Niall Lyons picks out his four first round leader shouts for the 2026 US Open.
US Open BettingSee All Odds
Thursday is looking like being one of the toughest opening days in recent Major history. Not only do we have the notoriously difficult Shinnecock Hills hosting this week's US Open, we have a horror show of a weather forecast for day one.
Rain and possibly even lightning comes into play for a small part of it, but strong wiinds feature throughout the whole day. Suspensions are highly likely and wind could well be the reason as opposed to lightning activity. It makes the first round leader market very tricky so I will keep stakes to a minimum and stick to four golfers win only.
Niall Lyons' 2026 US Open First Round Leader Tips
0.75pt C.Gotterup (50/1)
0.75pt MW Lee (85/1)
0.75pt P.Reed (50/1)
0.5pt J.Schaper (125/1)
Chris Gotterup - 0.75pt Win
50/1 available with Betfred / BetMGM / AK Bets.
First up I'll go with Chris Gotterup. Gotterup won twice earlier this season and what is impressive since is that he has maintained a pretty high level.
He is collecting some very decent finishes in Major Championships now making 5 cuts from 6 and finishing 25-3-24-10 in his last four tries at the big ones. The 3rd came at Portrush a week after he had managed to win the Scottish Open at the Renaissance.
Throw in wins at Myrtle Beach and Waialae and we have someone very capable in windy conditions. He has an early tee time which is probably best and he has gotten into the habit of putting his best foot forward in these Majors.
Min Woo Lee - 0.75pt Win
85/1 available with AK Bets when publishing.
With suspensions likely there is a chance the afternoon wave get to finish their first round on Friday morning which looks a little less turbulent and for that reason I want to include one from this bracket which will be Min Woo Lee.
Lee's first victory came at the Vic Open in conditions very similar to what we will see tomorrow. He has since added a links victory at the Scottish Open as well as a victory in the windy state of Texas. With a runner up at Pebble Beach and his best Major finish posted in the US Open at LACC in 2023 Min Woo might be a little overlooked this week.
He should relish these conditions and having co-led the PGA Championship after round one last month he has a fair chance of following that up.
Hot Streak
Patrick Reed - 0.75pt Win
55/1 available with BetMGM / Virgin Bet when publishing.
Patrick Reed is very lightly raced this year after his return from LIV golf but he is still managing to put together really impressive performances. 12th at the Masters was followed by 10th at the PGA Championship and he should relish this Shinnecock layout which should put a premium on work on and around the greens.
He finished 4th here back in 2018 and can really control his ball flight under the winds on day one. He added a victory in Doha this year to his CV and that place is littered with some of the best wind players to have played the game.
There are very little negatives to his chances this week and I'd rather play him in the lowest round score markets rather than the outright simply because I'm sceptical as to whether he has played enough competitive tournaments to last home four days in a Major.
Jayden Schaper - 0.5pt Win
125/1 available with BetMGM / Virgin Bet when publishing.
Finally I'll have a flyer on Jayden Schaper. The South African has enjoyed a breakout year on the DPWT and having gotten his first outing at a Major under his belt at the PGA last month should be better equipped this time around.
A victory last December in Mauritius is relevant as that is by the coast and it usually blows there. He has finished 5th and 9th in the last two renewals of the Qatar Masters so clearly has what it takes in windy conditions.
It's a little bit guessy as to whether the early starters will get the best of it but generally speaking at the crack of dawn it is hard to see those being the worst conditions of the day and with Schaper out in the second group I'm happy to take the chance.
