though he has now missed 3 cuts in as many appearances here there are reasons to be hopeful.
He is a much better operator these days and is playing some really nice golf.
The putter has caused him some problems over the last six months but it's worth noting than in his 3 appearances here at Torrey and another on Poa Annua greens at Memorial Park he has gained strokes on the field on the greens every single time.
That is a big positive for someone whose long game is in really good nick right now so I can see him figuring here over the weekend.
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