Niall Lyons has picked out a five-man squad for this week's PGA Tour Event, The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Course: TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas.
The Byron Nelson has a long history and has hopped between venues but for the sixth year running we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas. Craig Ranch is one of the easiest tracks the pros will play all year.
Scottie Scheffler won with a whopping 31 under par total last year and Korean KH Lee has won two renewals here at 25 and 26 under par. Fellow Korean Sung Kang won the event at Trinity Forest back in 2019 and it's worth noting that only six Americans have won this event in the last seventeen stagings.
That is probably due to the wind that often materialises in Texas with Internationals having a shade more experience growing up in those conditions. Scott, Day and Bowditch have also won this event with Australians being well versed in playing in the wind.
Ball striking is key around here, especially approach play. Five of the top 5 and ties in 2022 ranked inside the top ten in approach play for the week whilst the exact same played out in 2021. In 2023 and 2024 approach play didn't feature so heavily but it's worth noting the 2023 winner Jason Day ranked 3rd with his irons for the week whilst the runner up last year Kohles ranked 7th in that department.
Last year six of the top 10 in strokes gained approach for the week finished inside the top 5 and ties with the winner topping that statistic. Driving distance doesn't matter all too much but certainly trumps accuracy. It's a place where birdies are needed on almost every other hole so birdie or better percentages are also worth a glance.
Previous Winners / Winning Score:
2025 - S.Scheffler (-31)
2024 - T.Pendrith (-23)
2023 - J.Day (-23)
2022 - KH Lee (-26)
2021 - KH Lee (-25)
Previous Winners / Contenders Stats:
Niall Lyons' Byron Nelson Betting Tips
Brooks Koepka - 3pt Win
Best odds of 27/1 with bet365's Enhanced Win market when publishing.
Scottie Scheffler is now winless in 9 and although this is the weakest event he has played in thus far this year I wasn't quite expecting quotes of 6/4 on the opening show. His putter misbehaved last week and although his consistency is phenomenal it would take a brave punter to weigh in at 6/4.
Plenty of clues point towards Pierceson Coody but I'm a little horrified at his price and can't get involved with a maiden at these odds despite having a great profile for this.
Brooks Koepka's iron game deserted him after the first round last week and it is hard to pinpoint why. Did he become a little despondent after his putting woes and allow that to creep into the rest of his game for the following three rounds? Possibly. Either way it is difficult to know what the hangover will be of that but I'm happy to take the chance that more straightforward greens and an emphasis on approach play can play into his hands once again and he can return to the form he was in before the PGA Championship.
He will have been immensely frustrated with the putter in the last few weeks and I'm a believer that it was that club that sent him tumbling down the leaderboard last week despite the stats suggesting his long game was in bad shape all weekend.
A two time winner of the Phoenix Open is relevant seeing we see the same course designer this week and a return to this type of golf may just have come at the perfect time. I'll be backing win only just incase there is a lasting hangover from that poor weekend in Pennsylvania.
Tom Kim - 1pt Each-Way
66/1 and 8 places available with bet365's Each-Way Extra market when publishing.
It'll be interesting to see if Tom Kim can follow up his 6th placed finish at Myrtle Beach and I'm going to take the chance that he does.
Kim had the world at his feet a couple of years ago only to endure a miserable 2025. 2026 has been a little more kind with only one missed cut in a strokeplay event to date. He ranked 2nd on approach at Myrtle Beach and his iron play has been much improved in 2026.
Desert style golf suits Tom Kim and with a couple of wins at TPC Summerlin he comes well equipped for this type of test. He has a 3rd placed finish at a Scottish Open and a runner up in a breezy Open Championship so any wind that blows in Texas this week should be right up his street. Should he get into the mix once again this 23 year old should find it easier than most to get back on the horse and get his career firmly back on track.
Jhonattan Vegas - 1pt Each-Way
150/1 and 8 places available with Betfred's Extra Place market.
Jhonattan Vegas is reaching a ripe age of 42 but is still able to bash the ball off the tee and keep up with the majority. Vegas hasn't done an awful lot of note this year but it's worth pointing out that his best performance of the year thus far was in Houston where he lives. I believe we can take the chance that similar happens once again now he is back in Texas.
44th last week at the PGA looks a fine result on paper on Vegas but dig deeper and it'll be painful for him. He ranked 2nd in the field for strokes gained tee to green and dead last in the field with the putter. It could have been a different story last week altogether and Vegas should be extremely confident with his long game heading to Craig Ranch.
He has been 9th and 13th here in two of his last four appearances and results of 10-23-22 across his last three efforts at TPC Scottsdale is another eye catcher. Surely he can't putt as badly as last week?
Stephan Jaeger - 1pt Each-Way
55/1 and 8 places available with bet365's Extra Place market.
Stephan Jaeger was tied for the lead after round one of the PGA last week and overall he did pretty well to hang around for a tie for 18th place and his best finish in a Major to date. He was one whose long game wasn't in immaculate shape last week but managed to make up for it on the greens ranking 9th in that department.
His approach play will need to be better this week of course but I wouldn't rule it out in a low scoring affair. His sole PGA victory to date came in Houston and a return to Texas after plenty of encouragement last week should be perfect timing.
He has played well at Craig Ranch also finishing 11th back in 2023 and it's worth nothing he has a runner up and 11th placed finish at the Black Desert Resort, another Weiskopf design. Jaeger has shot as low as 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour so is well equipped to make the requisite birdies to contend here should the long game improve a little from last week.
Luke Clanton - 0.5pts Each-Way
300/1 and 8 places available with bet365's Extra Place market.
I'm happy to take a little bit of a flyer on Luke Clanton this week. Having turned pro last year Clanton was expected to be a fast learner on the PGA Tour but after a blistering set of results on the PGA Tour as an amateur he has failed to make the upgrade as a professional.
Since his runner up finish at the RSM Classic in November of 2024 nothing of note has happened since and he has struggled. 5th in Puerto Rico two months ago might have looked like a return to form but it was swiftly followed by another missed cut. His last effort a few weeks ago was a tie for 60th at Myrtle Beach but he ranked 1st in strokes gained approach which was his second best effort with the irons statistically on tour to date.
The rest of his game is a bit all over the place but there is room for some randomness in events such as this that reach 20+ under par so we'll take the risk after that last effort.
