Niall Lyons picks out the best US Open bets away from the outright win market.
One day to go to the main event and I've been sifting out a few extra bets to keep us entertained throughout the week. First up, I think Graeme McDowell
is a shade overpriced to win the Top Irish market. Up against Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy it certainly is a tough heat but he can not be ruled out with the way the course is set up. McIlroy is obviously strong favourite but his performance is far from guaranteed. I find it hard to see McIlroy having an 'ordinary' week. It could well be win or bust and we'll find that out early on day one no doubt.
Should Rory blast out of the blocks then the rest of the field will be chasing his shadow. However with trouble lurking everywhere on this course he is not guaranteed to shoot good scores. He is 1/4 to win this heat yet I wouldn't have him an awful lot shorter to make the cut. This could turn out to be crazy golf and McDowell was there when it mattered in 2010 when the greens were very fast like they are here in Oakmount. The first two days are vital to this bet as there is a fair bit of rain forecast. I'm hoping that doesn't price McDowell out of this exchange as the course will lengthen with the rain. Should he make the cut I think we could get a fair run out of this bet.
G.McDowell Top Irish Player - 1pt @ 6/1Lost -1pts
has shown a fair bit of form of late and could land an upset in the Top South African market. He seems to be free from a lot of the injuries he has suffered over the last number of years and there are a few who quietly fancy him to go well this week. Three top 15 finishes on the trot at the Wells Fargo, Sawgrass and St Jude suggest Goosen is in decent enough form to land a blow this week. Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel head the market with Louis Oosthuizen tucked in behind. A formidable threesome to beat for sure but there's no way all will go to plan and all three will make the cut. We'll be concerned with Goosen only and if he can get off to a good start on the first couple of days he could be a sleeper in the outright market also. A top price of 15/2 awaits those ready to back Retief here and that is certainly an ounce of value.
R.Goosen Top South African - 1pt e/w @ 15/2Lost -2pts
Jason Day is fancied to play well here this week also and it is hard to see him out of the running considering his form. Adam Scott
on the other hand has not missed a cut since last August and is overpriced to win the Australian market at 4/1. He won two weeks on the trot earlier in the year at the Honda and Cadillac and is coming here under the radar. He has an experienced caddy on the bag who will no doubt offer some decent advice as he meanders through Oakmounts 18 holes. Scott is a classy operator and I was reluctant to leave him out of my staking plan in the outright market. With a top heavy market place terms are thin on the ground so we'll have to go win only at 4/1 which is a bit disappointing but it is certainly worth supporting.
A.Scott Top Australian - 1pt @ 4/1Lost -1pts
Finally, just one bet to be had in the first round 3 balls in the burly figure of Patrick Reed
. He is up against Matt Kuchar and Buba Watson. Watson, although dangerous around these types of tracks has not done an awful lot worthy of note recently and I'll chance that with these tight fairways he'll find enough trouble to make this more of a shootout between the other two. Kuchar with his accurate game will definitely be difficult to shake but Reed is playing impressive stuff lately and I can't really have him as the big outsider of these three. Granted, that's the way it should be priced taking their outright prices into account but given the form of Reed the 21/10 on offer is very tempting.
P.Reed to win 3 ball - 2pts @ 21/10Lost -2pts