Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Given how impressive September was on the eye on debut at Leopardstown, it’s no surprise in many ways to see Aidan O’Brien’s filly a short-priced favourite here, however, her relatively modest overall time figure that day suggests she might be slightly overrated in the market and she’s readily passed over at the prices in favour of NAYLETI (best price 12-1) and HAY GAMAN (14-1). The former, representing a stable who’ve won this race three times in the past, showed impressive battling qualities to overcome the persistent challenge of the more-experienced Billesdon Brook at Salisbury on debut and given how strong she was in the final furlong that day, one would like to assume an extra furlong will suit. Moreover, her overall and sectional times compared extremely favourable to the listed Cathedral Stakes run over the same C&D for older horses, so armed with that knowledge, her double-figure quotes make plenty of appeal.

The latter created a favourable impression despite getting beat by the heavily-backed Westerland at Leicester and he looks just the type to improve considerable for the run. After travelling well through most of what turned out to be a well-run race, James Tate’s only failed through lack of match practice in the dying strides and given that he’s bound to know a good deal more second time around, he also looks to be overpriced based on his potential.

Godolphin have enjoyed a fruitful week at the Royal meeting and there’s a decent chance that KIDMENEVER (best price 11-2) can provide the boys in the blue with even more cheer. Previously with French connections, the Baltic King colt ran a really pleasing race on his first start Charlie Appleby when fourth in a very competitive handicap over 1m 4f out in the desert. Shaping as though the combination of the trip and lack of an outing for 161 days just found him out late on, the four-year-old was seen to much better effect when dropped two furlongs on his latest outing, doing all of his best work in the closing stages to grab second behind stable mate Viren’s Army. Time figure-wise, both of those two efforts put him right in the picture against today’s opponents and with his pilot William Buick really seeing it here this week, confidence is high he can steer home another to victory.

The Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup night is probably the nearest contest anywhere around the world that mirrors the conditions the runners will face here, so having run his absolute face off to finish an agonising second in that Group 1 event, LONG ON VALUE (best price 20-1) can make his long trek over the pond worthwhile. Although only a listed winner in his native land, William Mott’s inmate belied the class hike and his 66/1 starting price out in the desert by finishing off strongest of all to finish a never-nearer runner-up to The Right Man, and if he hadn’t suffered interference which caused him to hook around the entire field at halfway, there’s no doubt he would have obliged. Although there doesn’t appear to be masses of pace in today’s line-up, hopefully they will go at least a decent gallop and providing they do, this strong-finishing type will be cutting his quarry down late on in the piece.

As Bruce Forsyth often said famously on Play Your Cards Right “higher, higher, lower lower?” and that’s the question most punters will be asking themselves when weighing up this traditional cavalry charge. The safest option, therefore, may be to have one drawn either side and of those housed towards the far rail STEADY PACE (best price 22-1) makes most appeal at his early morning quotes. Being a horse best suited by a strong-run 6f but having the stamina for seven, Saeed Bin Suroor’s charge has a lot of characteristics often associated with many of the previous winners of this contest and arriving here fresh following a productive period in the desert, he looks to have plenty in his favour. The pick of four sound performances was his runner-up spot behind the much-improved Final Venture on his first run off the plane and a repeat of that level of form is likely to see him far more competitive than his odds imply.

Of those towards the nearside fence, NORMANDY BARRIERE (best price 14-1) has to go onto the shortlist courtesy of his real affinity for today’s track and it could be argued if he was trained by a more established stable, he would be even shorter in the market. Twice a winner here and only once out of the frame in five starts at the Berkshire track, Nigel Tinkler’s warmed up nicely for a tilt at this big pot with a convincing display over the C&D when last seen back in May. Travelling well in behind the speed, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar quickened on demand at the furlong pole and in pulling nicely clear in the closing stages, he scored with plenty in hand. Again another who has form over further than 6f, this rapidly-improved five-year-old looks right at the peak of his powers at the moment and should his connections a big shout providing he ends up being on the right side.

Despite it being a fairly unoriginal selection, THOMAS HOBSON (best price 11-4) is hard to get away from given how easily he scored on day one of the meeting and he can follow in the hoof prints of stable mate Simeon, who did the same double back in 2012. Off what proved to be very strong fractions for a staying contest, Ryan Moore judged the pace to a nicety on Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old and in cutting down his field in tremendous style late on, he powered clear to run out a resounding winner. Likely to be given a similar ride, today’s extra two furlongs should suit even better and providing he’s somewhere near the main pack turning for home, his useful turn of foot can prove to be the key component to victory.

TILLY’S CHILLI (best price 4-1) has been nothing short of a revelation this season and her winning run can continue despite this being another big step up the ladder. Her winning run began back in April with a hard-fought victory at Limerick, but since she’s adopted more positive tactics, she’s been far more impressive. Indeed, last time out at Navan, Jessica Harrington’s filly left her field for dead with a smart turn of foot in the home straight at the Co Kildare venue, so much so that her closing sectional times eclipsed the likes of Haripour (rated 86) and Gold Spinner (rated 87) to the tune of 0.7 seconds and upwards. Racing over a track today which allows front runners to get a breather in at the top of the track, hopefully her change of pace running down the hill and into the straight will be the determining factor once again.

In what looks to be a thoroughly competitive and tricky-to-solve handicap, ICANTSAY (best price 14-1) and POLAR PRESENT (best price 14-1) make the most appeal on value grounds. The former comes out of a race which was a decent one on the figures last time out at Listowel and although he got beaten fair and square by Travertine (probably a worthy favourite on balance), he did more than enough to confirm his current wellbeing. Prior to that solid runner-up berth 19 days ago, the son of Spadoun landed a nice punt on only his second outing for new connections over fences at Punchestown and the combination of 3m and good ground which really suited that day go a long way to convince he will play another leading role today under similar conditions.

The latter is an admirably consistent type and looks booked to go well here following a couple of noteworthy displays in similar big-field handicaps. Unluckily falling three out when going as well as any in the EBF Final at Punchestown two starts back, Seamus Fahey’s inmate looked as though she was about to gain compensation at Ballinrobe last time out until a late burst of speed by the useful Swamp Fox cut her down on the run-in. The way she travelled through that contest, however, indicated she’s right on top of his game at present and with the step back up in trip to 3m likely to suit, this likeable mare is expected to go well again over a track she’s performed well in the past (third in a bumper).

MABS CROSS (NAP) (best price 5-4) is clearly going the right way and arriving here off the back of a dazzling display at Windsor, Michael Dods’ inmate is expected to complete a quick hat trick. Off the mark at the third time of asking at Newcastle, the daughter of Dutch Art clearly benefitted from racing over the minimum trip for the first time and then off an opening mark of 74, she made a mockery of her rating by slamming her seven rivals on handicap debut at Windsor. The feature of that performance at the Berkshire venue was the strong pace resulting in a very fast speed figure and with at least four front runners in the line-up this evening, she should get the perfect platform to enable her turn of foot to come into play at the business end.